Of course, Trump is guilty.
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| Street fighter character |
It won't get him removed from office.
Americans knew Trump was a dirty street fighter when we elected him. That wasn't a bug. It was a feature.
The 2020 election will not be a referendum on Trump. Voters will be forced to choose between a flawed president and a Democrat who by election day will seem even more dangerous to a great many people.
People appalled by Donald Trump have a hard time believing he can be good at anything. In fact, he is enormously talented at defending himself in this media environment and projecting a personae that thrills a lot of Americans. He uses the tools of wild, newsworthy accusations, shows of contempt, name calling, and lack of concern for consistency or hypocrisy. He is shameless, and therefore confident and forthright in his assertions.
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| Happy to fight |
He plays the role of the victim who fights back.
Thad Guyer predicts Trump won't be impeached, and may well be elected, not because Trump is a good president but because he is a good political street fighter and because Democrats are pushing forward candidates he easily can characterize as extreme.
In 2016 Americans elected a person who had just been exposed on tape and video saying he grabbed women "by the pussy" and wanted to "fuck the married woman" he was about to meet. How could he actually win a majority of the votes of white women under those circumstances?
Answer: He made the Democrat seem even worse.
Guyer is an attorney. He does some Legal Services cases in Medford, Oregon, but his primary practice is an international one defending whistleblower employees, done from wherever he and his laptop computer chooses to be. Now, most frequently, it is in Vietnam.
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| Thad Guyer |
Guest Post by Thad Guyer
Peter's post cuts right to the heart of the future of the impeachment effort and Trump's reelection prospects-- it's all about the jurors, i.e. senators. Jurors decide who is more harmful to society, a lawless citizen or a lawless cop; or which is more valuable to a community, employees reporting wrongdoing or executives growing businesses and jobs. GOP senators will decide if its better or worse for America that Trump’s presidency continues or ends. Three compelling questions will determine if Republican senators vote to end Trump: (1) Are Trump's accusers themselves innocent of wrongdoing; (2) was Trump’s misconduct far outside our expectations of him when he was elected; and (3) would GOP senators by removing Trump protect the rule of law in its broader form or simply reward lawless Democrats?
Two precedents are predictive: (1) Cavanaugh’s confirmation trial, and (2) the Mueller special counsel investigation that acquitted Trump of Russian collusion, and found lack of jurisdiction over obstruction of justice. The humiliating failure of Democrats on both has seriously eroded trust in the media that a winning impeachment effort requires. Cavanaugh's conduct as a high school and college undergrad presented GOP senators with no politically credible issues as to “the rule of law”. The Mueller investigation proved nothing—not even obstruction-- by the clear and convincing evidence that Republican senators will demand. Nor has any Trump misdeed I’m aware of been far outside the nation’s expectations of him. America knowingly elected a dirty street fighter famous for dodging indictment to achieve his ends, and he won’t be removed for delivering exactly that to his GOP base.
More consequentially, in the Cavanaugh and Mueller precedents the accusers were themselves tainted by the overtly partisan prosecution—i.e. Democrats bent on 2016 revenge under a false flag of “the rule of law” that the GOP wasn’t buying. It will be the same with impeachment. House Democrats who’ve screamed for impeachment literally foaming at the mouth from day one have zero credibility in the Senate. It’s undisputed that Biden's son was getting rich in the Ukraine while the Vice President demanded removal of the prosecutor investigating the company making his kid rich. “It was not illegal” is no defense but a Trump defense. As to protecting the rule of law, removing Trump would insure election of a secularist, socialist or anti-capitalist Democrat whose campaign pledges threaten GOP orthodoxy that God and Capitalism are the cornerstones of our constitutional democracy, indeed of the rule of law itself. Thus, even if Trump is guilty of “quid pro quo” in “the Ukraine”, hesitant GOP senators will easily reason that it’s absurd to lay claim to saving the republic by installing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders in the oval office. Call it acquittal, call it jury nullification, the GOP Senate removing Trump from office is a self-destructive Democratic fantasy.
A failed impeachment will strengthen Trump's reelection bid by giving him his biggest win yet. The GOP will turn it into a trial of Joe and Hunter Biden, the FBI adulterers, Comey leaks, the IG report against FBI officials, and the new DOJ “Durham criminal probe” of Obama’s intelligence chiefs for spying on the Trump campaign. It may be better for Trump to have Romney and a few other GOP “traitors” proving that the war against corrupt political elites and their lawless hoaxes is bipartisan. If Trump’s presidency is to end, it won’t be by the GOP Senate. If he is reelected, the failed impeachment will go down in history as a major factor in Democratic defeat.
5 comments:
There’s no question House Democrats are determined to impeach President Trump. Some have been trying since shortly after his inauguration. Yet their Ukraine-based case for removing him suffers from the same problem as “their case against the president in the Russia matter” — to wit, “they are accusing Trump of attempted crimes that never actually came to fruition.” For example, “in the Russia affair, Democrats hoped to show that the Trump campaign” colluded with the Kremlin to steal the 2016 election — only have the claim debunked by special counsel Robert Mueller. Likewise, Dems are now touting a lawless “quid pro quo” with Kiev: military aid in exchange for Ukrainian dirt on Joe Biden. But even assuming Trump offered such an exchange, “it wasn’t done,” and “he dropped it.” An attempted quid pro quo isn’t the same thing as an actual one, which means “the Democratic case is perhaps not as strong as they would have you believe.
Just imagine for a moment if the Democrats in the House would focus on legislation that improves the daily lives of voters and businesses.
I'm reminded of the stream of emails I've received from dpo.org and democraticparty@democrats.org telling me just how bad our corrupt President is, and how just a few more dollars sent their way will make our country better.
They seem to leave out the details as to h=what they will do to make our country (and state) better.
Even last week, the scary headlines about the increased deficit was terrible, without telling the complete story - tax revenues are actually up, but our spending is increasing faster.
The Democratic Party candidates running for office do promise that they will be spending more, but leave out the fact that taxing only "the rich" won't be able to pay for this new spending.
It would be nice, just once, to hear some honesty.
Comments on the article and on the two comments before me.
I don't know if it is now true that a failed impeachment means trump wins in 2020. Look at his reception at the baseball game!
The Mueller report was not failed, but was in fact damning, but the rules said that trump could not be indicted. Many people went to prison, and more will follow.
To Byron: There are laws on the books against attempted murder, so the deed does not have to be done to convict, it is just a lesser charge. Trump worshipers are part of a cult,and will believe anything, but the rest of us did not believe that trump was the good guy. Hillary won the popular vote, and many people who voted for trump will turn on him this time.
Cutting the bloated military and taxing the rich would indeed do a lot to pay for some of the proposed programs by the dem candidates.
To Anonymous: you need to remember that over 100 bills doing good things were passed by congress this year, but but sit on Moscow Mitch's desk.
With Walden retiring (yes, Peter, I remember your prediction!), and others bailing out, who knows what the senate will do with the impeachment?
That Backlog, you might mean some of these:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/438724-mcconnell-lays-out-agenda-as-house-bills-pile-up
Yepp, some things could blow up, just in time for the campaign season.
Note well, the candidates aren't talking much about that backlog at all.
Perhaps Hillary will start talking; she may be up for a rematch.
Attempted corruption and abuse of power? He would not be convicted by a jury of his peers (they have, or would do the same thing).
Still crazy after all these years ...
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