The Lindsay Graham problem

Polls show Lindsay Graham has a tough re-election race.  

For some reason Republicans in South Carolina are not fully on board with him.

Lindsay Graham looked at me and asked if I were the one who had asked him a question at a meeting the night before. I said I was.

We were in a small conference room at the office of a law firm. About a dozen people attended the event, 6 of them office staff of the lawyers pulled in at the last minute to try to fill the room. At least there was someone there who seemed interested in what he had to say.  He noted that I was at a second event in 12 hours. I said I was in New Hampshire attending presidential campaign events. 

"So you're a political tourist," he said.

Lindsay Graham was easy to follow in New Hampshire in 2015 and 2016. He had lots of events and hardly anyone showed up. 

In South Carolina I attended events for Republican primary voters, a Tea Party convention, a Presidential Debate focus group televised by CNN, and a meeting of Charleston Republican activists. 

GOP activists seemed eager to tell me a big secret. I was circulating around the room, introducing myself as a "political tourist", mentioning Lindsay Graham. Three different times the activists--mostly married couples--leaned toward me to say, quietly, "Don't you know? Lindsay Graham is a faggot."

That was the word they used, each time. "Faggot." 

They lowered their voices, not out of unease at using an epithet. "Faggot" was simply their term, said casually, without apparent shame or awkwardness in using the word, only in Graham's behavior they suspected. They spoke quietly because they were letting me--the naive outsider from Oregon--know the open secret everyone in political circles in South Carolina knew. Each couple then went on to tell me that Graham wasn't all that popular, that they held their noses to vote for him. 

Republican focus group, Charleston, SC

Three couple do not constitute data. They are anecdotes. But they tell me an undercurrent in the air, a tasty rumor worth bringing up to circulate. 

Democrats think they have an opportunity. Grassroots donors have responded to daily emails asking for money to stop Lindsay Graham, and it has flooded Jamie Harrison's campaign with money. Democrats are motivated. Graham's switched from friend of McCain, skeptic of Trump, and opponent of late term appointments to the Supreme Court into a Trump cheerleader. He is the Senate Chair leading the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation. It seems so nakedly unprincipled. So hypocritical. Democrats see Lindsay Graham as a classic Trump enabler and sycophant.

South Carolina was America's historic center for Southern resistance to Northern culture and political power. John Calhoun, Southern thought leader and defender of slavery, was a South Carolina Senator. Auctions in Charleston served the slave market for the Upper South. Strom Thurmond represented South Carolina for 48 years, until his death in 2003. There is a deep race history in South Carolina and Party affiliation is largely color-coded, with Republicans being the party of Whites, Democrats being the Party of Blacks. Black voters are 28% of the electorate. A Democrat gets to 45% of the vote by combining the overwhelming majority of Black voters, plus some White liberals. They lose. It is a White majority state.

But it is complicated. Their governor was Nickie Haley, a Republican and a brown- skinned woman of Indian heritage. Their new Senator, there by appointment to fill a vacancy, is a Black conservative. It is culturally conservative, as well as being White. Lindsay Graham cannot just coast into re-election. 

Donald Trump is more popular in South Carolina than in the country as a whole, with a 50% approval rating and a net favorability of zero. Trump will win the state's electoral votes. Lindsay Graham runs behind him, with a net favorability of minus-8. Various recent polls reported in FiveThirtyEight indicate support among Republicans of 84%, 89%, and 76%. Graham is missing a critical piece of the Republican coalition. 

Will this tip the election to Democrat Jamie Harrison? Probably not. Graham is a White Republican. Democrats across the country willingly give Harrison money, reflecting their frustration with Graham having become a Trump toady. Republicans will almost certainly "come home" to Graham for the same reason Democrats dislike him: at bottom Graham will do what he needs to do to please Trump-supporting Republicans. 

Graham's real risk is in the Republican primary. There is something about Graham. I don't hear about it in the media. The subject is forbidden. But I got an earful one-to-one.

Field Report: Michigan

Guest Post: A view on the ground in suburban Michigan

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

Election ground zero: suburban Michigan

Octobers are different in swing states. I experienced it myself in October 2016, when I watched television beamed into New Hampshire. Ads for Hillary, then Trump, then Hillary--every commercial break. An unflattering black and white photograph of the opponent, with scary music and commentary of some unspeakable personal or policy error, then a transition to happy music, bright colors, and the candidate of choice. Hillary narrowly won New Hampshire. The campaigning mattered there.

