Ukrainians are war-weary and want fighting to stop.
They still support their president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The media's attention is on the leaders. Who looked weak? Who did a better job of flattering whom, Trump or Putin? What did the delegation from Europe want from Trump? Were they supplicants, or a show of force?
Maybe the important facts are elsewhere. Trump asserted that Zelenskyy had no cards to play. The biggest card to play in a long war of attrition is the capacity and will of a country's people to carry on the fight. Ukraine is a democracy, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected. But since the war started, elections have been suspended, so signals from the public are clogged and indirect. In the long run -- and this war has become a long one -- public opinion matters.
Ukrainians want the fighting to end. They want a negotiated settlement.
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| Gallup poll |
It doesn't mean the war will stop. Indeed, 70 percent of Ukrainians think it is unlikely.
Ukrainians have soured on the U.S. That support has steadily fallen over the course of the war. It tracks support for continuing the war itself.
Ukrainians are losing hope of being accepted into NATO. At the beginning of the war 64 percent of Ukrainians thought Ukraine would be part of NATO within a decade. Now it is only 32 percent.
Zelenskyy remains popular in Ukraine, more popular now than when he was elected. Support for him has largely resisted erosion of support for the war he leads.
There is no easy split-the-difference, war-ending settlement available. Russia wants to end Ukrainian sovereignty. Incorporating eastern Ukraine into Russia is a starting point, not an end-goal. Russia wants to claim (they say re-claim) Ukraine. Ukraine wants to preserve its borders and survive as a sovereign state outside of Russia, tilting its defense toward NATO and its economy toward the EU.
The polling suggests that time is not Ukraine's friend. When morale weakens, recruitment is harder and slower, soldiers are less effective, and dissent begins to rumble through a citizenry in subtle ways, then not so subtle. Voices call for peace.
Trump said Zelenskyy must sue for peace because he has weak cards to play. Zelenskyy appears resolute. His cards had included the support of his people for the war. That card may have been trumped by time, events, and the policy choices of the U.S. president. Trump wants to give Russia a win and to claim credit for bringing peace. He wants that Nobel peace prize.
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3 comments:
In the broader view of history it's going to be seen as a stain on the moral authority of The United States, and the unfortunate circumstance of this country being led by a Russian adjacent government at a time when its leadership was desperately needed.
I was raised to love my country, and I do, but at the moment I'm ashamed of it.
In order to broker a peace deal, Trump would need to have a clue about what’s actually going on. But unlike previous presidents, he doesn’t do intelligence briefings. That would require intelligence. Trump boasts that he goes by his gut, which is why his administration is so FUBAR. All he knows is that he likes Putin more than Zelensky because Putin is a better example of what Trump wishes he were.
I want a Peace Prize, too. There hasn't been a fight in my neighborhood in almost a year.
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