Joe Manchin is considering running for president.
"I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure, to mobilize that moderate, sensible, commonsense middle."
This is bad news for Democrats: Joe Manchin is a credible alternative on the ballot and would likely take votes from Joe Biden.
Worse news: He would head a "No Labels" Party, and "No Labels" is getting onto the ballot everywhere that matters.
Worse news yet: As U.S. Senator, Joe Manchin loved being the center of attention and the pivot point who tips the balance of power. Running for president would keep him in that role.
But there is good news for Democrats, if they can take an ambitious politician at his word. He said that Trump would "destroy democracy" if he served a second term. Manchin told NBC News:
I’m totally, absolutely scared to death that Donald Trump would become president again. I’ve never been a spoiler in my life of anything and I would never be a spoiler now.
Joe Manchin is an anomaly now, but conservative southern Democrats used to be commonplace. Senators Robert Byrd of West Virginia, Sam Ervin of North Carolina, and James Eastland of Mississippi won big margins with White working people. Historically they were openly racist; they defended Jim Crow. In recent decades open racism ended, evolving into opposing government giveaways to the wrong sorts of people. They positioned themselves as "taking on" Washington. Manchin is in that tradition. Watch this 30- second ad from 2018.
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Manchin voted to stop funding for Planned Parenthood but then supported it. He voted with Republicans to ban abortion, but only after 20 weeks. He calls himself "pro-life" but urged Trump not to appoint a Supreme Court justice who would overturn Roe v. Wade. Manchin defies litmus tests. He stayed a Democrat.
Manchin was a brake on Biden. Biden ran and won as a Democratic centrist, but his policies and staffing came out of Elizabeth Warren's office. Manchin pulled Biden back toward the middle on spending, on social welfare, on energy. Manchin stopped continuation of the child tax credit. He reduced the size of the Infrastructure Bill. He reduced the "Inflation Reduction Act" but did not kill it, even though it became primarily a greener-energy bill. He got a pipeline approved and protected coal. Those changes were the lubricant to make the gears of legislation turn. Democrats dislike bowing to the interests of rural, gun-loving, coal producing states, but they want working class, rural, gun-loving voters. They dislike Manchin but need him and he represents West Virginia.
There is reason for Democrats to praise Manchin. He forced Biden to govern like the person voters thought they were getting in 2020. Without the cuts Manchin demanded, deficits would have been higher and therefore inflation likely would have been worse. The Fed might have chosen to raise interest rates sooner, higher, and for longer, pushing the economy into recession instead of the apparent soft landing we are experiencing. Manchin supports Biden's judicial nominees. Manchin voted twice to convict Trump in impeachment trials.
Significant numbers of Democrats are Manchin-style Democrats. They are socially and fiscally conservative. They own guns. They like country music. They are openly patriotic. Many of them work outdoors and get dirty, wet, cold, and hot. People who do unpleasant hard work have heightened awareness of slackers and people who game the system. Manchin sounds good to those Americans.
The Biden coalition also includes people who are not strongly partisan, but they know one sure thing: They don't like Trump. Manchin appeals to them.
Net-net, if Manchin runs an active "No Labels" campaign, it hurts Biden and elects Trump. Manchin knows that. But Manchin would leave public office with a giant spotlight on himself, being Mr. Man-in-the-middle, the presumably good and reasonable man standing between two unpopular ones. Manchin knows that, too.
Will Manchin pick the lady or the tiger?
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7 comments:
It’s beyond belief that we need to worry about a “spoiler” subjecting us to another four years of Trump’s madness. Having already experienced four years of his contempt for democracy and the rule of law, if that many Americans yearn for more of it, perhaps we’re too stupid and/or crazy for a democratic republic.
Manchin is what Republicans used to be, believing in democracy, rule of law, cooperating with the opposition at times, maybe conservative but not an open racist, someone I could live with being president. Oh those were the days.
Will Manchin pick the lady or the tiger?
A choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? 😀
I really believe that Biden will step aside at some point. Maybe by March. If not, at the Convention in August. That leaves Manchin a real alternative. Polls will be published with Manchin vs the Golden One. If it looks good, he'll be the Democratic nominee. Simple as that. Whoever it takes to beat Assbreath is my man.
I'd welcome Manchin as a VP partner to whomever gets the D or R nomination for President.
Certainly a reasonable replacement for current VP Harris who hasn't really embraced her role as VP, nor demonstrated the ability to run the country.
It use to be an easy thing to do; work hand in hand with the President, be competent, and demonstrate the ability to take over after the President completes their 1 or 2 terms, or if health or something drastic shortens that term.
The hot button that does not get touched widely is just how unsuitable the current VP Harris would be as a candidate for 2024. She was selected as VP because of her sex and race; not her ability to do the job. In retrospect, too many realize this was a mistake.
Unfortunately, the dilemma of 2024 is our choices. A 3 way race will not produce the results people expect. It will be a 2-way race of never-Trump vs never-Biden, with the 3rd party candidates stealing votes from Biden and Trump.
What a mess!
Yes, a mess of such depth that not once in my 56 years of voting, did I imagine that we could be hovering so close to the dissolution of the Republic.
Manchin will never remotely pass muster on the Democratic Left, increasingly the party’s prime mover. Meanwhile, he knows he can no longer win in red, red West Virginia. At this point he’s a gadfly, or worse, a poison pill.
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