The campaign matters in Michigan this year because the winner of the 2020 election will almost certainly win Michigan, and the loser will lose it. Michigan is one of the three Upper Midwest tipping point states, along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Whoever wins one will likely win all three because they are geographically and politically close. At stake is whether Black urban voters in Detroit turn out--they didn't in 2016--and whether White working class non-voters decide to turn out in force for Trump--there are lots more who could--and whether suburban women are sufficiently turned off by Trump to switch from Trump to Biden--and polls show they might.

Together they have the 46 electoral votes. As the Upper Midwest goes, so goes the nation.

Guest Post by Anonymous: 

I happen to be in Michigan because of a medical situation that has arisen in my family. I was curious to see whether Michigan would lean towards Trump in the upcoming election. In 2016, trump won Michigan by 13,000 votes, or 0.03% of the total vote. Hillary Clinton didn’t even bother to campaign in Michigan in 2016 because Michigan, home of organized labor in the auto industry, had previously reliably voted Democratic in the past. 

During my plane trip on Alaska airlines, I was relieved to see that almost everyone at the airport was wearing a mask. During my first day in Michigan, almost everyone at the grocery store also wore masks. 

I took a long walk in the neighborhood I grew up in, trying to discern whether there were more Trump signs or a Biden campaign signs. I took the photograph below before my cell phone battery died. Several Biden and Harris yard signs stand right next-door to a Trump and Pence sign. There is also a sign in the Trump yard that says “My governor is an idiot. Pure moron.“ 

Today it was announced that 13 individuals were arrested for conspiring to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. The plot was discovered on social media and then infiltrated by an FBI informant. The group trained with weapons and improvised explosives, and planned to abduct Whitmer from her summer vacation home. The leader talked of needing 200 men to storm the Michigan capital. Some of the men identify as anarchists or Trump supporters and are part of a group called “the wolverine watchmen.“. One of the plotters is actually from my hometown. 

Both Whitmer and Biden condemned the group and also President Trump for failing to denounce white supremacists during the presidential debate last week. Both Whitmer and Biden said “Words matter.“

Most of the commercials on TV here are political ads, although my mother says that she has already marked her ballot. Ironically, Trump is running only one ad, which is a group of police officers saying that Trump supports law and order but Biden doesn’t. One of the officers appears to have a three day stubble of beard. Biden is running about three different ads on coronavirus, the economy, and how Trump is going to reduce Social Security payments to seniors.

Other commercials are for Democratic incumbent Senator Gary Peters and his Black Republican opponent, John James. James is running against Peters as a former US Army captain and business person, framing Peters as a career politician. One ad shows a sweaty James running an obstacle course with his army buddies. According to real politics, James is polling 5% behind Peters. Other ads include the negative ad against congresswoman Haley Stevens, first elected in 2018. The ad states that Stevens votes with “the squad” 93% of the time. Another ad shows her in pink gloves making a frantic and hurried speech in Congress, implying that she is deranged. Real politics has her polling 6% above her opponent, who apparently is not airing any TV commercials. These ads and the “My governor is an idiot“ yard sign make me think that misogyny is more at play than racism in this election. That would also explain Hillary‘s loss in 2016.

On balance, I would say the Trump and Biden yard signs are roughly equal. This makes sense, as 51% of my town voted democratic in the 2016 presidential election, and 43% voted Republican. My town has changed since I went to high school here some 40 years ago. Then, there is only one Black kid, and only during the senior year of my high school. Now there are many more Black faces, and I saw an interracial touch football game during my walk down the street. Census data says that the town is now 5% Black and 6% Hispanic. 

 The new pastor at my mother’s Lutheran church is a lesbian, and it doesn’t seem to matter to my mother or to the rest of the congregation. She says the pastor’s wife is nice. Maybe times have changed.

I saw one handmade yard sign during my walk, which said “don’t vote demo-rat.” My brother saw one that said “don’t buy Don.“ (get it?: Bi-den). The ones that amaze me are the huge Trump flags that say “no more bullshit.“ 

 Kind of vague and infantile, but visceral as opposed to intellectual. Divisiveness is definitely present, but maybe we can get through this election without armed violence. That is, if law enforcement continues to do its job in ferreting out anarchists, whether on the right or the left.

Quick test: What color do you see?

Here is an experiment on perception. What colors are the shoes and laces?

Some people are quite certain about what they see: a pink shoe and white laces. 

Others see a gray shoe with mint green laces.


This astonishes me. I myself see gray and green, and I see no possible way for people to see pink and white. They are mistaken, I think. They must be deluded, in a cult, in a silo of alternative facts.

