The Republican Convention has a message for suburban Americans:
He loves Black people and they love him.
Actually, he likes immigrants.
He's OK with Muslims.
He's sad about Covid deaths.
Mr. Nice Guy
"For the first time in decades we have a president that has no political axe to grind, has the courage to act and has done more for this country by his actions than any president in recent history and actions, not rhetoric, are what counts."
Letter sent to me yesterday by "Bill."
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| The Simpsons TV Show |
Bill is a retired physician: white, male, Evangelical Christian. Earlier this month he sent me a letter saying Black athletes disrespect America when they take a knee during the National Anthem and how wonderful the original US Constitution was, and how much he liked Trump. I reminded him the original Constitution permitted slavery, did not allow Blacks or women to vote, counted Blacks as 3/5 for purposes of enumeration. I said this might be showing just a little bit of racism. He was indignant. Racist? Him? Of course he didn't actually want slavery, he said. He just liked things they way they were before modern attitudes--Democrats and liberals--ruined a darned good America.
Bill represents an important element of Trump's support. These are people who are uncomfortable amid America's changing demographics, growing secularism, renewed consciousness of racial injustice. Trump overtly appeals to these Americans' sense of tradition and of displacement of white male Christians like himself from being the presumed and default center of American culture.
Bill feels under attack by Democrats, who represent the rising tide of secularism and diversity. He says and thinks things he considers simply "normal" and "reasonable" yet finds them being described by others as "maybe just a little racist, Bill." He resents it.
He finds a refuge in Fox News. They "get" him. The opinion hosts dislike the same people he dislikes. They say things that Democrats think are xenophobic and racist. They indignantly disagree with that on the air. They say Democrats read too much into Trump's behavior and tweets. Trump is misunderstood and so is Fox and so are the vast, vast majority of White Americans. They aren't prejudiced.
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That is the primary Trump style. Trump calls Maxine Walters "Low IQ," calls NFL players who take a knee "sons of bitches," and warns "suburban housewives" that Democrats intend to destroy suburbs because a Black Housing Secretary will let low income people live in their cities. He describes immigrants as invaders full of murdering gang members, so he tries to reduce legal immigration while ending DACA, blocking immigration from majority Muslim countries, and proudly used separating immigrant children from parents as a way to discourage entry by people seeking asylum. Now he is talking about law and order and urban violence surrounding Black Lives Matter.
It was too much for some. Too raw and in your face. The Republican Convention was intended to pull wavering educated suburbanites back into the fold.
Black US Senator Tim Scott spoke highly of Trump. So did Black NFL star Herschel Walker.
Melania Trump expressed sympathy for people who got Covid and died.
A Navaho leader thanked Trump for the grant money to deal with Covid.
A Black leader thanked Trump for directing grant money to historically Black Colleges.
Donald Trump pardoned a Black inmate who had turned his life around.
Donald Trump witnessed the citizenship ceremony for immigrants. Most were dark skinned and one wore a head scarf.
Larry Kudlow spoke to the low unemployment rate for Black and Latinix Americans, until the Covid crisis, at least. See what he did for people of color.
Trump is not trying to win minority support. This is a message to White voters that they can relax. Trump has some Black friends and he likes immigrants. The Administration feels bad about Covid deaths. Trump can't be racist or guilty of minimizing Covid.
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| White House Ceremony |
People see what they need to see. People who needed evidence Trump was OK got it. Black endorsers. The head scarf. And if what you need to see is a person with "no political ax to grind," then--like Bill--you can.
Trump has been the center of attention for five years. He has supporters, fans. He is a star. People who like him--and tens of millions do--will find mental reasons to justify it. The convention provides little message packets that people to latch onto, to reassure you that Trump is OK. A star has latitude. People are inclined to believe, to say "yes" to him. As Trump noted, "When you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab 'em by the pussy. You can do anything."
This is an advantage for Trump. Biden isn't a star, not even close.
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Meanwhile, a Black editor of a financial newsletter I read, has a daily column. But not today. He wrote this, instead. It gives a perspective on this political and social moment that may be of value to my White readers. Things aren't right in America:
Dion Rabouin
Axios Markets
| I can't write a newsletter today. NBA players began a strike last night, refusing to play basketball and effectively saying that while we cannot control the laws or the courts or the actions of others, what we can control is ourselves. We control our bodies and our minds, and no matter what you take from us, you cannot take that. Whenever someone stands up to fight for justice, one must always ask whether that stand is a moment or a movement. I hope that what the NBA started last night was a movement. I hope it was a movement for change, and a movement for justice and for equality. I don’t have much to give to that movement, but I have my body and I have my mind and I have this little newsletter that you all read. Maybe I can make a difference somehow by showing that you don't have to be a superstar to take a stand. Jacob Blake was shot in the back seven times while walking away. To my eyes, he walked away because he was sick and tired of being harassed by armed agents of the state whose occupation is supposed to be to protect him. I don’t know Jacob Blake but I know what it’s like to be tired of police harassment and to decide that enough is enough. So did Eric Garner. So did Sandra Bland. So did so many others. This is must end. I’ve been stopped and frisked. I’ve been assaulted. I’ve been thrown to the ground or on the hood of a car and handcuffed by these same armed agents of the state for the crime of looking suspicious or being in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong skin. And I know exactly what it’s like to have that pit well up in the back of my throat as I decided that I had taken enough. I was fortunate enough to not end up dead. Or paralyzed. Many of you reading this are CEOs, presidents, founders, and asset managers who oversee billions of dollars. If I have the chance to speak to you and say one thing from my heart, it’s this: Understand that there is profound injustice happening in this country and it has been happening for as long as any of us can remember and it eats away at us every day. Nothing changes until people decide it’s unconscionable for things to continue the way they are. It feels like we may have reached that point, and I stand with the people who are taking a stand for change. Even if all I have is a little newsletter. |
7 comments:
"He just liked things they way they were before modern attitudes--Democrats and liberals--ruined a darned good America."
