Trump is losing by more than 2 to 1 in California. Things were bad, and they are getting worse for him.
He doesn't care. He has an electoral college strategy.
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The Berkeley Institute of Intergovernmental Studies released a poll this week showing only 29% of Californians now planned to vote for Trump; 67% opposed him. This is even worse than his 30 point loss in 2016. It was a robust poll of over 4,500 people.
The problem is that in the electoral college, Trump can only lose California once. California is 10 percent of the country, and its numbers get figured into national numbers. Trump is in trouble nationally, but in the nation excluding California, it isn't so bad. As Trump supporters note, Trump won the popular vote in the country, once you exclude California.
In California 69% of voters disapprove of his job performance. In California 72% think the country is on the wrong track. Those indicators of Trump weakness that show up in national numbers. Democrats who take comfort in a 4 point lead of a Democrat over Trump, or a persistent 4 point spread in an Approval-Disapproval figure, would be underestimating the California affect on a national poll. A 52-48 split against Trump means an electoral college victory for him, because in that mix is the California 10% of the country splitting 70-30 against him. That 10% piece moves the national number 4 points.
In the electoral college, losing big in California is no worse than losing in a squeaker--55 electoral votes--and Trump is running against California for the financial and cultural benefit of the swing states. The 2017 tax bill's limit on deductions for State and local taxes penalized blue states like California, while lowering taxes in red states with low income taxes. Trump's big message on immigration plays badly in California, with its huge population of Latinix and Asians, but is received better in states in the Upper Midwest, with a predominately white native-born population spooked about demographic change.
For Trump's base, California is the horror story to avoid. It has prosperity, sure, but with high taxes, congestion, alternative lifestyles, and non-Hispanic whites are already a minority.
California matters in a popular vote, and it is how we look at most polls, but that is not how we elect presidents. Democrats need to win big to win at all.
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3 comments:
Yes, at this moment the polls indicate a closely divided electorate, but there is still time for a couple of things to happen.
Whether it's VP Biden or Sen. Warren Democratic enthusiasm will surge after the primary. That will help.
If Sen. Sanders withdraws (ASAP). That will help, especially if he realizes the danger in pursuing his Quixotic quest.
The stock market, manufacturing, agriculture, etc. are not looking good, suggesting that GOP tax cuts and tariffs are hurting the economy. Not good.
A growing realization of corruption, possible indictments of family members, enablers, etc. Tax Returns...
Congressional Republicans growing spines. (Possible!...??) I believe it's a matter of the first one who panics and then leads a stampede. Mitt, you listening? Is the RNC really going to back a candidate under impeachment? A first!
FOX being forced to report the impeachment hearings and the unavoidable truths therein. Hannity defects? Tucker enters a monastery...(one can dream!)
Lotta moving parts...
In your dreams, Rick. Bernie is a fighter. Here’s a more realistic scenario: Elvis returns in a UFO and lands on the WH lawn and is declared King.
Go ahead and impeach Drumpf. He might still be the nominee.
Bernie raised $25M in the last quarter. No one else is close.
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