Meanwhile, according to Gallup: 44% of Americans think that President Trump has the right personality and temperament to be president.

The question did not ask if they agreed with Trump on issues--49% did, compared to 46% for Biden. Nor did the question ask if they approved of Trump's handling of the job of president generally--46% did, in a poll just before the presidential debate. This question focused on the suitability of Trump's personality and temperament. 

For five years this blog has attempted to discern what is the "magic sauce" that elevated him into the presidency. Many people--particularly ones with a college degree, people who consider themselves moderates, centrists, or leftist in their politics, and people whose media consumption consists of sources generally considered "mainstream"--have a hard time believing that other Americans could like Trump's personality and temperament. 

Sure, voters who don't like Trump might grudgingly admit that they, or others, might think immigration has gotten out of control, and they can see how Trump might have appeal to some people on that issue. They might think our international interventionism has been incautious and gotten us into quagmires, and they know that position has some appeal generally. They might be frustrated with the puritanism and intolerance they see in woke political correctness, and see how Trump might get political traction there. Even people on the populist-progressive anti-establishment left saw things to like in his talk of cleaning the swamp of corporate cronyism. In short, even strongly anti-Trump voters see how Trump might win some votes on issues--the judges maybe. 

But to think that his personality and temperament are suitable? His grandiosity. His divisiveness. His narcissism. His partisan tribalism. His exaggerations. His casual dishonesty. His crudeness. His astonishing self-centeredness. His lack of empathy. These traits are not hidden or disguised. Trump does not apologize for who he is. Could people possibly look at Trump's personality and temperament and see someone remotely suitable to be president?

Yes, a lot of people. Not quite a majority, maybe, but 44%.

A retired orthopedic surgeon in Southern Oregon sends me e-mail chains and links that reiterate his belief that Trump is carrying out the great work of Jesus Christ. He wants to share the truth. He says Trump has the " stamina, wealth, personality, and now passion and perseverance to do so, but he is one of the few individuals in history who may be able to do it and unite this country again." He sees Trump as a national uniter. Really.

He linked a recent e-mail to this campaign speech by Trump. He said the "only course" for America might require "an open revolution." The video is included in an article that says that the gloves have come off and that citizens are "throwing down the gauntlet for all out war" and warning the 2020 election would be the "most violent" of elections.

His perception of this speech was favorable. I see the speech as the dangerous talk of an authoritarian nationalist. People see different things. Some perfectly intelligent people see those shoes as pink. 

Click below to see what stirs the heart of some Americans. 

Click here.

The Trump Crisis

 Four big things. 

Events are breaking bad for Trump.  Three things hurt him. One could help.

Disclaimer: Nothing is over until it is over, and it isn't over.

Problem One for Trump.  COVID isn't going away.  Trump's position on the virus is clear. He has played it down. In the best characterization of it, he didn't want to panic us. A worse characterization is that he lied to us to keep the stock market up, and it killed 200,000 Americans. He mostly dismisses as unnecessary--and unmanly--social distancing and masks. He said the cure is worse than the disease. Trump says not to let the virus "dominate you" and assures us month after month that a vaccine will be here soon.

But the vaccine isn't here and the disease is. Trump looks incompetent on something important, and meanwhile COVID is in our faces, impossible to ignore. This has moved the polls. 

Problem Two for Trump.  His temperament has passed the tipping point of acceptable. Trump has always been Trump. Pugnacious, dominating, bullying, grandiose, an exaggerator, a fighter for his team. Self identified Christians had no illusion that Trump was Christ-like in his character or behavior, but they perceived him to be fighting for Christians. White Christians are a huge demographic. The Access Hollywood "grab them by the pussy" video didn't stop Trump. His supporters already knew he was a womanizing scoundrel and were willing to overlook it because he had the important thing right: he was on the side of White native-born American Christians.

What is different now is that his behavior doesn't just seem like a private matter between himself and his wives, bondholders, bankers, or vendors. He has gotten wilder, more chaotic, more obviously self-interested, and it is clear he is conning American citizens--us. His fight-picking and exaggerations are create civil discord and distractions, and he keeps doing it anyway. His tweeting, name calling, hyperbolic descriptions of others, have ramped up for the campaign. 

There is a critical group of voters who generally like what Trump does but have gotten turned off of Trump. He seems distracted and unreliable, and most recently, perhaps under medication, almost unhinged. The polls moved further against him.

Problem Three for Trump.  He is over-exposed. There is such a thing as too much publicity. I have experienced it. Back in the days when people used to listen to music on AM radio a song would be a hit, and DJs would play it often. Too often.  Alvin and the Chipmunks sang a Christmas song. At first it was curious and fun, then irritating. Trump has become Alvin.

