Don't worry about Pennsylvania. Well, just a little.

 Field Report from Philadelphia

Philadelphia lawyers are a thing. They have a reputation for being good, sharp, and expensive. Maybe a little crooked in their shrewdness.  One of my college classmates is a Philadelphia lawyer.  He isn't crooked though.  Just shrewd.

He told me he thinks my Sunday blog post is overly pessimistic for Democrats.

Here is what he wrote me:

While I share your concern, the latest problem in Philadelphia does not seem to have had much impact politically.

Timing is, as you know, one of the two conditions precedent in life (the other is cash flow) ---it is so close to the election and the looting and broken glass was limited, in part because of the lousy weather that came upon us.

 

No, if Trump wins in Pennsylvania, it will be for the reasons you laid out – there are a series of issues – race, guns, etc., that seem to be playing a role.

 

If Biden wins Pennsylvania (from my mouth to God’s ears), it will be because of Trump’s negatives, most importantly in the Philadelphia suburbs, particularly among women.  For example, there were four (4) women elected to Congress in the Philly suburbs (Mary Gay Scanlon, Madeline Dean and Chrissy Houlihan) and Lehigh Valley (Susan Wild) – they are all expected to cruise to victory (Dean has supposedly made noise about running for Pat Toomey’s Senate seat in 2022, although our Lieutenant Governor has also suggested he wants to run)

 

I would think that Biden will do better among African Americans that did Clinton with regard to turnout.

 

But I am still worried as always.