Sunday, February 28, 2021

Heads Up: Oregon Gov. Greg Walden

It could happen. 



A moderate-seeming Mr.-Nice-Guy Republican could be elected governor in 2022.


He may not be able to shake off the GOP brand.



Portland summer
Let's start with the grim reality for Democrats. They have been running things in Oregon a long time. Democrats are same-old, same-old. 

There is no clear, obvious Democratic candidate for governor on-deck. Being a conscientious governor at a time of COVID sets a person and party up for failure because no one likes the shutdown-rules. Kate Brown and Democrats suffer from that. At best, people grudgingly accept COVID rules as necessary, even as they second-guess them and are frustrated by them. The people most hurt by the business closures and distancing rules are angry, and there isn't a compensating balance of people who are positively thrilled. Things will be better by November 2022, but there will be a lingering stink of Democrats being kill-joys.

That election will made harder yet by the 2020 Portland summer. Democrats, especially as represented by Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, seemed unable to tell the difference between protest and riot, or if they understood the difference, were unwilling and unable to do anything. Oregon government looked weak and incompetent. It creates the worst of both worlds for the Democratic brand: Tough on honest citizens trying to support their families when it comes to COVID; feckless against Portland anarchists who undermine peaceful protests and vandalize a city.

Yes, the 2022 election could be tough.

A Republican alternative is potentially available: Greg Walden. This blog predicted early and often that Greg Walden would leave the Congress to become a lobbyist. He helped GOP members get elected, but created a monster for himself. The newcomers were Freedom-Caucus-style populists more interested in outrage than governing. As a GOP leader, Walden had the same frustrations as John Boehner and Paul Ryan. Walden left Congress. He is a lobbyist now.

Greg Walden at Town Hall
Maybe not for long. Perhaps I under-estimated his political ambition. He would be swimming in money now, but maybe that isn't where his heart is, not when the governor's office is in reach. Greg Walden has a conservative voting record, but he is not Trump-ish in his language and policy. He is part of the vanishing Main Street-Rotary Club-businessman wing of the GOP, the one that formerly shaped the values and policy of the party. He sounded sincere at Town Meetings when he said he wanted to continue protecting access to health insurance for people with pre-existing conditions, even as his party's policies were threatening them. There was no "replacing Obamacare with something better." Walden understood that, but it appeared that he was sorry about it. He looks and sounds like a sincere, earnest moderate who wants government to work, not a populist who wants to fight culture wars. He is a throw-back to a kinder, gentler Republican style.

Oregonians elected conservative Republican Dennis Richardson as Secretary of State in 2016, in a strong Democratic year. What happened? A liberal Democrat with a public reputation for woke over-reach combined with a Republican candidate who sounded moderate. The "new" Dennis Richardson in 2016 stopped slamming gays and abortion, and began talking about jobs. It worked.

Greg Walden could do the same thing, although he has a problem. Trump did not become "presidential." He governed on behalf of a base that wanted a slash-and-burn warrior. Trump solidified support with the same people who drove Walden, Boehner, and Ryan crazy. It is now their party. They are cleaning out the heretics in Orlando, Florida right now. Walden hasn't spoken out against them. He is threading the GOP needle of a GOP Civil War by being silent as Trump wins handily. It is the strategy that makes sense for a lobbyist who wants access to Republicans, but not one who wants to win a statewide race in Oregon.

I expect him to waltz to an easy win in the GOP primary if he files for governor. He has money and credibility within the GOP. But then, there he would be, the candidate acceptable to the GOP. He would carry the brand, with all the benefit for solidifying 40% of the Oregon vote, but turning off about 60% of it. The Trump party of Oregon is as incautious in messaging and immoderate in policy as the people who drove Walden crazy as a party leader. The GOP appears to have come out of the 2020 election determined to be more than ever the party of outrage. 

The biggest thing that would keep Walden from being elected Oregon's next governor is that the Republican Party has sabotaged its moderates.


8 comments:

Rick Millward said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Diane Newell Meyer said...

I usually love Rick Millward's responses, but not so much today.
I see that Governor Brown has many enemies, and the vitriol against her on Facebook pages and on other pages is really astounding.
I see many Democratic possibilities for governor. How bout Jeff Golden, for example? Others will step forward. One of them could win. I don't see that there would still be a problem with the democratic image regarding Portland's demonstrations by then, if the city is quiet from now on. Of course memory of the pandemic would hopefully become faint by 2022. Hopefully.
I would so hate Walden to be in a position of power again, considering his approach to forestry, which is basically just logging everything.

Ed Cooper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ed Cooper said...

I keep hoping to see some viable Democrats start making noise about running. It not like they're going to be stepping on Kate Browns toes, she's termed out. But the
time to at least form Exploratory Committees is now.
That said, I hope Walden is happier making buckets of money than he would be as Governor, having to make hard choices.
is now. 22 will be here in a blink.

Rick Millward said...

Boy, are you Mr. Sunshine today!

Two things come to mind. First, Walden loved DC...Salem, not so much. Also, He'd definitely be challenged in a primary by a MAGA knucklehead from the right who would force him to pledge allegiance to "Dumpy" (the eighth dwarf) or be branded as a traitor.

You are right in saying that certain Republicans have survived by keeping their heads down and saying little, like Sgt. "I see nothing!" Shultz.

Can one win in Oregon? My bet is the 2022 Republican primary will be cage match with no survivors.

Gov. Brown's quiet competence may be boring, but after the last four years my hope is voters have learned this preferable to the mayhem Republicans invite into society.

Ralph Bowman said...

You better start promoting a winner, mr Sage, cause no Democrat will vote for Walden, the slime who slithered all around Trump and forgot his Eastern Oregon poor. What a phony ...almost worst than the Cliff who is a Trump dud.

Unknown said...

I will vote for Walden!!!

M2inFLA said...

"Gov. Brown's quiet competence may be boring..."

I think just about everyone has had a hard time identifying the Governor's competence.

She ignores the competency demonstrated in other states. Look no further than the vaccine rollout, and her being afraid to conduct regular press conferences.

I don't think Walden will run. All he brings to the table is name recognition. He'll likely start enjoying his retirement.