Trump got something very, very right in 2015 and 2016: he was interesting. His Republican primary opponents complained bitterly that he "sucked up all the oxygen." If Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio were finally asked a question by a reporter, the question would be "What do you think about Trump?" Cable news would spend a half hour with the image of an empty lectern. The audience stood by,, not wanting to miss a second of Trump.

As president Trump continues doing something outrageous and interesting every day. Trump brought the instincts of a TV reality show producer to the campaign and presidency. He still gets high ratings. He is, after all, doing the political equivalent of chopping off the heads of Democrats and other opponents every day, and executions draw a crowd. But at some point even a guillotine show becomes tiresome. This, too, moved the polls.

One positive for Trump. His is the optimist, communicating back to work and back to normal life pre-virus. Trump says he is healthy again, and wants to be out doing his job.  He speaks for a lot of people who want to get back to work, who have bills to pay, businesses to run, jobs to do, schools to attend, friends to see, bars and restaurants and football games to enjoy. A great many people rather take the risks than remain with their lives on hold. 

Polls may be missing the potential swing vote among people who don't vote, but could, that non-college White voter. The bottom 20% of the workforce has been hit the hardest by COVID shutdowns. Restaurant workers. Hotel workers. Retail clerks. Many aren't considered "likely voters" by pollsters because they didn't vote 4 years ago. Polls tabulate the shift in the votes of suburban women put off by Trump's drama and seniors worried about COVID, but don't necessarily register the whale under the surface. It is apparent even to the un-engaged "low information" voter which candidate is on their side. Trump is the back-to-work guy, and "it's the economy, stupid." We could be surprised again.

Will these potential voters save the day for Trump? Young, economically distressed voters may not be available to him. Young people grew up amid diversity. They had Michael Jordan posters up in their bedrooms, and Obama was president. Contraception and abortion access are taken for granted. Biden is hopelessly out of touch with them, but Trump actively turns them off.

The 2020 election has a new endgame feel to it beginning this week.

Trump recently amped up the drama with the balcony photos, with 40-minute calls to Fox, with tweets, with stronger comments about Biden and Harris. The White House is a COVID hotspot. The polls look bad. Pence interrupted, mansplained, and talked over both Harris and the moderator. Virus deaths and infections continue. White nationalists militiamen plot to kidnap and kill a Michigan governor. Trump says he won't debate. Trump said he wanted a stimulus deal, then he didn't, and today again said he does. Trump's talk of voter fraud, cheating, illegal voting, and a rigged election telegraph that he plans to disrupt the vote count. Chaos.

Things fall apart. There is a feeling of anarchy and collapse circling in the air.

Buttigieg destroys Fox News

 This is what a smart, poised candidate for president sounds like.

Caucus goers in Iowa and voters in New Hampshire gave Buttigieg a tie with Bernie Sanders at 28 percent of the vote. Then voters in South Carolina decided to go with the guy with experience and deep connections to Black voters. Democrats chose Biden. 

Voters in the United States may not have been ready for Pete Buttigieg in 2020.  He has time to develop a resume. This is a head's up toward the future. He knows how to handle himself with the media and I expect we will see a lot more of him.

Pow!

Click: 52 seconds

Trump could win it--or steal it.

History says Trump will win. Why? Because it is still his turn. 

The pendulum gives him 8 years.

History is on Trump's side, but Trump's behavior may have ruined his shot at re- election.

He has a Plan B.  Get the courts to invalidate the vote.

I am writing this while watching the Vice Presidential debate. Both are doing fine. Kamala Harris looks sharp and articulate. Mike Pence sounds decent and sane. Each VP candidate is the puzzle piece that repairs the limitations of the presidential candidates. If Biden seemed just a little sharper and more articulate he would be a much stronger candidate. If Trump seemed decent and sane, so would he.

Guest Post author Thad Guyer warns my Democratic readers not to get comfortable  reading the polls. Americans have a long history of wanting a certain kind of president to address problems that grew during the eight-year term of the predecessor. Reagan is replaced by Bill Clinton, who is replaced by George W. Bush, who is replaced by Obama, who is replaced by Trump. It isn't destiny, but it is a pattern. The pattern reflects the fact that it takes eight years, not four, to create a full repair of whatever issues were created by a predecessor, and then eight years for that repair job to create its own issues..

I have a simpler explanation. It takes eight years for people to get totally fed up. Not every reality show has staying power, and Trump is the example of that. I disagree with Thad Guyer. Trump disturbed the oscillation pattern. 

