The anti-abortion dog chased the bus and finally caught it in Texas.
Good news for Democrats.
The Fox News people know the Texas abortion ban is a disaster for Republicans. Their website this morning tells the story by what it avoids. I counted fifty news stories, but not a single one on the tremendous victory, at long last an abortion ban the Supreme Court didn't immediately swat down. The GOP's goal was reached, a ban on abortions at the time of a fetal heartbeat, i.e. any time after a woman is two weeks "late," and likely before she thinks she is pregnant. "This bill ensures the life of every unborn child with a heartbeat will be saved from the ravages of abortion," Governor Abbott tweeted.
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| Governor Abbott tweet |
Only Tucker Carlson did not get the memo. He charges ahead saying the legislature is representing the people of Texas by outlawing abortion, hurrah and high time, abortions are murder.
The Texas abortion ban is a huge win for Democrats. Americans have generally figured out that they want abortion as a safety net for women, as long as the abortion is done pretty early. Voter sensibilities vary, depending on how early the pregnancy is terminated. Some oppose it at the moment of fertilization but most don't consider a tiny speck of tissue anyone's business but the woman's. Democrats step out of the zone of popular consensus when they insist on abortions late in pregnancy, and that creates a rallying cry that moves the needle of public opinion against them. What Texas has just done is the opposite. They took an extreme position--the most extreme--and got it to stick for now.
We have had fifty years of abortion rights. Women under age 70 have lived in an era where they had easy access to reliable birth control, and then they had an emergency backup safety net in case of an "accident." Every sexually active person knows accidents happen, rarely maybe, but they could . The safety net allowed a positive disconnect between sex and childbearing. Biology did not control. The woman did.
That notion became integrated into American culture and mores. Young couples commonly have premarital sex, and indeed that very term--premarital--is weirdly old fashioned and misplaced. The reality is that people have sex with people they are not expecting to marry or have children with, at least not at the moment. The safety net makes possible a whole suite of behaviors. American women no longer routinely get married at age 18, as they did sixty years ago, led by custom and impatience to legitimize sex. Now they wait, they finish college, they get a career started, they look around. They marry, if at all, in their late 20s or later. People have sex together because they want it. People move in together because they are "partnered." They marry because they want to start a family.
No doubt there are many young women who save their virginity until marriage and no doubt some young couples hide their behavior to shelter the sensibilities of parents or grandparents, but for better or worse, the mainstream culture has changed. Texas' law does more than ban abortion. It reconnects sex with the chance of an unplanned pregnancy. One could be stuck. They make the consequences hard, and a legal event, not just a medical one. One would need to fly out of state, plus sneak to avoid getting sued and paying $10,000 and attorney fees for the other guy. Yikes!
A poll of 1,804 working-age adults with college degrees found 79% do not want Roe v. Wade overturned and 80% say abortion access is an important element of women's rights and gender equality. Click The poll creators conclude:
Large majorities of top talent support abortion access and consider the issue part of gender equity in the workplace;
Two-thirds say the Texas ban would discourage them from working in the state;
64% say they would not apply for a job in a state that passed a ban like Texas';
About half says they would consider moving out-of-state if their lawmakers passed a similar ban.
A total ban on abortion will play the same role that Trump played in the 2020 election. Boogie man. Crazy man. It is the big flashing yellow warning light. It is like re-criminalizing alcohol by bringing back Prohibition. Some people will love it; most will not.
This blog has observed that Biden did not win in 2020. Biden lost, but Trump lost bigger. The Texas GOP came through for Democrats.
6 comments:
Let’s hope the Texas republicans now pass the dress code for women that the governor of Texas wants to pass. I would like to see a women get arrested for wearing jeans. That will play well for Fox News to air. Let’s keep women under control.
Maybe we are reaching the tipping point where a Democrat landslide can be reached as a result of Republican overreacting.
Abortion issue aside, I think this is an utterly cynical move by Texas Republicans to "own the libs". They very likely don't care whether the ban is upheld or not in the future, but are reveling in the controversy and the short term gains in the next election. It was a necessary move to energize the base.
This plus voter suppression, and whatever else they can think up.
The law passed by Texas Republicans couldn't really have happened. Everybody knows Republicans oppose government interference with patient-physician decision making. They said so themselves.
I think it remains to be seen whether this is a real gain for democrats.
People have short memories and don't connect the dots very well.
As disingenuous and ignoble as this new Citizen Report law is, it’s already had its desired effect. It has survived thus far because it is not a direct assault on Roe v. Wade, but instead on the “undue burden” standard from Planned Parenthood v. Casey. That cagy Jesuit Chief Justice Roberts may well deflect the elective abortion question from justiciable morality on a national scale into transactional medical health policy, traditionally the purview of the individual states and their various idiosyncratic moralities. Unfortunately, this would fall hardest on poorer women unable to afford that sort of tourism.
These are not laws about protecting a fetus.
These laws are about men controlling women's bodies.
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