Trump has done a better job selling the economic rebound than did Obama.
The stock market is way up.
Stocks are one measurement of the economy and of mood. It measures the sentiment of the investor class. The markets are up.
Stock investors are happy right now. Portfolios are up. Technology stocks are way up, financials are solidly up, and the only sector that is lagging is the one sector that Trump made a special point of advocating for: energy. Energy stocks are flat.
Pipeline stocks--in the midst of Trump being a champion for the Keystone and other pipelines--are actually down. Strange.
Donald Trump positioned himself as having been inaugurated amid "this American carnage." Everything was a disaster: economy, trade, military, jobs. In fact we were in a long steady rebound, but Trump was adamant that things were terrible so he set the bar low. It was excellent strategy. Beginning immediately he pointed to essentially the same information (stock market up, job growth continuing, unemployment low) and said look at the progress! It was me!
Trump is defining himself as the cause of a great economy. Trump supporters are saying it. Orrin Hatch said he may well be "the best president ever."
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| FOX: The trend line is described as a new beginning. |
The Trump media echoes this meme. Trump equals prosperity.
Democrats need to face one non-fake reality: the economy is still improving, business activity seems to be growing, and the stock market is up. There is optimism in the financial and real estate markets.
Trump is talking credit for it. Trump knows how to take credit for good news. He also knows how to cast blame on others for bad news. Trump now owns the bull market and he will attempt to make Democrats own the next slowdown or recession or bear market.
The next Democratic leaders need to be ready with their own narratives: The Trump Recession. The Trump Chaos. The Trump Crisis. The Trump Carnage. Trump Trickle Down Disaster.
It is what Trump would do.
The stock market does not measure the mood "of Americans." It measures the mood of investors, the top 5% of incomes, and their evaluation of the prospects for business.
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| Most people are not investors. |
No doubt many Democrats watched the White House lawn party of Trump and were dismayed at the characterization of the tax bill as a middle class tax cut. It seemed like misdirection and slight of hand to them. In fact many middle class Americans will get a tax cut. Poorer Americans will lose benefits and very wealthy Americans will do very well, but in fact Americans at the median income, especially ones who take the standard deduction, will see a tax cut. This is a messaging battle and Trump and Republicans are focusing on the small win for the middle class and they are selling it hard.
Democrats run the risk of looking like nay-sayers. They do not yet have the "same old trickle down" narrative down pat. Polls suggest the public knows they are being conned, but they are partly in on the con. They do in fact get something.
Republicans could win this message war. The public may well forgive Trump's midnight tweets and a spirit of chaos if they think that it is shaking things up and making America prosperous and that they are sharing in it, at least a little That is the dominant Trump message.
Democrats need to recognize this. Trump is good at selling. There was nothing special about a Trump steak, but Trump said it was special and sold it at a premium price, and people bought it for a while.
3 comments:
It's a convenient side benefit of a two party system. One side can take credit and or blame the other for whatever is going on. It should be ignored. Obama downplayed taking responsibility for the economy other than to point out the facts of the moment because he knew that as a general rule government does not have that great of an effect.
I wasn't paying as close attention during the Bush tax cut, but this sure looks like the same thing. I personally got a check I wasn't expecting.
That ended well...
Republicans are celebrating because they believe they have boxed in Democrats by giving a handout to their base, who ironically and hypocritically purport to be against government handouts. They probably won't notice the resultant inflation and can't intellectually process the concept of government debt, deficits and income inequality. They "got" nothing but a pyrrhic victory over the minorities and elites they fear.
Only a market crash (unlikely) and resultant recession will demonstrate the fraud of "trickle down". The economy will return to the mean eventually, hopefully sooner than later. But the danger of a prolonged recession is also a strong possibility.
Yes, and I am the most beautiful woman in the world. Saying it doesn't make it so......people have eyes.
An element of the new tax bill that's received little comment (that I've noticed, anyway). The big increase in the standard deduction means millions of Americans--10s of millions?--will no longer itemize their deductions. Which means they get no tax benefit from donating to non-profits. Which means what, for many many worthy non-profits that operate on a razor-thin financial edge?
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