The 2026 midterm elections will be a referendum on Trump.
Do Americans trust Trump, or do Americans think he needs to be reined in?
The chart below is from Bruce Mehlman's Age of Disruption, a substack newsletter. You can subscribe to his once-a-week Sunday post. It is free. https://brucemehlman.substack.com
The chart below is busy, but it makes sense if readers reflect on what they remember about "wave" elections and presidential approval. House seats won or lost measured against presidential approval:
Look at 2010 at the top. President Barack Obama (blue) had just squeaked through passage of the ACA. It was complicated, and the rollout was rocky. Democrats lost 60-plus House seats. The blue 1994 election was the public's reaction to the Hillary Clinton-led initiative on health care. Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon prior to the 1974 midterm election; it was a wave election for Democrats. Look at the lower right on the graph. George Bush was popular after the 9/11 attack. Republicans gained seats.
Bill Clinton was popular amid New Gingrich's attacks on him in 1998, also a year where the incumbent president gained seats. There is a warning in this one. If it were to appear that Democrats were the prime mover in politics -- the way that Gingrich's Republicans looked in 1998 -- then Democrats might not gain seats. But that won't happen; Trump insists on being Mr. Dominant in every arena of government. 
Trump likes the Rambo image. That is a fatal mistake in the midterms, and he is making it.
A president worries the public by moving boldly to address a problem. People see implementation problems. They decide the executive is handling things poorly. They vote to check him by removing his congressional enablers.
There is no way to unwind immigration in the U.S. without making people unhappy. There is no way to implement tariffs without creating bottlenecks and higher prices. People will lose their Medicaid. American voters want change, but they already are unhappy with the disruption that change brings.
I am optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2026.
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3 comments:
Republican congressman such as yours need to see that complete loyalty to Trump has electoral consequences for them. Until that occurs Trump will take more and more and democracy will be lost.
The Democrats will need to develop and unify around a message to win back the house in 2026. So far, this has not happened; what have they been able to speak with one voice about other than Jeffrey Epstein?
I personally am not seeking Democratic candidates that will out-Trump, Trump. I am seeking a Democrat who will articulate a compelling reason to vote for them and their vision for America. I want an effective leader, taking us in the direction they want to take us.
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