Pathway to victory: Jennifer Neahring

Jennifer Neahring, Member of Congress, Oregon 2nd Congressional District.  It could happen.

First, she needs to win the May primary.  

She is a 50-ish female doctor, and this is the "year of the woman" in politics. She says she has natural credibility and an issue that resonates.

She is new at politics and Jim Crary and Jamie Macleod-Skinner were at it long before she got into the race. She thinks she is coming from behind.

Neahring at a round table of physicians

She believes that of all the Democratic candidates she "matches up" best against incumbent Greg Walden. The availability and cost of health care is the number one issue in the District, she said, and Greg Walden actions are indefensible. She says she is the one with credibility to make that case. 

"He may have been representing us before, but he lost his way," she told a group of doctors this week.

She has toughened up her language. She said that in his Town Meetings in the District he promised he would protect people getting health care through the Medicaid expansion and people who had pre-existing conditions. In fact, he signed onto GOP repeal plans. She said he is stuck with an indefensible record. 

"He lied to us about what he was going to do. He is much more beholden to Republican Party politics than he is to the District."

No cowboy boots. She says she connects with the district looking and acting just like she has looked and acted her entire professional career, like a caring professional.  She said she doesn't need to dress like a rancher to look like she belongs, and she is what she is, a member of a profession, no apologies or dress up.  Healthcare workers are some 15% of the economy, she said, and the local hospital is one of the largest employers in every community in the District. Physicians--indeed all health care workers--are familiar and trusted in the 2nd District.

I observed a well respected local physician, Bruce Van Zee, "do the ask" at a gathering of physicians. He said this election really mattered. He said we needed people in Congress who actually understood the health care issue. He said he telephoned Neahring's previous work place and talked to the nurses, checking up on her. "Nurses really know who the good people are, and they know who treats patients and staff with respect."  The crowd murmured agreement. "They said they loved Jenni, that she was great with patients, their families, and with co-workers."  

House party fundraiser

He urged the crowd of about forty to give generously. I watched people write checks for her campaign.

And now she is getting around the District, talking with people.  She drives a Lexus, she said, and it has 200,000 miles on it so far.

She says the money she is raising will allow her, thanks to great ads which will reveal who she is, to become known in the District and win a plurality in the primary. She says Democratic voters will "get it" that she is the one with credibility to make the case that Walden represented the GOP caucus, not his District.

Then, she needs to win the November general election.

She is confident the national party will help fund her general election campaign, since she will be understood to be credible, and Walden vulnerable. Greg Walden has money raised nationally; she will have national money.  For the first time in his career, Walden will have a well-funded opponent, with money made possible by his being a visible leader in a dysfunctional GOP caucus, and therefore a national target and symbol. 

Neahring notes that Democrats can win in the District. Senator Ron Wyden carried the 2nd District in his most recent Senate win. Walden represents GOP failure, serving in a GOP caucus that cannot keep a Speaker, and which cannot govern due to fractures within it.  

What if she loses in November?

I expect her to run again. She has accepted a mental challenge to do something big and bold to change our health care system, and serving in office is it. She repeats this challenge to herself every time I have heard her speak.

Maybe she will not have to defeat Walden.  He wounded himself , but he has options. He may stick around and try to defend what may now be a marginal seat for him. He may join the other GOP leaders (Boehner, Canter, now Ryan) who leave Congress to cash in as a lobbyist or investment banker. Possibly his District map will change in the face of re-districting with the addition of a new representative for Oregon--going from 5 to 6. 

There are pathways. She may have to defeat Walden, or she may end up being elected and then being lobbied by him, or she may end up serving with him in the Oregon delegation as the 6th Member.  There are several ways this could work out for her.

She has a shot.


[Note: Readers have questioned whether I have a favorite candidate in this race. Not yet. I see positive things about all of them. I have made contributons to 4 of the 7 candidates so far, reflecting not who I want to win, but instead my sense of obligation to help Democratic candidates get contributions. I was a candidate for office some decades ago and I wished there were people who would show up at events and just write a check.  Now I try to be that person I wanted to find back then.]