Democrats are poised to lose the White House in 2024.
Unless Trump.
"Too many Republicans embrace Donald Trump’s narcissistic fantasy of a stolen election. . .. To appreciate how self-defeating this is, consider that Trump’s best shot at winning in 2024 would be to drop his focus on 2020 and continuously assail President Biden’s underwhelming performance in the White House and the overreach of congressional Democrats. Trump has a strong record to run on, and Biden is proving an easy act to follow. The fact that not just he but millions of his supporters are incapable of recognizing this obvious truth shows how polluted our politics have become by the pathologies of victimhood, grievance and division."
CLICK: J. Peder Zane, Real Clear Politics
President Joe Biden cannot corral Democrats into a governing coalition. He never had the skillset for the job, even when he was younger, and certainly not now. He cannot articulate a national purpose or policy agenda for Americans, or even for Democrats. We knew his limitations. Some people probably were comforted by seeing them. He was harmless.
Biden did not create a movement. Trump did. MAGA die-hards, including Trump himself, who say that there is no possible way that 83 million people wanted this feeble stuttering guy who broadcast from a Delaware basement. They are partly right. The 83 million votes wanted Trump out.
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| Hulk Hogan: "Heel." |
Democrats need to acknowledge the reality that Donald Trump is a star who can persuade. A lot of people like what he says and they even like the pugnacious way he says it. He is fearless. The world is changing toward something more cosmopolitan, diverse,and post-industrial. Or post-post-industrial, a world of Artificial Intelligence. Trump created a political MAGA world of resistance to all that. He is its leader. There is no opposite and equivalent political world for Democrats.
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| From Trump's website |
Democrats painted themselves into a political corner. Kamala Harris is badly positioned. Even if Biden leaves office early she would be tainted. She would be an inheritor, not a founder. In 2024 Democrats will be led by Biden, by Harris, or by some newcomer whose elevation would come at the expense of a Black woman-in-waiting Vice President. It is a weak hand.
It can only beat a weaker one. Trump needs to be the issue, and fortunately for Democrats, he is stepping up. It was very Trump-like to claim to be cheated and to lay a foundation of doubt and conspiracy. It worked with birtherism. Voters enjoy thinking ill of politicians they disagree with. Trump is a master at turning disagreement into detest.
Trump's error is that he cannot let go of the Big Lie. We like "good guy" rogues who take on illegitimate authority, but not crazy ones. Trump's monomania is the GOP's giant vulnerability. He enforces message discipline among Republicans. You are with him or a RINO enemy he will squash. In 2022 Republican candidates in swing states and districts will hedge and muddle. We saw it in Virginia. It works politically. However, if Trump is the 2024 nominee, he is stuck being the human he is, and so is the GOP. He doubled down on his character and his grievance. He really thinks he won. He isn't shutting up. He looks crazy. Democrats should rejoice.
A crazy Trump is the one person Democrats can beat in 2024.
14 comments:
I find it sad that we are a society that must have star power to be effectively governed. Some see no value in decency or competence. Joe Biden didn’t run to be a transformational President. He ran to get Trump out of a position to inflict more harm.
Maybe we should spend less time looking for the next star and more time reforming a political system that seems designed not to deliver reasonable service and equal justice for all. Getting money out of politics would be a great start.
In 2016 we had to choose between Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. In 2020 it was between Joe Biden or Donald Trump. What this demonstrates is how desperately we need a better way to pick better candidates. Our current system sucks. Maybe we should start with a mandatory retirement age for politicians and judges. Also, open primaries might help. I think we did better back in the days of the proverbial smoke-filled rooms.
"There is no opposite and equivalent political world."
Nah.
There is actual reality, where most people live. It will prevail.
It's quite astounding actually, to consider that after two World Wars, massive technological and social change, including trips to the moon and this very blog,
that Republicans have desiccated into a horse and buggy vision of America that was abandoned in around the invention of the light bulb.
It's like Republicans live in a "Bates Motel" reality with Mom in the attic.
It won't fly, but it certainly shows the persistence of Regressive values, and the equally astounding power of mass delusion.
