Trump's voters turn out. Biden messes up. Third party. Kanye West. Election chaos.
Any of those would do it.
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| Trump country |
Trump might just win the old fashioned way, by getting more votes. We can start with the simple fact that Donald Trump proved he has lots of supporters. He got just under 63 million votes. He won 304 electoral votes to Hillary's 227. Trump's brand of America First ethno-nationalism fits the electoral college. It plays better in the Upper Midwest than it does on the coasts. National numbers mislead.
Readers of this blog who live in coastal city or college town enclaves don't fully experience the reality of Trump's popularity. Californias cities; Portland, Oregon; Boston and Cambridge, Massachusetts; New York City are micro-climates politically. Diversity is a good thing there; it isn't a good thing everywhere. In those areas people may get their news from the NY Times and Washington Post, or local institutions that draw from them. Trump's name creates a "yuck" response. In the electoral college a win is a win and margin doesn't count, so big wins in California are irrelevant. Trump is not unpopular everywhere. Quite the opposite.
If with every piece of bad news out there for Trump--high unemployment and Covid deaths of 1,500 a day, Bolton's book, Mary Trump's book--Trump is still within a couple of points in the swing states, we see that he can take a hit and come back, just like he did with the Access Hollywood tape.
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| Long, long answers in NH |
Biden could mess up. There are lots of ways to do that. One, simply, is to catch the virus and be sick. He doesn't need to die or even be hospitalized, although Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister who is younger and more vigorous than Biden got the virus and was in intensive care. Ask yourself: could a Biden in intensive care win an election? Could he, even if in and then out of a hospital, win an election?
Or he could go off script and say something that confirmed the case that dear old Joe is well past his prime. He presents much better when he is on script than when he speaks extemporaneously. I watched him give long, long rambling answers in two different town halls. He came across as loquacious, not exactly addled, but I could imagine him utterly losing his train of thought and then it being one of those moments equivalent to Gerald Ford saying at a debate against Jimmy Carter that Eastern Europe was not dominated by the Soviet Union. What? Poland not under the thumb of the USSR??? Ford looked incompetent.
Critics of Biden taunt him with talk of "hiding in the basement in Delaware." They want him out, getting sick or making errors. It could happen.
Third party attracts anti-Trump votes. Because I post links to this blog in progressive Facebook Groups I get critics who say this blog is "too centrist and moderate" and they observe that I am a prosperous, white, male, boomer, part of the Democratic "donor class." They say my boomer generation screwed up the world, destroyed the middle class, impoverished future generations, let the planet heat up, and let the "establishment types" in the DNC steal the Democratic nomination, twice.
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| Example of Facebook comments |
Readers who aren't familiar with Bernie Sanders' portion of the American left may under-estimate how utterly certain many of its voters are convinced that Sanders was cheated in 2016 and 2020. The nomination was stolen, obviously, they know. Of course he won overwhelmingly in Iowa, but the votes were counted in such a way that Buttigieg--a disgusting toady of corporate elites--could claim victory. The vote count in New Hampshire that showed him essentially tied with Buttigieg was manipulated. Voters were deceived. Votes in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday were manipulated. The media hated Bernie and hid his message.
Trump's campaign has a huge natural entry point for splitting the left-oriented vote. Russian trolls and paid false-flag participants may well assist, but they would simply be amplifying the natural, organic division within real partisans. A Biden win is more dangerous to progressive politics than would be a Trump win. Trump winning means they can blame the DNC and establishment left for choosing the wrong candidate--again! A Trump victory empowers the Bernie left with a clearer opponent saying things they clearly oppose. Biden, they are confident, might say the right things, more or less, but would govern from the middle, continuing the status quo. This reality is not lost on them.
Kanye West attracts votes. The Trump campaign is openly and proudly assisting Kanye West getting on the ballot. West has the potential to draw young and black voters, presumably voters more likely to vote for Biden than Trump. West has the potential to hurt Biden with messages that Biden's support for abortion is an attempt to kill Black babies, that Biden hasn't done anything good for Blacks, that Biden is old and boring. Young voters may well be far more familiar with Kanye West than they are with Biden. West can say things that Trump cannot say.
People who want a vote for change have a new avenue.
People who want a vote for change have a new avenue.
The fact that getting Kanye West onto ballots is being done openly by Trump campaign personnel is a feature, not a bug, of Trump messaging. Trump breaks norms. He demonstrates that he is unconcerned with sportsmanship or avoiding hypocrisy. He plays to win for his team, any way and any how. It is his brand.
