If Democrat Tina Kotek loses, here is why:
Democrats dropped the ball on keeping Portland a gracious, livable city.
There is a three-person race for governor. Republican Christine Drazan. Non-Affiliated Betsy Johnson. Democrat Tina Kotek. Recent polls show Johnson stuck at under 20%, and Drazen slightly ahead. Johnson is probably taking more Democratic votes than Republican ones. Johnson is pro-choice and she agrees that Biden won the election.
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| Oregonian: Drazan, Johnson, Kotek |
But Betsy Johnson isn't the main reason Kotek may well lose. She isn't the spoiler as much as she is the symptom of voter frustration with the status quo. The Republican brand problem in Oregon is that in this uncompromising RINO-hunting Trump era, Republicans look better suited for Idaho or Alabama than they do Oregon.
But Democrats screwed up, too. Their political error showed up in the summer and fall of 2020. George Floyd's slow death solidified an idea that ruminates in progressive circles, that White Americans are deeply, fundamentally racist. It is a simple reductionist theory that anti-Black prejudice shapes American history and always has. Therefore, good Americans should be anti-racist. White Americans were urged to "do the work" to admit their privilege. George Floyd was confirmation that there is indeed something rotten in America.
Portland citizens joined demonstrations showing support for Black lives mattering. Those could have been useful civic engagement. But mixed into those demonstrations were young nihilistic vandals, hooligans, and looters. The whole society is corrupt! Burn it all down! This message has a home on both the populist right and populist left. Trump, Fox, Q-Anon, and the Proud Boys all say a version of that message. The anarchist left says that corporations, landlords, the military-industrial complex, and "the establishment" are crushing America. Anarchist vandals infiltrated the George Floyd protests. They threw rocks, broke windows, set fires at businesses and public buildings night after night for months. The violence left a mess of closed businesses alongside encampments of unhoused people on the sidewalks and doorways of Portland.
Democratic leaders in Oregon and Portland lost control of the police and the justice system. Democratic leaders seemed unable to distinguish between orderly protesters and the "burn it down" vandals. The police were passive-aggressive and refused to arrest troublemakers. Let's see how people like having no police. The District Attorney won't prosecute people, so why bother arresting them? The idea of American racial guilt muddled the response of Democratic leaders. Maybe vandalism and arson are equivalent to refusing to sit at the back of the bus.
The public lost patience with the people in charge, Democrats. Tina Kotek was a legislative leader, not a police commissioner, but she is a prominent Democrat from Portland. She gets the political blame.
Kotek may win in what has become a two-person race. Democrats usually carry Portland with huge margins. Drazan carries the scent of Trump's populist autocracy. He won't shut up, he voices the Republican message, and Republicans dare not condemn him. Kotek's ads say a vote for Drazan is a vote for the extreme MAGA Trump platform. It may work.
But if Kotek loses, it will be because she is wrapped up in the public mind with Democrats letting vandals roam free. Portland isn't the graceful, livable city it once was. Kotek won't get the margins out of Portland that previous Democratic candidates enjoyed. If she loses, that is why.
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6 comments:
I wondered if Johnson would take votes from Drazan or from Kotex, and it seems we have an answer. I also read that Phil Knight recently sent a fat check to Drazan, in addition to his support heretofore for Johnson.
What I haven’t read yet—Mr. Sage or anyone else please inform as needed—is Drazan herself having to fish or cut bait on the subject of the 2020 election as well as her position on Trump for President going forward.
Agreed Portland is an albatross around the neck of any statewide Democratic candidate. Seattle is squalling about 50 or so murders this year so far—Portland at 80 or so is on track to smash last year’s all-time record.
I don't get to spend as much time in Portland as I would like, so cannot speak to how it is on the downtown streets today, but my friends who live in Portland area don't seem nearly upset as the Right Wingers who don't live there do.
W hen the 3 Candidates for Governor held their "debate" in Medford, I was left with the distinct impression that Drazan, and Johnson were running against Kate Brown, not Tina Kotek. I must agree with your contention that the seemingly feckless reactions, or more accurately lack of action by both Gov. Brown and the Mayor and DA of Portland to the events of 2020 left a really rancid taste in the mouths of many Oregonians, not just the Republican or Independent ones. I do think Kotek is the right choice for our Purple State, but if she wants to win, she had best stake out some forceful positions around Law and Order, and do it soon, or Drazan will be in the Governors seat in Salem. Testing the political winds interminably as, imho, Gov. Brown seemed to do on every big issue, like Jordan Cove, is not going to win her many votes.
It’s obvious that racism remains a problem in this country or we wouldn’t be talking about it. Those who value our nation’s founding principles have been pursuing social justice from the beginning, but glaring discrepancies remain between Blacks and Whites in income, healthcare, incarceration rates, etc. and the struggle goes on.
So yes, good Americans should be anti-racist, but good Americans should also be helping others, not harming them.
I have a friend who lives in the Irvington neighborhood of Portland. He knows many people around that area who are just appalled at the way the quality of life has deteriorated in that city.
They tell him homelessness is out of control. Crime is out of control. You can’t even leave a hose or a pair of gardening gloves outside, because they will get stolen. Catalytic converters are being stolen out from under their cars every night. Dangerous street racing events are common.
When my wife and I were looking for a house to buy in 1988 (when Portland was a wonderful city), we were looking in Portland. We just happened to find a house we liked two blocks past the city line in a neighboring suburb. Looking back, this was an amazing stroke of luck. We are not paying outrageous Portland taxes for no police, no 911 response, and woke crackpots like Joann Hardesty and spineless jellyfish like Mayor Ted Wheeler running our city government.
Speaking as a Portlander most of my adult life I can say that Ted Wheeler isn't the worst mayor we've ever had but he is the worst police commissioner in my memory. Going into the pandemic, Portland had inertia and focus on developing a vibrant urban cultural and thriving city. It's difficult to point to one main thing that caused a fracture in that dream, but fractured it is. Translating a fractured Portland into a voter preference is difficult to predict as factors weighing on the voter are many, skyrocketing housing costs, lack of employers reopening downtown offices, plummeting commercial property values/rentals, increasing costs for city services and inflation. A few of the factors to consider are: public safety, pocketbook issues, progressive values, national political winds, are just a few.
Regarding Phil Knight's support of Johnson and Drazan, they are two candidates he believes will enact policies he advocates. No surprise there, but it does show he is using money as speech to get his point across.
One driver in Portland is the new city charter proposal, which I feel will drive a large voter turnout within Portland. Whether the surrounding urban areas turnout or are turned-off (no shows) will tip the weight of the vote blue or red.
Posted for Lyn Hennion:
No, Peter, it’s NOT a 2-person race. Betsy Johnson doesn’t poll well because the pollsters call “probable voters,” those who belong to parties and, in Oregon, the latest poll surveyed just 600 voters for the whole STATE! Non-MAGA republicans are enthusiastic supporters of Betsy. Consider the leaders of Betsy's Jackson County Campaign Committee: John Snider, John Watt, Gene Abell, Jim Wright, Alan DeBoer, Sue Kupillas, Jim Maddux, Buzz Thielemann, and me. Not too many democrats in that list!
I sent a letter to the MT editor last week, but I have little hope it being published, as they print so few.
Lyn Hennion
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