Trump Goads and Dares Howard Schultz. Smart

Donald Trump can win re-election in a three person race. And for sure in a four person race.  It is in the works.

Howard Schultz is the stake in the heart of Democrats. 

Democrats continually underestimate Donald Trump. He is so very unpopular--with Democrats. But he is popular with the 35-40% of Americans who love him, and the additional approximately 8% of Republican loyalists who reliably vote with the team. That is the governing plurality that wins elections: about 42-45%

Democrats have a leaky coalition. Trump is making it more leaky.

Third Party on the left. There is a movement underway of leftist populism that rejects the Clinton-Obama coalition and its alliances with modern technology and symbol manipulating industries in Silicon Valley, Hollywood, and Wall Street. They believe Obama-type Democrats were on the right side on the culture war issues, but wrong in supporting economic policies that protected and enriched the 1%. Obama left the middle class to struggle in a low income gig economy in competition with low wage workers around the world. Sanders voiced this critique. There are no "good" billionaires, he said. This message has appeal within the college town and media bubble cities on the left, so the Party is in transition, facing its own version of Tea Party revolt. Michael Moore dresses and acts the part of that blue collar populist, but the actual voice of the new left is Bernie Sanders from the past and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes representing the future in this ascendent world view.

No candidate other than Sanders can fully please this group. There will be another Ralph Nader, another Jill Stein, another someone who voices this message loud and clear. The movement is sore from 2016 and they realize they are growing in strength.

Third Party in the center: Howard Schultz. The Democratic candidate will adopt progressive policies regarding health care, college tuition, and taxes. Progressive policies are now baked into the Democratic nominating process. This move to the left will solidify the positioning of former Starbucks founder and CEO Howard Schultz, a genuine billionaire, who is announcing that as a "lifelong Democrat" he is running as an independent, reflecting, he says centrist policies and a dislike of both current parties. 

He echoes and confirms what will be the Republican message regarding Democrats, that they are too extreme, that they want to tax too much, that they are anti-business, that Medicare For All is too expensive and will take away benefits you currently have. And he will echo partisans on the left who say that political parties--including Democrats--are corrupt.

Schultz has a constituency. He will be voicing essentially the 2008 Obama message of unity and de-partisanship. It is a direct appeal to people who are drawn to an anti-racism, anti-homophobia, pro-women culture war message, but who are, in fact, succeeding in the current economic environment, and for whom the modern gig economy in urban knowledge center cities works well. These are people--more often women--with college degrees and some special skill. They worked hard, got educated, played by the rules, have health care and a 401k. These are medical people, technology workers, government workers, people who sit at desks and look at screens, i.e. Democrats.

The progressive left message says that regular people--the 99%-- have been left behind in the modern economy, and they should feel aggrieved, runs counter to the experience of those successful urbanites. They want improvement, not revolution. They have something to lose.

This large constituency brought Hillary Clinton to a popular vote victory, with big wins in places like Seattle, Portland, Austin, New York City, and Northern Virginia. They won the cities. Those people could be found drinking $5 lattes in Starbucks, using the free wi-fi, answering work emails. 

Obama sounded about right to them. Shultz will sound about right, too.

Donald Trump is doing exactly the right thing to get Howard Schultz to run. He is daring him to run, calling him chicken. It is the most obvious and transparent teenage tactic. Trump understands that at its most fundamental, politics is schoolyard fight over who gets to be king of the hill and that there is an audience surrounding them, watching. He is sticking out his tongue at Schultz.

Schultz may fall for it, only he won't consider it falling for it. He will consider it doing his civic duty. 

Democrats may possibly be able to survive a general election while losing 5-10% of the votes on the left, but if Shultz runs an active campaign,Trump will be re-elected. He takes away some of the anti-Trump, good government, can't-we-get-along vote. Trump is arranging for that right now.

Democrats continually underestimate Donald Trump.