Social Security is popular. Medicare is popular. Medicaid expansion to the working poor is popular. The prescription drug benefit is popular. Keeping the government open is popular.
There is more.
A higher minimum wage is popular.
Access to abortions is popular.
Access to contraception is popular.
The right to same-sex marriage is popular.
The right to inter-racial marriage is popular.
America's assistance to Ukraine is popular, at least for now.
The $1,400 COVID stimulus checks were popular.
Extending unemployment benefits during the COVID shutdown was popular.
Spending money to improve the infrastructure is popular.
Expanding domestic manufacture of computer chips is popular.
Fixing the Electoral Count Act is popular.
Meanwhile, Trump is personally unpopular. Election denial is unpopular. The January 6 riot is unpopular. The GOP is divided. Trump singled out the most powerful Republican officeholder in the country, Mitch McConnell, and called him an obedient husband to a Chinese communist. Trump tweeted that RINOs are "working so hard to DESTROY our once great country."
So why aren't Democrats mopping the floor with Republicans in the 2020 and 2022 elections?
COVID. No good deed goes unpunished. Protecting seniors and other vulnerable people may well have had the wisest and most compassionate COVID policy possible, but this is a democracy. Americans quickly tired of the inconvenience of masks, school shutdowns, vaccination requirements. By the fall of 2021 a great many Americans were ready to return to "normal" even if it meant that old, sick, overweight people died in higher numbers. People who wanted vaccinations could get them. Public health became self-protection in the minds of many. Democrats were conscientious about public health longer than the American public wanted.
Inflation. Inflation is worldwide, but popular actions to reduce COVID economic misery gave people money--creating demand--while the shutdowns reduced productivity--reducing supply. The result was inflation. Another popular good deed gets punished.
Trans. Democrats are trying to figure out how to deal with trans, non-binary, intersex people. Democratic go-to strategy is compassion and inclusion of marginalized people. Democrats criticize and shame open racism, sexism, and anti-Semitism as wrong-headed and prejudiced, and they bring that strategy to gender. This is pushing Americans into new mental territory: Gender as a social construct as well as a biological fact. Cultural conservatives resist it, and so, too, do some gay and lesbian people and people of color. Trans-acceptance muddles Democratic ideology and constituencies. The result is that Republicans, who would lose votes if they talked about cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid wisely talk instead about pronouns and the strange thought of trans athlete swimmers and men in women's bathrooms. No attempt at compassion goes unpunished, either.
Southern border. This is a failure of mixed emotions and values. Families have mixed immigration status. Deportations divide families. It is cruel. Yet illegal is illegal and Democrats want to talk about the rule of law. People have lived here for decades, have served in the U.S. military, and yet they are at risk of deportation. Democrats are conflicted. There is no national consensus on what to do and no Democrat, including Biden and Vice President Harris, has stepped up with a plan and message to build that consensus.
Biden. And then there is the Biden himself. A majority of voters in 2020 wanted someone other than Trump, and Biden was the available choice. Biden has many strengths, but he lacks the ability to make an articulate persuasive case on the state of the union, including the issues of COVID, inflation, sexual politics, and immigration. Yesterday's blog post showing Ukraine president Zelenskyy speaking to his nation demonstrated the power of communication to shape opinion and events. Biden's opponents can articulate their message of Democratic treason, a botched Afghanistan pullout, COVID tyranny, microchips in vaccine, Fauci as Satan, a fraudulent 2020 election, Hunter Biden, runaway inflation, and woke gender oddities infiltrating schools. Trump and his allies make their case. President Biden cannot make an equally impactful case. Democrats have one case made well, that Trump is obviously dangerous and unfit for office, and Trump makes that case against himself.
Biden in office blocks another Democrat from stepping up. Possibly there is a Democratic Zelenskyy in the wings. We won't know until Biden says he won't run for re-election.
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5 comments:
I must admit my certainty that Biden will step down is shaken, but it could be a matter of timing; not yet. There is something to be said here about risk. Biden is a known quantity, but vulnerable due to his age. Democrats lost the House and '24 is going to be close for the Senate making it imperative that Democrats keep the Presidency.
The logical successor is the VP, but she has not been given the support as yet needed to be named the frontrunner. Again, maybe just timing. One thing I'm certain of is that there is much discussion behind closed doors.
An interesting question is that a Trump indictment will suck up a lot of GOP oxygen; will they defend him?
Compassion for who??? Where is the compassion for women and girls who need female-only private spaces? Patriarchy rules the planet and now some very confused dudes want to invade our rest rooms, dressing rooms, locker rooms, homeless and domestic abuse shelters, etc. Also female-only competitions. It is more male entitlement and domination and, as usual, females are told--by some--to be quiet and allow it.
Male trans rights over female rights? Just Say Absolutely Not
Btw, "assigned at birth," "pregnant people" (instead of pregnant females) and "nursing parents" (instead of nursing mothers) are fake news. Don't drink the purple beverage in the little cups.
One of Peter’s best-ever analyses.
I would only add that if Biden steps out of the running, boosting Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee will be catastrophic. She is no more capable of projecting a coherent and appealing message than is Biden.
The only strong message I have ever seen Harris project was her unconscionable racial sandbagging of Biden during the primaries, the “That little girl was me” moment. Channeling a race-baiting charlatan like Al Sharpton is not a practical path to the American presidency.
But it is likely to be difficult for the Democratic Party to step past “a woman of color.“ They may end up hoist on the petard of their own identity politics if they choose Harris and commit to going from bad to diverse.
One of the Republican headlines that Peter forgot to mention is Hunter Biden’s legendary laptop. Something we can look forward to with Republicans taking over the House is finally finding out what Trump’s Chumps loaded onto it while it was in their custody. Hopefully it will be at least as titillating as the infamous ‘pee pee tape,’ because they’ll undoubtedly try to make a Jan. 6 type of production out of it.
Competent and charismatic leaders are rare. Even rarer in a democratic form of government is a leader genuinely in touch with the people and the body politic. In the age of mass media and instant analysis slights, blunders and gaffs are often fatal to the overall success. But let's face it, Biden cut his teeth as a legislator and negotiator, all good skills that can be turn against you as a creature of the political swamp.
New Deal and progressive Democrats have delivered for the country, reaching down to help and benefit the needs of all of us. That said, you can not rest on your accomplishments in the next election cycle. This Congress passed some amazing (about time) legislation. Like the ACA (Obama Care) it will take some time for the effect to be seen and appreciated by the voters. One skill that Biden possess is the ability to work successfully with divided government and radical factions on both sides.
My feeling is that the next two years will be a two-pronged focus by Biden. Patch up and nourish the basic elements of our republic, and maintain and strengthen our international standing. In closing my comment, I have observed difficulty leaning on past accomplishments while the needs of our citizens keep changing. You're confronted with the attitude of "What have you done for me... lately?" Furthermore, if Biden declares we won't run for President again, he is immediately a lame duck president with little real power over either party, effectively finished.
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