America is not divided by states and not even by county.
It is divided by precinct.
The marriage of the fifty states just isn't working out. I hear casual talk of political divorce.
People on the left say Texas and Alabama and Wyoming and the Dakotas should do their own thing. They are standing in the way of what Blue-America wants and the planet needs. Go do your own country, where abortion is banned, where the minimum wage is $7.50, and where you can spread COVID to each other. Good riddance. Meanwhile people in "Heartland America" scoff at high-tax California and its West Coast ilk, with its expensive housing, the fussing over pronouns, and where people there illegally find sanctuary. There are red states and blue states and we don't even like each other anymore.
The problem isn't at the state level.
The New York Times publishes an "Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election. Here is the link to it: Click: Extremely detailed
There is an urban consciousness that votes Democratic and a rural one that votes Republican. Since there are urban counties, suburban counties, and rural counties, details at the county level reveal significant differences. But he real difference takes place at the precinct level. County numbers obscure the reality by aggregating diverse precincts. I looked closely at Jackson County, Oregon, my home. A large precinct in college town Ashland had 5,995 votes for Biden and 927 for Trump, an 84%-13% margin for Biden. Moving the curser two precincts away into a rural area showed a geographically large very rural precinct with a vote of 859 for Trump and 274 for Biden, a 74%-24% margin for Trump. Same county.
It is a mistake for Democrats to dismiss the Texas of Governor Abbott as foreign territory. After all, there is Austin, home of the University of Texas and a growing technology center. It is part of Blue-America, educated and diverse. It shows up as a big splotch of blue precincts with a 80%-20% Biden margin. But it isn't just Austin. All the big Texas cities are bright blue. A Dallas precinct shows a vote of 782 for Biden and 25 for Trump, a 95%-4% margin.
Pick an area of interest. I looked at Massachusetts. It is undeniably a blue state, but there are areas west of Springfield that are Trump country, with 10%+ margins for Trump.
The differences in political orientation by neighborhood suggests both the sorting of people by lifestyle and the limitations of the message of each political party. Democrats are turning off rural people. Losing rural precincts 90-10 is a sign that Democratic message and policies have problems that go beyond race and cultural symbols. Rural people are the biggest beneficiaries of the Affordable Care Act, with its expanded Medicaid that saved rural hospitals, yet they vote decisively against the Democrats who voted it in. Democrats are not being realistic about where a city-dweller's food and energy and building materials come from and what takes place to extract those things and get them to market. I liken it to the convenient blindness of people who eat meat but oppose slaughterhouses.
Republicans speak of urban areas as hell-holes of violent crime, protests, arson, and racial conflict; something they will fix with better borders and hard-knuckle policing. The GOP under Trump represents and advocates for an America that was not so great for Blacks, Hispanics, women, gays, and people who are succeeding in the 21st century American economy. They lose those urban areas decisively.
Jon Tester of Montana, a Democrat with the approximate political orientation of Joe Biden, is doing the things a senator does when he is eyeing a run. He wrote his book, Grounded. Could a guy who operates a wheat farm and who looks like this possibly win a Democratic primary? Maybe not. He just doesn't look like a Democrat, and that is the problem.
7 comments:
As we can see by attitudes toward the pandemic, America is divided between those who care about others and those who don't; and between those who believe in facts and those who prefer to make up their own.
I wish we weren’t so divided but Trump people are so angry, they are addicted to their anger. The anger blocks the frontal cortex from engaging. For the US to remain a great nation we need to be United in some fashion. Religion, sports, war, can unite, but the media is dividing us into our tribes. Dialogue seems pointless, but I hope we keep trying.
"...Democratic message and policies have problems that go beyond race and cultural symbols."
Nah, that's pretty much it.
We don't have a two party system anymore. Republicans have descended into a corporatist/religionist/racist black hole that has profit as it's governing principle. Their current goal is to crash the economy and blame it on Pres. Biden and AOC to gain an advantage in the coming midterms.
But hey, Jon, keep compromising and appeasing. Look how well it worked out for Germany.
The kindest thing I can say about "the rural divide" is that it represents a group of people who have not adapted to the modern era, who live in an agrarian fantasy world of self-sufficiency and racial supremacy, who nihilistically would rather see the world end than admit to being morally flawed and intellectually deficient.
Unfortunately this group is the beneficiary of a representative structure created by the founders who had no inkling of its fatal flaw. We can't change them, but there is hope if we can change the system, starting with the effing filibuster.
I deleted an obscene comment that may have been by Curt Ankerberg. He is a Republican and Trump supporter. I get comments written in a style similar to signed emails he has sent me. Ankerberg was found guilty of committing fraud by a federal court. His own defense was mental defect due to brain damage. Readers who see Trump-ish comments that include crude and obscene language may assume it is Curt Ankerberg, although it might be someone writing in the Ankerberg style.
The comments are a reflection on Ankerberg personally and the politics he promotes.
I’m responding to Rick’s comment specifically and Peter’s post generally -
So what should be the Democratic message from Democratic candidates? Not words alone but action in the form of their presence in good times and bad; and, not just for elections. Rural voters are a tight community and if you want their vote you need to be accepted into their community. Too often the message is “Here’s a little something that you want, now why don’t you vote for me?” All the while, it appears truck loads of benefits are delivered to the urban areas.
If that’s “the kindest thing” Rick can say about rural folks, it’s clear to me that the polarization problem comes at least as much from his side of the divide.
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