Kate Brown, Democrat. Knute Buehler, Republican.

The talk radio host assures his listeners Buehler is just pandering.

"Listening to Knute Buehler. . .  I was ready to throw up.  He's not a super conservative guy.  He's trying to pander. He has to get a whole lot of libs to cross the aisle, and it isn't always pretty."

                                             Bill Meyer, AM talk radio host, describing the debate

Debate setup: Kate Brown, KOBI General Manager, Knute Buehler

Readers can watch the debate for themselves: Click Here.

In the TV debate Kate Brown confirmed what we already knew. She is a Democrat.

The debate gave us insight into the more complicated case of Knute Buehler. He has to perform a tricky act: sound like a Democrat and vote like a Republican, and keep everyone happy.


Kate Brown's answers were predictable to people who follow progressive politics. She is a liberal, progressive, pro-reproductive rights, pro-immigrant Democrat, who supports education as a transformational elevator out of poverty, and access to health care as a human right which should be extended broadly. Her answers to questions reflected this. 

Knute Buehler's situation required careful listening. From time to time he sounded something like Kate Brown. That is what dismayed the conservative talk-radio host.

 Democrat

Buehler sounds moderate and independent-minded. 

One way to do this is by taking visible progressive stances on issues that you cannot change. A panelist asked: How do you feel about the Judge Kavanaugh nomination? Kate Brown's answer was predictable: she opposed it. So did Knute Buehler and sounded like a US Senate Democrat. In answer to another question he said he wished Congressional Republicans had passed an immigration bill. 

This is cost-free signaling--striking a progressive tone in places where you have no vote and little influence.

On state issues he talks progressive, but is voting with the Republican team. He does this by explaining his vote as motivated by progressive values and goals. He voted against the bipartisan transportation package, money for infrastructure. "It was too small," he said. 

He criticized the cost of PERS obligations of the state employees and says he will lower them somehow--but voices that his motivation is to pay state employees more. 

Republican

He says he is pro-choice, but supports Ballot Measure 106 which disallows abortion as a service in any Oregon's various health plan, involving about a quarter of Oregon's population. 

He said he is pro-immigrant, but voted against in-state tuition for DACA youth and supports Measure 105 which reverses the long-standing Oregon policy of not turning non-violent undocumented offenders over to federal immigration authorities. He describes himself this way: "I'm going to vote for Measure 105, but its not a priority for me." 

Knute Buehler presents a balancing act. There is a bit of something for everyone in his positions, and voters can hear what they want to hear. Many people find him personally appealing--Rhodes Scholar doctor from Bend--so they may want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Kate Brown's task in the debate was to pin him down and reveal his votes and note the Republican buried within the progressive message. She, aided by the debate format of detailed questions, succeeded.

Coming from the opposite direction was the talk show host, saying Buehler and Brown presented a binary choice., Brown wanted people to see Buehler as--at bottom--the Republican alternative in a binary choice.   Click: minute 2:39

Jordan Cove. There was one controversial issue in which Buehler is forthright, the Jordan Cove pipeline project. Buehler supports it, saying it would "transform [for the better] not only Coos County but most of Southern Oregon, not only economically but socially. He said "I will be the governor who will beat down the barriers, [and] sign the permits." Meanwhile, Kate Brown is non-committal, pulled one way by union groups who support it, and the other way by environmental groups, in opposition.

In the debate Buehler brought it up on his own. Brown was silent about the project.

Demonstrators outside the debate

The Jordan Cove LNG pipeline project owners have begun significant advertising locally. Click: Here's an example   For two years all the visible agitation on the project came from the opponents, people who filled Town Hall meetings with anti-pipeline signs, and the weight of public opinion appeared to be in opposition. Support was vague and unmotivated. Opposition was adamant. 

The issue is a risk for each candidate. Brown may lose Democratic votes from both sides, union and environmentalist. Those demonstrators aren't trying to influence Buehler, a lost cause. They are pressuring Brown, and they show up repeatedly at her events. However, Buehler may be giving environmentalists a reason to vote for Brown.

The debate clarified the difference between the candidates: Democrat vs. Republican. Knute Buehler's messaging is moderate in comparison with his Republican primary opponents, but when it comes down to votes, the distinction evaporates. He is part of a larger team of Republican officeholders and activists who reflect the new, conservative populist tone of the GOP in this Trump era. That political environment pushes Buehler to the right in places where it matters, votes.