John Kasich is in New Hampshire running for president. He's been there 5 times. (Jeff Merkley has been there 19 times.)
Both have the same niche: the nice guy.
It could work for Kasich.
"Peter--I was in new Hampshire today, meeting with old friends and new supporters, and I spoke about what we can all do to make a difference in our communities during these times of deep partisan division."
E-mail from John Kasich
 |
| John Kasish in Medford |
John Kasich writes me about once a month, reporting some new Trump outrage, and then asking me for money. I got on his list 3 years ago. There is a theme to his updates and solicitations. Trump does something distasteful and Kasich points it out.
In August it was Trump's comments about LeBron James being so stupid he made Don Lemon look smart. (Dog whistle racism.)
In July it was about Trump's $34 billion in new tariffs. (Job killer.)
In June it was about the child-separation policy. (Cruel.)
In August it was Trump's comments about LeBron James being so stupid he made Don Lemon look smart. (Dog whistle racism.)
In July it was about Trump's $34 billion in new tariffs. (Job killer.)
In June it was about the child-separation policy. (Cruel.)
John Kasich has been in New Hampshire five times this year, including this current trip. This one involves a meet-and-greet in Concord and a speech in Manchester. No other Republican has been as open and forward about a presidential exploration, although Jeff Flake has made one speech there this year, on October 1.
For comparison Oregon's Senator Jeff Merkley has been there 19 times and Joe Delaney has been there 35 times. Jeff Merkley has been low key in Oregon about his presidential campaign trips and this may be new information to Oregon readers.
I consider Merkley and Kasich both to be pursuing similar tracks in long shot campaigns. Both peg their hopes that by the fall of 2019 the public will have become throughly sick and tired of the Donald Trump high drama schtick. Both are the opposite-of-Trump candidates. The quiet, earnest candidate, the civility candidate.
 |
| Kasich, May 2016 |
This is a familiar dramatic trope, a love triangle, a cliche that embeds a fundamental truth about attraction and choices. By the rules of romantic comedies,Trump is the exciting fling, the rogue boyfriend, a mis-step taken by the girl who chooses the unreliable but oddly attractive guy. After a period of bad-boy infatuation, the girl realizes his selfishness and dishonesty gets himself and others in trouble. She realizes she was a fool.
Meanwhile, the good guy was there all along, the boyfriend who was honest and true, the less flashy one, the one the audience knew all along was right for the the girl if she would only come to her senses. Some crisis comes along and opens her eyes.
We know that story. We have seen versions of it. It rings true to people.
Meanwhile, the good guy was there all along, the boyfriend who was honest and true, the less flashy one, the one the audience knew all along was right for the the girl if she would only come to her senses. Some crisis comes along and opens her eyes.
We know that story. We have seen versions of it. It rings true to people.
It is not hopeless for Kasich. It just takes a certain chain of plausible events, starting with a major reversal of fortune for Trump that causes him not to run for re-election, or to run for re-election while deeply impaired by circumstances. It could be something from the Mueller investigation, some health event, some family crisis, some geo-political or economic event, lousy polls, GOP defections--all easily imagined events. Trump does high risk things and bad things sometimes happen to risk takers. Under those circumstances those Republicans who clung to Trump (e.g. Pence or Cruz) are weakened by the association.
Kasich would be Mr. Clean, the one who didn't get suckered in by Trump.
Kasich would be Mr. Clean, the one who didn't get suckered in by Trump.
Under those circumstances the leading candidates would be Kasich and Mitt Romney, a tough head-to-head that Kasich might win. John Kasich would be the one who had not previously run and lost, the one who didn't go hat in hand to Trump Tower.
 |
| Kasich in New Hampshire, Nov. 2015 |
Democratic voters are likely to have many choices, starting with the old, familiar faces (Bernie, Hillary, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden) or one of the new faces (Beto O'rourke, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Mitch Landrieu, or the other candidates who are showing up in New Hampshire including Delany, Martin O'Malley (9 visits), Julian Castro (6 visits), Eric Swalwell (5 visits).
Merkley has a harder task because he has competition for the role of quiet good boy.
Merkley has a harder task because he has competition for the role of quiet good boy.
In movies, the exciting bad boy eventually gets exposed and the good boy gets the girl. Kasich has a shot.
But in the real world of American politics Trump still has his base. He does things Kasich finds distasteful, but that is what voters like about Trump.
3 comments:
The notion of a challenge from the "establishment" GOP is so adorable!
Watch them scramble over themselves to thread the needle and not be excoriated for being "closet Democrats". So cute! So tell me what will they run on? Let me guess...could it be?...TAX BREAKS!
I seriously doubt Kasich, whose record in Ohio rivals Scott Walker's', can present himself as a moderate, whatever that means anymore. His "aw shucks" facade, aside from being extremely annoying, camouflages a desperate ambition that will, I predict, lead him to start wooing Trump cultists the moment he realizes there's no plurality left in the Republican party. Hint: Look for "protect the borders" rhetoric around Memorial Day.
Thank you for our comments!!!! ...thoughtful, very apt
This swing from bad boy to nice guy was the story of my relationships! Well Ok, I married the nice guy, but didn't end up there, either! I was discontented, and divorced. (Well,for me, alone is better than those swings!),
So, for president, I don't think "Mr (or MS) nice guy" will do. We need some combination personality type, or else some new fiery opponent will come along, - again!
Post a Comment