People got tired of the Trump Show in just four years. It isn't that Trump's White ethno-nationalism, anti-abortion judges, tax policies, and authoritarianism don't have appeal to a big segment of Americans. They do. It is just that Trump-the-Tweeter is too much. Too over the top. Too rude. Too much a bully. Too self-absorbed. Too dishonest. Too divisive. Too crazy. Too manic. He tweeted over 90 times on Tuesday, and during a 56-minute period Tuesday evening I watched him tweet 9 times on 7 different topics. It seems weird. Unwell.

Guyer is an attorney with an international practice representing employees who blow the whistle on their employers. He follows developments in election law. He warns Democrats about the Trump Plan B. With the right court decisions Trump can circumvent the vote, and he has just the Supreme Court he needs to do it.

Guest Post by Thad Guyer

 
“Dead Man Walking on Zoom: The Democratic Party”

Sensational polls is the opiate of the masses in the 2020 Democratic Party, as it was in 2016. In 1935, George Gallup launched his political polling company and made a fortune syndicating it to the news media. Americans generally understand that polls are generic click bait to sell advertising. Still, when faced with a second Trump term, we need solace and pretend we believe the new NBC poll showing Biden with a runaway 14 point lead, while two of the top five 2016 polls fluctuate from Trump having a 1 point lead, to Biden leading by 2.7, all within the margin of error. (See, IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen polls).

Thad Guyer

But that’s not why we are dead man walking. The Supreme Court is. Gore lost to Bush because the historic election models show that since proposal of the 22nd Amendment, no president has been denied a second term if he succeeded a two term president of the other party. The only issue in 2020 is whether there is a second exception to this tic toc of electoral history—a pandemic exception. This first exception is “the third term” where a vice president keeps his party in power for 12 years, as George H.W. Bush did after Reagan, but that Al Gore failed to do after Bill Clinton. If there is any exception that would allow Biden to win, it must be this never before seen phenomenon—a pandemic exception.

Democrats have used Covid-19 to accomplish what they have not after three decades been able to get most state GOP legislatures to do—dramatically expand vote by mail. We have gotten Obama and Clinton judges to do that for us, but our success is fleeting. It is now apparent that the pandemic exception is extremely unlikely to occur because of the Supreme Court. The GOP justices are already invalidating ballots in bulk. From the New Yorker article “The Legal Fight Awaiting Us After the Election” (Sept. 1, 2020), it is easy to see that the Supreme Court will invalidate 10% or more of mail in ballots. The article interviews election law lawyers, professors and experts, many of whom were involved and Bush v. Gore. 200 lawsuits filed by both sides are already pending. The belief is that since most Americans will want an end to the litigation and recounts, we will want the Supreme Court to rule, and most of us will want Biden to concede to that judgment as Al Gore did two decades ago "to save the nation".

On October 5, 2020, the Supreme Court in Andino v. Middleton handed down its third order preventing Democrats from invoking Covid-19 as a justification to overrule traditional restrictions on mail ballots. The Court effectively invalidated about 10% of the mail in votes in South Carolina for not complying with state law requiring the signature of a witness. See, New York Times, “Supreme Court Revives Witness Requirement for South Carolina Absentee Ballots” (Oct. 5, 2020). Just three months earlier on July 2, 2020, the Court ruled in Merrill v. Alabama that states do not have to loosen ballot restrictions because of the virus. See, Washington Post, “Supreme Court says Alabama Does not Have to Loosen Ballot Restrictions” (July 2, 2020). Three months before that the Court ruled in RNC v. DNC that only the state legislature, not the governor or secretary of state, can modify postmark and date of receipt rules on mail ballots. See, ABA, “Voting Wars Reach the Supreme Court” (Apr. 13, 2020) decrying the Court’s “decision to force voters to choose between protecting their health or exercising the right to vote.” Next up is “GOP Takes Pennsylvania Court’s Ballot Deadline to U.S. Supreme Court” (LA Times, Sept. 2020).

To counteract Chief Justice Robert’s tepid efforts to appear unbiased by breaking with the four stalwart conservatives, Amy Coney Barrett will take her seat on the Court in the next 30 days after a vote by Zoom since so many GOP Senators are sick with the virus.

Unless there is a pandemic exception to the electoral 8 year/8 year pendulum, it will be dead man walking on Zoom for the Democratic Party.

Debate quirk

Housefly on Mike Pence.

Distraction.

Both candidates are doing fine. Just what I expected. This debate is interesting to me but will change nothing.

About half way into the debate, a housefly.