Election chaos. Trump is open, too, about using the Post Office to manage the vote. The announcement by the Post Office yesterday that they may not be able to deliver on time election ballots has three big effects. One is to discourage people from voting by mail, Trump's openly acknowledged intent. Democrats are expected to vote by mail, Republicans not as much, except in Florida, where Trump says things will work great. The second is to pre-announce that the election count may well be chaotic and unfair, this time the announcement coming from the Post Office itself. Trump can claim victory or claim he was cheated, an idea that has sticking power among partisans. (Note Bernie Sanders supporters today.) The third is to make the point to his supporters, once again, of how President Trump fights for his political supporters, using the power he has against the tide of Democratic-establishment-swamp-Deep State-elite power. He plays to win.
Any one of these could be more than enough.
4 comments:
Yes to all of what you wrote Peter, but still I predict a Democratic sweep all across the board. Swing states favor Biden, not Trump. Senate races will be close, but the greater voter motivation is not to vote for Trump, rather it’s voters who want to vote against Trump. The only thing to stop this will be voter suppression and not funding the post office. The post office is too American to not be funded. Republicans against funding the post office? Too blatant. But I do live in the State of Washington bubble, so I could be wrong.
My relatives in Kansas support Trump. They have voted Republican all their lives. Their only concern appears to be the lack of services for roads, schools, libraries and higher education. Local issues. They do not like the darker elements of Trump’s personality. These are not deal breakers. CoVid19 has hit Kansas. The pandemic is what it is, an illness without a cure. Not Trump’s fault. Democrats are seen as not interested in the problems of Kansas as Democrats opine, make jokes and write horrible books about Kansas voters. The Koch brothers in Wichita have cast their support for Trump the effect lingers even as the Koch influence wanes. I would say Kansans support for Republicans is like their support for KU football and basketball... strong even in a losing season.
"He plays to win for his team"
This is the only thing I'd take issue with in an otherwise excellent analysis. My sense of this is that the "team" is a team of one. Other than rhetoric those voters have not gotten much for their fealty.
It's been established that nearly everything Trump says is a lie, the most recent was taking credit for the Israel/UAE supposed treaty which most observers see as ratification of an existing de facto relationship. This is latest of over 20,000 verified untruths, more than enough to disqualify any politician, but Trump supporters don't hear the fact check, and if they do they discount it just like all the other inconvenient realities in their lives.
What many of us wonder is what, if anything, would shake Trump's grip on his cult? The simple answer, and a reality hard to accept, is nothing.
Republicans don't like Trump, but they tolerate him because he's all they have. No other politician has been able to build a national constituency that has a chance of winning. As long as he has a chance, and you are right he still can win, they will prop him up and overlook the incompetence and self-dealing. It's a remarkably cold blooded deal with the Devil they have struck, and a calculation that shows an utter contempt of the American people and the ideals it stands for.
It's no wonder that principled Republicans have left the party, sadly, not nearly enough.
Nope, no team. Lord of the Flies
Anonymous: Thomas Frank, that "What's the Matter with Kansas" writer also took on the liberals in "Listen Liberal;" like me, he's an equal opportunity critic. His latest book, "The People, No, A History of Anti-Populism" explores how the duopoly keeps us populists at each other's throats.
Yes, pretty spot on analysis, Peter. You said that progressives "say my boomer generation screwed up the world, destroyed the middle class, impoverished future generations, let the planet heat up, and let the "establishment types" in the DNC steal the Democratic nomination, twice. Readers who aren't familiar with Bernie Sanders' portion of the American left may under-estimate how utterly certain many of its voters are convinced that Sanders was cheated in 2016 and 2020. The nomination was stolen, obviously, they know. Of course he won overwhelmingly in Iowa, but the votes were counted in such a way that Buttigieg--a disgusting toady of corporate elites--could claim victory. The vote count in New Hampshire that showed him essentially tied with Buttigieg was manipulated. Voters were deceived. Votes in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday were manipulated. The media hated Bernie and hid his message." Count me in as the "utterly certain" on both counts...how much evidence of DNC, DCCC and DSCC manipulation do we need? As to the Boomers' failure I suggest the Atlantic article on "College-Educated Professionals are Capitalism’s Useful Idiots" by Kurt Anderson which covers the Boomers' estrangement from, and abandonment of, the working class during the Vietnam era.
Andy Seles
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