This is not to say that the political system will suffer more upheaval. The Devil is in the details, not the least of which are a Democratic party in need of a strategy.
It's not so much about Trump, as it is about Biden. I don't see him running for reelection, and what that means is that to win, and insure another eight years of Democratic control, the Party needs to unify behind VP Harris. I don't think there's going to be a breakout candidate, (Mayyybe Sen. Warren) and the Party needs to avoid what would certainly be disastrous infighting. And make no mistake, Congress is a sideshow, the Presidency is the Big Top.
I completely disagree that Trump is the only one Democrats can beat, they all are pretty repugnant.
So true about the sad "star power" construct, the optics-first auspices for national office. Democrats are hamstrung as well because Kamala Harris too exemplifies that shallow scoop, having been selected per Biden's express claim because she is a black woman, and she is celebrated--to date, anyway--for that reason and that reason alone.
The SCOTUS saw to it that money is speech for election purposes. What Congress could do to constrain that influence, if they wished it, is to constrain the political season itself, as they do in the U.K. and elsewhere. No formal candidacies and most importantly no election advertising outside say 90-120 days before every national election.
In the quote from RealClearPolitics, J. Peder Zane says, “Trump has a strong record to run on…” Yes, a strong record of denying climate change, minimizing the pandemic, pandering to white supremacists, etc.
During his MLK, Jr. Day weekend rally, the undisputed leader of the GOP lied about white people being discriminated against and being sent to the “back of the line” when it comes to receiving COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. His cult followers cheered. That pretty much sums up today’s Republican Party.
K.Harris is hopeless as a presidential candidate. Under stress she giggles. Very weak. The D’s need to come up with someone else.
I keep hoping that something in the next few years will disqualify Trump from running.
Look at Harris's no holds barred performance during the Kavanaugh fiasco. No mercy for that crooked little crybaby, nor for anyone testifying that dared lie in answer to her questions. She had his backers all trembling in fear for exposure as lying politicians, covering up for the creepy guy.
Once removed from vp second positions limitations, I fully expect she will come out with a full court press, even defeating Fat boy Trump in every debate. Not only does she have the force, the power, and the aggressiveness to defeat trump, her IQ is at almost double that of our former Thug in Chief.
I have a lot of respect for Senator Warren, but in a f8ght against Trump, she-like Biden-is simply too polite, too passive to give me much confidence.
In New York, for instance, being black is a plus-factor for getting lifesaving Covid treatment. If blacks get moved to the front of the line, guess who gets moved to the back.
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If this were a betting venue, I’d be happy to put down some $ against Harris. Whatever she may have done as a senator, her performance in the 2020 presidential primaries wasn’t even mediocre.
Softball NBC TV interviewer Craig Melvin to Kamala Harris last week, on whether it may be time to change various apparently ineffectual Biden administration COVID-19 strategies: "Is it time?"
Harris: "It is time to do what we have been doing and that time is every day. Every day it is time for us to agree that there are things and tools that are available to us to slow this thing down".
To borrow from "Blazing Saddles", Harris deserves praise for that authentic frontier gibberish. Extemporaneous speech is a far cry from argumentative harangues written by others for a partisan show trial.
I do like Malcolm’s scenario and hope that it comes to pass, but Stacey Abrams might be even better than Harris. If we elected a woman of color, Trump’s base would go berserk. They’d deny that it could have happened because they say so. Red states would demand to secede. This time, we should let them.
M. Trigoboff, could it be that you’re pulling the Old “Brer Rabbit vs Brer Fox maneuver? “You can skin me, shoot me, stab me, etc, but PLEASE don't throw me in the briar patch? Maybe you’re afraid, not of the brier patch, but of missus Harris?
What would be the basis of your bet; what Harris could do against a house and senate stacked with trump flunkies?
Malcolm,
The basis of my beth, like I said, was KH’s poor performance in the 2020 primary.
The problem is that Americans pay attention to celebrities. It's easy.
And lazy journalists pander to that.
Hence, we get stupid voters who elect people like Trump.
Harris will use Trump as a mop.
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