Monday, February 1, 2021

Slow dancing on Pennsylvania Avenue


     “The enduring attraction of war is this: Even with its destruction and carnage it can give us what we long for in life. It can give us purpose, meaning, a reason for living.” 

           Chris Hedges, War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning.


Important things are happening, at the pace legislation happens. 



Biden is giving peace a chance. We may not want something so humdrum.

Last week's news: 

"Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief proposal, aimed at urgently combating the pandemic and the economic crisis it has triggered. As the US faces its deadliest stage of the pandemic, Biden described the moment as 'a crisis of deep human suffering.'"


Friday's news:  

"Ten Republican senators on Sunday sent a letter to President Joe Biden outlining their rebuttal to his COVID relief proposal as Democrats signaled their intentions to push through the president’s plan without GOP help."


Today's news:  

"President Joe Biden invited a group of 10 Republican senators to the White House on Monday to hear their proposal for a COVID-19 relief package after the conservative coalition sent a letter outlining what they said could be a significantly smaller, but bipartisan effort to support Americans during the ongoing pandemic."


We are watching slow dancing by old people.


Offer. Joe Biden announced a major COVID relief package. It was big enough to please the political left. An idea that had circulated was that President Obama negotiated against himself in his dealings with Republicans on the Affordable Care Act, by starting out trying to please Republicans. The conclusion is that they played Obama. McConnell pretended they were interested, they extracted concessions, and in the end not a single Republican supported the ACA. Moreover, since the bill was full of compromises it lacked the dramatic sizzle and broad reach that would have made it a clear game-changer. The result was that the ACA was unpopular at first. Republicans campaigned against it and won in 2010. 

Biden was urged to learn from that mistake and go big. Don't be a wimp, don't disappoint the left, and don't get played. So Biden asked for $1.9 trillion.

Counteroffer. A group of ten presumably-agreeable Republicans made a counteroffer. Ten is an important number. Ten Republicans plus 50 Democrats is 60, enough to override a filibuster. These people are signaling that there is enough division in the GOP ranks that bi-partisan negotiation is possible. These ten strike a different tone than the majority of the GOP caucus, people who position themselves in smash-mouth opposition to Democrats' horrible, socialistic destruction of the American economy, family, and God. The ten will talk, unlike the Trump-ish Republicans--with Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley now being the most visible--who staked their political future on bellicosity and opposition. 


Offer back. Flirtation. This part is delicate for both Biden and the Republican ten. Biden is showing he is interested in talking. Democrats expected that. The Democratic left knows it has a job to do--keep Biden from giving away the farm in negotiations. Biden cannot be weak. But the idea of a bipartisan bill is attractive to Biden, even if it is worrisome to the left. Democrat Joe Manchin must be aboard and maybe some Republicans, too. The left knows that it cannot get what it really wants and keep Joe Manchin happy. Biden was going to need to compromise, but the question is how much, and whether the Democratic left should praise or condemn what results. 

Meanwhile, the Trump-oriented Republicans have to position themselves. They are sending a message to their base that once again the Democrats are out to destroy America. One point nine trillion is crazy! It is irresponsible! It will bankrupt us and destroy our work ethic!  This is also a warning to the negotiating-ten that they risk trouble in an upcoming primary. Remember Bob Bennet of Utah. He was a conservative Utah senator who worked briefly with Oregon's Ron Wyden to try to create a bi-partisan alternative to the ACA. That was an unforgivable sin among Utah Republicans and his party refused to re-nominate him for a third term. He was replaced by a no-compromise conservative, Mike Lee.

Republican outrage over the $1.9 trillion is a signal to Democrats, too. It helps centrist Democrats, who now constitute the governing plurality in America. Republican outrage gives them cover. The more outraged the opposition from the right the more credible is the Biden position he doesn't have the votes for big change. What will please Bernie Sanders is simply impossible, so the left must stop expecting it. The only path to change at all is in the squishy middle where Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Joe Manchin reside. 

This negotiation takes place at a slow C-SPAN pace of real life, with serious, un-memorable, and confusing talk about provisions in the law. Most people won't follow it because it is slow and boring and more information and nuance than nearly anyone has time for. The talk by participants in the negotiation is careful political-ese that TV viewers respect but find boring. People doing the slow-dance negotiation don't want to burn bridges so they say nice bland things, even about things they disagree with.  Biden needs Manchin and probably Collins and the others. Maybe a deal can happen. But maybe Democrats are being snookered again. They are finding out.

This is not what we are accustomed to in politics of the past four years, and it is not what cable news is designed to deliver. Readers of this blog may have read all the way to the end. It is more exciting to learn what new outrage Donald Trump announced. His legal team left him. He is buddied up with Marjorie Taylor Greene. Ivanka may run against Rubio. Impeachment. Tax fraud. 

We may be hooked on the excitement of war.


5 comments:

Rick Millward said...

I disagree in part. The last four years have been a babysitting job with a destructive toddler. It's been exhausting. I would suggest that prior to that most, like me, didn't spend anywhere near the energy following politics.

It's nice to have a break. The kid's away at camp.

I think it's fair to say we are back at 2008 with many of the same challenges, following an even more corrupt and incompetent Republican administration than Bush, which is saying something, and which will require many of the same remedies, that is to say, money. Lots of money.

My hope is that Democrats have learned their lesson. The 10 senators you mention are a trojan horse and their goal is to undermine Biden by putting out an unworkable plan and then crying foul when it's rejected. That's what the base wants to hear, and they will oblige.

Michael Trigoboff said...

Good. Just what the country needs. Competent policy negotiations instead of outrage porn.

I worry that Biden is blowing his opportunity for unity by making frequent references to culture war issues like “systemic racism,“ and talking about how happy he is that so few of his appointees are white. We need less tribalism in this country, and we won’t get there by ginning up racial tribalism.

Art Baden said...

I don’t see “systematic racism” as a culture war issue. I see it as a bread and butter issue for fellow citizens who have been denied mortgages, agricultural subsidies, seen their communities redlined, been unable to access good schools. And a life and death issue - Driving While Black isn’t just a joke, it’s a reality. So is racial tribalism only OK if the tribe is white?

Michael Trigoboff said...

Racial tribalism is not OK in any direction.

But if anyone thinks that they can encourage racial tribalism in every other group while simultaneously telling white people that they are the one group that is not allowed to be tribal, they are going to be unpleasantly surprised by the political race war that they caused.

Dave Sage said...

Yes, a functioning government with sane, reality based people. Doesn’t seem too boring as it is such a relief from the Trump years. (Notice the past tense.)