If you can't beat them, join them.

If Texas can do it, so can Oregon.

Let's see if Oregon's Republican Congressman, Cliff Bentz really thinks aggressive gerrymandering is good for America.

It would cost him his seat in Congress.

Republicans in Congress are following their leader. President Trump urged Texas to redistrict mid-cycle and not to bother with hypocrisy; just admit right out that redistricting is for the sole purpose of partisan gain. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is on board, and so is the GOP caucus. 

Oregon has six congressional districts. Five are represented by Democrats, one by a Republican. The Democratic-trifecta of governor, state senate, and state house of representatives oversaw creation of the current congressional map. It has a mild Democratic lean. They put the voters in the Democratic-leaning Portland metro area into four of the districts, giving them a small Democratic majority. Then they gave the rural, conservative, counties of Eastern Oregon their own rock-ribbed GOP U.S. Representative. The conservative counties of Eastern Oregon don't have enough votes to warrant a Representative of their own, so mapmakers tacked on a couple of southern counties jutting to the southwest, including my light pink one -- we voted for Obama in 2008 -- to get the population the district needed.

Here is a map, color-coded to show partisan lean.

Republicans complained that this map favored Democrats, and it does. But it has good-government fairness logic to it. The rural conservatives of Eastern Oregon, people who would leave Oregon and join Idaho if they could, have their district. Yes, it concentrates GOP voters -- a gerrymander tool -- but it gives them what they want.  And the rest of the state districts are drawn so they connect to the market center of the state in Portland. Three districts are genuinely competitive. A weak Democrat candidate and a good Republican candidate, or a strong Republican year, would result in Republicans getting elected in those districts. That is as it should be.

But Texas is playing hardball. Their goal isn't approximate- fairness in map-making; their goal is to maximize election of GOP Representatives. Get everything you can. Screw Democrats. I don't hear Cliff Bentz complaining.

Oregon has 991,000 registered Democrats and 731,000 registered Republicans -- a margin of 260,000 Democrats.  Divided among six congressional districts, that would mean a margin of about 43,000 per district. Here is what a new map -- a map inspired by Trump, Texas, and GOP hardball -- might look like:

Republicans wouldn't like it. Republican state legislators might do what Texas Democrats are doing, and leave the state to avoid a quorum. Trump and Fox News says that is outrageous and criminal. Would Trump and Fox complain if Oregon legislators did it, too?

Cliff Bentz would lose, perhaps badly, in a district shaped like this. He needs a 60-40 Republican margin that he has. He is on the Trump team. He cast his lot with the 2020 election deniers when he voted not to count the Pennsylvania vote for Joe Biden. Bentz voted for the Big Beautiful Bill that cuts the Medicaid that his own Eastern Oregon voters depend on. He was worried about a challenge from his right or someone who Trump endorsed over him, and made no effort to be moderate. He made his choice.

The new map has some logic and fairness. There is a coastal district which includes the travel corridor from the coast to Portland. There is an Interstate-5 corridor that connects my Medford home with Democratic Eugene, home of the University of Oregon. One Eastern Oregon district has a Columbia River and Snake River orientation that connects grain farmers with the Port of Portland and the voters of SE Portland. The other Eastern Oregon district, with big acreage and few people, gets combined with the state capital. Greater Portland's Democrats get divided among five districts, not four. There are fewer "wasted" Democratic votes, which is good for Democrats. It creates more swing districts which is good for democracy.  

None of the incumbent Representatives would welcome this mid-cycle change in maps. The Democrats would adjust. They are moderate enough to win GOP and non-affiliated votes, and are doing so now. The outlier is Bentz. He is stuck with his Trump-compliant record.  Let Trump come to Portland to campaign for him.

There are risks to Democrats to this approach, both political and philosophical. Incumbent Democrats would have less partisan advantage in a general election. And Democrats may not want to mirror Republican hardball tactics. I have heard objections. Democrats think they are "too good" to govern the way Republicans do.

I will explore this some more tomorrow.

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