I think Nikki Haley would beat Joe Biden in the general election.
Don't worry too much, Democrats. She probably won't get a chance.
Haley is a strong political talent with a good story. If she were a Democrat, with typical Democratic policies, Democrats might find her an appealing representative of the next generation of leadership. Haley doesn't talk much about race. She talks about job growth and new businesses coming to South Carolina.
For now, most people are dismissing Haley. Pundits, along with GOP donors, officeholders, and activists, are cautious. It is dangerous to make an early commitment to a low-polling candidate. Her poll numbers underestimate her potential. DeSantis is stumbling. Trump might get indicted in Georgia, Florida, or in D.C. and a prosecutor may lay out evidence that might finally sink him. Her problem is that she isn't Trump and too many GOP voters still love Trump, the genuine article of Trump-ism. Her campaign needs Trump to disappear.
She has a powerful message, the "immigrant story." Americans like that story. It is the scrappy, rags-to-riches, nobody-to-powerful, work-ethic message of morning in America. Trump is talking about "carnage." Haley has a message of redemption. Haley's America is good at heart. Trump's message is that America is cruel and tribal, and that is the nature of the world, so live with it and win. The immigrant story embeds the idea that America is not racist and tribal, and the success of the messenger is the proof of it. She doesn't need to argue it. Her very biography tells that story. It worked for Obama.
The messenger is a big part of the message. Like Obama, she represents hope and change by her very presence. Her Town Hall stump speech is well practiced. I heard it twice, presented nearly word-for-word. She comes across as a strong defender of American interests, of traditional values, as a jobs-oriented can-do achiever. She says "God bless you" frequently.
Biden is who he is. He cannot look or sound like he represents the future. He suffers from a Catch-22. If he appears old and tired, people say it is the true and essential Biden. If he sounds peppy, pundits and opponents ascribe it to advisors propping him up. All candidates have elements of identity baked into their political persona, and his current age is Biden's identity. Haley's include that she is female, a person of color, and that she broke through those presumed barriers. She has made her identity a positive.
A general election head-to-head between Haley and Biden would simplify down to the future versus the past. Haley is stuck with some unpopular GOP positions, including on abortion and on the January 6 insurrection. She never mentioned either topic in either of her Town Halls. If she were to get the nomination she will try to come across as somehow moderate on those issues, and keep switching the discussion to jobs, job growth, and jobs yet again.
I will publish a 4-minute video of Haley's stump speech in an upcoming blog post.
10 comments:
As if being a woman of color weren’t enough strikes against her in the Republican Party, Nikki Haley has also promoted the COVID vaccines. In spite of having defended Trump, she may be the closest thing the GOP has to a rationale candidate. That doesn’t have any appeal to today’s Republicans.
I remember as long ago as 2011, Jon Huntsman was running in the Republican primary and made the comment: “I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.” That was pretty much the end of his campaign. Rational just doesn’t sell well among Republicans.
Kinda early for speculation, but the Republican party being what it is, I'd say more likely VP, if anything. She's shown herself to be completely Penceable. Sure, the ambition of being the first female President is alluring, but all things considered a pretty tall order. Remember Michelle Bachman? Right, no.
Guns, climate Change, abortion, wealth inequality, fascism, racism, homophobia and corruption are all issues that will be front and center in the General, none of which are winners for Republicans.
Final point; one of these candidates has to openly and fully take on Trump, the lies and crimes, head to head, which also means addressing the issues above, and so far none have shown the chutzpa to do so.
Because of that I'll disagree. Biden wins.
Although I have not observed her as you have, I don't agree.
I keep hearing that Millennials and Gen Z will be the largest voting block in 2024. Overall, they care about our environment, social justice, reproductive rights, including access to safe and legal abortion, and common sense gun control.
These voters are very wary of the party of hate, the NRA, anti-environmentalism and the war on our reproductive rights.
Nikki Haley says that people have underestimated her all her life.
Who doesn't? It's a good way to lower the bar so if you fail, like she will, no one notices.
I guess it will be fair to insult her the way Kamala Harris has been insulted.
The GOPee has problems with women and minorities in power. Haley will sink.
Haley won't be the GOP nominee, since she has a minuscule following.
BTW....Shemia Fagan (who was bribed by pot dealers) just RESIGNED.
I liked Huntsman, but as I recall, he folded his Campaign about three days after making those statements, which is what happens to R's who don't follow the Party Line very closely, indeed.
Re: Bachmann v. Haley
Nimrata is not batshit crazy. Despite that, her name and background will keep her away from the Podium to accept any kind of nomination.
I'm greatly disappointed Ms. Fagan, whom I voted for. I wasn't aware that this State, was so miserly that it only can find itself capable of paying one of the top 3 Officials in our State Government $77,000 a year, for a position imho, nearly as important as the Governor.
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