California Governor Gavin Newsom needed a bad guy to run against.
Donald Trump and Larry Elder volunteered to serve.
Recalls are dangerous for the incumbent.
Recall elections remove in midterm an incumbent who was elected or appointed into office. Oregon and California both provide for them. Recall petitions were filed against me back when I held office, though neither got enough signatures to cause an election. The incumbent can defeat a recall election, but the odds are against him.
"Recall" is a Progressive Era reform, along with initiatives, referendums, and the direct election of judges. They were put into place a century ago to give direct power to the electorate. It was a check on a corruptible legislature, one beholden to lobbyists and big money donors.
In Oregon and California, recalls are rare because they require a significant number of signatures on petitions, a tedious chore. That hurdle was intended to require the incumbent have done something that roused the ire of a significant body of people.
In recent decades the hurdle changed. Laws allow paid petitioners. Forbes Magazine calculates there are about 800 billionaires in the U.S, which means that billionaires are more common than senators and members of Congress combined. Any one of them by themselves could effortlessly fund a signature drive, even in populous California. It is easier yet in Oregon, in reach of mere millionaires. Recall elections now have the effect of reversing the original Progressive Era purpose of reducing the power of wealthy special interests. They now give them a fearsome weapon that says "don't anger me, or else!"
Recall campaigns are a credible threat. The incumbent stands exposed on a yes-or-no vote. In effect, the voters are asked: "Is there something you don't like about this official?" The voter can wonder if maybe there isn't someone better. The candidate facing recall competes against an imagined ideal. Some voters may wish he had done more of something while others wish he had done less of that same thing; both sides are discontented. Recalls are perfect for Monday morning quarterbacking.
Even Democratic partisans can imagine something they wish Gavin Newsom had done differently. For example, he should never have been married to the loathsome Kimberly Guilfoyle, now the girlfriend of Donald Trump, Junior. He should never have gone to that fancy restaurant. He should have pushed vaccinations harder. Or he pushed them too hard. There is no way to satisfy everybody.
There is a defense for the incumbent, if circumstances permit. Make the election a choice. Find an opponent--create one if necessary--and make them front and center. In the California instance, make clear to voters that if Newsom gets recalled someone else wins. Hope that someone unpopular can be put into the spotlight.
Luckily for Newsom, Trump and Larry Elder volunteered.
Now people who wish Newsom had done more and faster on vaccinations realize that Newsom being recalled means that people who oppose vaccinations will be thrilled. People who recoil from Guilfoyle and Trump Jr. realize that she and Trump Jr. will tweet with delight if Newsom is recalled. People irritated by Newsom's fancy dinner in Napa now pit that irritation with the image of Trump living large at Mar-a-Lago.
Former President Trump is doing exactly what Newsom could have hoped, weighing in with his signature assertion that elections he loses are rigged. Trump went onto conservative media to describe the California recall vote:
“It’s probably rigged. The ballots... are mail-in ballots... I guess you even have a case where you can make your own ballot. When that happens, nobody’s gonna win except these Democrats. The one thing they are good at is rigging elections, so I predict it’s a rigged election.”
Democrats can tear their hair but do nothing about it but vote. Perfect, for Newsom.
We implore you. . . to join us in this fight as you are able, primarily by signing our petition demanding a special session of the California legislature to investigate and ameliorate the twisted results of this 2021 Recall Election of Governor Gavin Newsom.
Elections are unpredictable. Newsom could still lose, but in the uphill battle of recall campaigns, Newsom got what he needed: Someone unpopular to stand as his opponent. In fact, he got two.
5 comments:
All things considered, it seems to me the whole recall effort is intended to propagate the Big Lie in another context. My guess is they don't care if they win, and Larry Elder is the perfect messenger for MAGA "stop the steal" campaign moving into the midterms.
Even if Gov. Newsom wins he will be fighting the Big Lie from here on.
Yes, Kimberley Guilfoyle is a painted maypole who sounds like elephants crossing a minefield of accordions. Imagine Don Jr. and her alone together.
Today it's Newsom's current wife in the spotlight, however. Did she attempt to intercede with a Harvey Weinstein victim to protect the toad?
And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past
I have removed two posts which were written in the style of Curt Ankerberg. Ankerberg's posts are characterized by using someone else's name, obscenities, plagiarism, and nasty name calling.
If readers briefly see obscene posts with an improbable author, there is no guarantee that they are by Curt Ankerberg, but it is a good supposition.
DN: You should cite your source - F. Scott Fitzgerald, the last line of The Great Gatsby.
(That’s rich ...)
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