Oregon Congressional Districts: Republicans took the deal

Republicans had something to lose.

Better to settle for what the bipartisan legislature came up with than what the Democratic Secretary of State might do.

The reality is that states that have the power to gerrymander Congressional Districts will likely do so. This especially advantages Republicans this year. Texas gained two Congressional Districts. Florida gained one. Both have Republicans in control of redistricting. It is a given that they are going to "crack and pack" which is the slang term for drawing CD lines in such a way that concentrations of opposition party votes get divided among larger areas with one's own party's voters in the majority. The other device is to "pack" the opposition into as few CDs as possible where they will win with huge majorities, thus wasting votes. 

Democrats do it, too, but have fewer opportunities. Maryland is a good example of a Democratic gerrymander. Oregon Democrats heard loud and clear from the national party that they had a national responsibility to Democrats to lend their weight to countering what Texas and Florida have done and will proudly do again. 

Oregon Republican legislators got what they thought was a good and fair map for state house and senate districts. This is no surprise; they shared in creating it. Republicans had something to lose if they blew up the overall redistricting plan because the federal side of it created a five-to-one Democratic congressional advantage. Democrats planned to pack Republicans into an eastern and southern Oregon district. Then their plan carefully allocated metropolitan Portland's Democratic voters among four congressional districts tilting them all slightly blue. Liberal Eugene's district, represented by Peter DeFazio, was to lose some Trump-oriented timber counties. 

Here is the proposed Democratic map:

Wasn't this unfair? Didn't Democrats feel guilty? Maybe a little. But they didn't want to feel like saps, either. 

Republicans take a narrow GOP advantage in Texas and divide its 36 districts by 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Florida takes its small advantage and divides its 27 seats by 16 Republicans to 11 Democrats. The message nationally was clear: Oregon, don't be fair with your extra seat. Be smart. This isn't civics class, this is real life. Play the game the way Texas plays the game. But in Oregon's tradition of politics, partisan power is denied, not celebrated, so the Democratic plan was arguably very reasonable and fair. It just happened to work out to create a likely 5-1 delegation.

Republicans had the power to stop the Democratic plan for Congressional Districts by denying a quorum, and they did so. Democrats adjusted the lines a little. Now the district boundaries create a tossup district, one that includes the area east of the Willamette River and the city of Bend. Bend is urbanized, prosperous, and it attracts well-educated people, making it Democratic. It is a competitive district, with a future likely to be growing more blue. Both sides can think they won; neither side need be embarrassed.

Here is the new map, just agreed to and signed into law:

Republicans took the deal, even though it might well be a 5-1 delegation. They sacrificed a potentially better deal on the congressional districts--one created by a panel of judges--to lock in the state boundaries as drawn with their help. They protected themselves against a a known threat. Had they not taken the deal a Democratic Secretary of State takes over redistricting of state legislative districts and could pack and crack herself. She could draw lines so that Republicans were put into the same district and forced to run against each other. 

In the end, it was hardball, threats, and hostage-taking. Democrats had the blunt instrument of a CD map that gave a 5-1 delegation, a strong opening bid. Republicans had the blunt instrument of denying a quorum which would blow everything up. Democrats gave Republicans power to share in making state district lines, which created a "hostage," a state legislative map Republican liked. Democrats had the blunt instrument of a Democratic Secretary of State. Republican state legislators chose their own electoral interests over pressure from the national GOP.

None of this is pretty, but in the end politics in a democracy worked. People acted on their own interests, compromised, were selfish and hypocritical, and they came up with something that a majority of people can live with.