It's the inflation, stupid

"Inflation is a priority that government and central banks are expected to tackle."   

Summary of 11-country poll by Global Progress/YouGov

The ground is shifting politically. It is bad for Democrats. 

The election may be a referendum on inflation. Not Trump. Not abortion. Not overthrowing elections. Americans know that our democracy is at risk, but they just don't care all that much. It isn't a priority. Nor is abortion. 

New York Times

That was the conclusion of the New York Times/Siena College poll released this week. It dovetailed with the results of the international poll released in September. Many candidates who adopted full-on election denial positions to win their GOP primaries are still strong candidates in the general election. 

Inflation hurts incumbents in all the Western democracies. It isn't special to Biden or to U.S. Democrats. The graph below is for 11 different democracies. The blue area, averaging about 10%, are people who think that inflation is bad, but there isn't much governments can do about it. The red area, about 60%, are people who think a competent government could solve it, but people have little confidence in their government. The yellow area, about 20%, are people who do have confidence their government can solve it. The green, about 10%, are people who say they don't know. Red dominates.

Here is the U.S. band, shown on its own: 59% lack confidence that our government can do what it should be able to do.

Briefly, abortion looked like a silver bullet for Democrats. That may be a misfire. The Dobbs decision and Republican legislatures implementing total bans on abortion were presumed to energize young voters. The ballot issue in Kansas sent a misleading signal. It was a single up-or-down vote on the topic, not a vote on the salience of abortion as an issue.

Polling and on-the-ground behavior in Texas send up a warning to Democrats.

Texas Tribune

The left-leaning Texas Tribune quotes a participant in a poorly attended pro-choice rally in Fort Worth, Texas:

 I just don’t think people understand that women are going to die. I don’t think people understand the urgency of the issue.

Abortion bans are law in Texas. The article cites polls that show that 80% of Texas voters think the Texas law goes too far. The Texas Tribune reports it is the ninth most important issue to Texas voters. Election denial isn't a deal-killer either. Abbott refused to acknowledge Biden's 2020 victory after the election. This year he has been campaigned with Trump in Texas and joined Trump in saying fraud took place. A Democratic candidate for governor, Beto O'Rourke gives Texas voters a clear choice on abortion and election denial. He currently lags Abbott by five to 11 points.

I may be wrong and out of touch. I thought that overthrowing elections and total abortion bans would be over-riding issues in the general election. Surely Americans who stand for the Star Spangled Banner won't support candidates who tolerate overthrowing a presidential election. Surely a total abortion ban goes too far. Most people agree with me on those issues. My error is thinking that those issues are the important ones.

Incumbent governments in Western democracies are being replaced. We are in an era of political turmoil, most vividly in the U.K. Democracy and abortion are abstractions. The price of food and gasoline are practical realities.

Republicans in America have no different or better solution to inflation than do Democrats. Cut military spending? Cut Social Security and Medicare? Let in more immigrants so they can bring down the cost of agricultural labor?  Raise taxes to reduce net demand? Fat chance. But that is no matter. If voters think the current government is incompetent to deal with inflation, they will change leadership.

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