That guy again...It's like "I have a black/gay friend"...
When was that "darned good America" again?
My guess for some it was 1775.
The Power of Incumbency
As a few readers of this blog may know, in 2015-16 I regularly reported on Trump's projected win according to four major non-poll based models and one long-term voter survey inventory. I will submit a proposed detailed guest post on this next week, but due to the "woke data" movement of calling out and cancelling political scientists who predict another Trump win, we have less data. The models I reported on were all university based, and the "woke" activists on those campuses shout that even reporting data showing Trump will win is unwoke and anti-democratic. Professor Helmut Nortpoth is an exception, and his model projects Trump's re-election at about 90% probability. (By the way, few if any credible projection models rely upon polling data). See, "Maverick Modeller Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump" (Aug 3, 2020, Stoneybrook University, shorturl.at/sxyFV). Northpoth's model at a very basic level holds that a candidate of one party who lost the New Hampshire primary (Biden) will lose his challenge to a candidate of the other party who won that primary (Trump) so long as that winner also won the South Carolina primary by decisively higher margins than the challenger. Biden lost New Hampshire by a humiliating margin. Trump won both primaries overwhelmingly, i.e. the "advantage of incumbency".
So, as Peter's post today highlights, what we are looking at in the RNC convention is the hyper-use of incumbency by Trump, mixing his roles as President and candidate. The effectiveness of it is undeniable. We will get indications of whether the Stonybrook model is right yet again if we see a marked falling trend in Biden's poll numbers. The best hope of Democrats would be to dump Biden and go with Senator Harris at the top of the ticket. Since Harris suspended her campaign before New Hampshire, Norpoth's primary model would not apply to her, nor to Julian Castro and Cory Booker.
The sad thing is that sensible people like Dion Rabouin, who almost anyone can hear and understand and empathize with, are being drowned out by the woke fanatics and rioters.
I can support Mr. Rabouin 100%. But I will not support the insane and destructive demands of the extreme left.
I wish I were the kind of political genius who could figure out how to get the sensible majority in the middle to get together and ignore the extremists on both sides. I wish that genius would come along and help us all.
I have news for Pete Sage....
Trump's support is growing daily, and he's going to win the majority of the "battleground" states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas). The fact is that the economy was buzzing along at a record clip before Covid hit, and Covid is the tool China used to hurt America. Trump has done a good job during the Covid crisis in-spite of democrats dragging their feet. Let's talk about Kate Brown, who can't even issue unemployment checks, or perhaps that weak weasel Ted Wheeler.
I'm a sophisticated political analyst, and I think that people are absolutely fed-up with the bogus Covid lock-downs, and I think that they are really fed-up with the democrat party-sponsored riots in various cities. The party is over, and the electorate is going to DESTROY democratic candidates for being a party to the attempted destruction of America. Democrats are going to pay a HUGE price in November.
Biden can't even speak anymore, and he's threatening to not come out of his cave in order to debate Trump. Biden is that demented that he now is afraid to debate. Voters are NOT stupid, in-spite of Peter Sage's spin. Democrats are going to get annihilated by Trump. Democrats will lose control of congress, too. When you don't have a viable agenda, and you support anarchy (like the democrats do), then you are toast. November is going to be ugly for democrats. Think George McGovern.
Something is happening out there in the sports world. Teams not playing, black people saying they are tired of being hung, shot at. The postponement of sports may resonate enough to get people to vote. I think a big movement of some kind may be happening that will change America for the better. It is bigger than Trump/Biden. I hope so.
Apolitical Events May destroy the whole game plan.
Unpaid bills, evictions, delayed unemployment checks, children not learning , no school lunches, no internet access in rural Oregon, also if available who can afford it? Long food bank lines, people without a safety net or relatives with means, savings tapped out ,0 bank accounts, no health care, . Deferred mortgages of houses rented out and owned by the old. Small businesses unable to regain their customer base and so shutter one after the other. When all of this comes due, all hell will break lose. And then the flu season begins.
Can a Candidate capture the moment Or will the moment destroy any interest in politics.
Generally, folks under 40 are of the democratic socialist ilk of Bernie and AOC. The establishment Dems pulled a coup on this so-called "Radical Left" (they don't even come close to FDR) for third-rated Biden. So the days of the centrists and moderates are numbered as they age out unless they can coopt these younger folks in record time.
Trump has worked hard to manufacture "law and order" as an issue just as Nixon did in the seventies. Biden bit then and he will likely bite now as the Dems are well-practiced at playing defense. Both parties want to appeal to mostly white, professional, suburban voters who will ultimately choose the safety of their personal property over the suffering and freedom of speech of poor whites and blacks. The Dems abandonment of and outright abuse of the "Radical Left" and their daily courting of the Right may, indeed, translate into low voter turnout among the young. Putting all their eggs in the suburban voter basket, hoping to peel off Independents and disaffected Republicans, they could end up with egg on their face. If Trump wins, you can bet they will blame the "radical Left" victims of their failed "centrist" strategy.
Andy Seles
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