How Trump would win.

Trump could win

Get used to this reality:

Incumbent presidents have a big edge and usually win re-election. 

Whatever pendulum that allowed a president to win in the first place takes eight years, not four, to play itself out.

Trump popularity will rebound. Trump looks unpopular now, but so did Obama two years out, and Clinton, Reagan, and Nixon. The history is not that low popularity remains. It is that low popularity rebounds back to "normal." Trump will get about half the votes on election day, maybe more. 

The election is not in the bag for Democrats. Forget that.

Remember, it's the economy, stupid. Unemployment is at a low. The economy isn't any better than it was at the end of Obama's term, but Obama didn't sell the recovery taking place. Trump said it was carnage. That idea stuck: Obama carnage. Two months after Trump was in office he switched and said the economy was now great and that idea stuck. Bottom line reality: Trump gets credit credit for a great economy. 

Trump has an easy message, already fixed into the public mind: a Republican businessman fixed the economy. If we have a 2020 recession (which I think is likely) then he will blame it on Democrats. It may not be accurate, but it is plausible and sellable. 

Trump will say Dems want a free for all

Trump will demonize Democrats. Democrats hope and expect they will be identified with the good things they hope to do: expanded access to health care, infrastructure, more affordable college, and a kinder, gentler overall tone with an end to Trumpism. We hear the advice repeated everywhere, including on this blog: have a positive message of a better America.

Trump will fight that.

Trump dispatched 15 Republicans, divided Democrats, then dispatched Hillary Clinton. Trump does not only brand himself, he brands his opponents. 

Thanks to Trump branding, by election day, Democrats will be known for:

1. Wanting open borders for immigration, at great risk to public safety and jobs.

Trump will say Dems want to kill her

2. Hostility to law enforcement, because they are soft and care more about outsiders than they do about citizens.

3. Abortions in the ninth month, causing dismemberment of live babies, an outrage.

4. Socialist confiscation of property through high taxes.

5. Health care disruption that will take away your current health insurance and destroy Medicare.

6. Generous give-away benefits that you will pay pay for, and which will go mostly to other people.

7. Reparations and affirmative action and penalties for being white and law abiding.

Trump will say Dems want them to take your money.

The overarching Trump message, November 2020

     "Democrats, led by coastal elites, college town liberals, and socialist wack jobs, had such relentless hatred of Trump's plain speaking Americanism, that they went off the rails as a party, and nominated someone who believes extreme things that will hurt people like you, and you cannot take that risk."

It really does not matter who Democrats nominate, Bernie, Beto, Biden, Harris, anyone. That will be the message. 

By election day, voters will once again have two bad choices, just like 2016, and both will seem risky, but in different ways. One will be undisciplined Trump, but who at least gave us a strong economy and we know what we are getting. The other is the Democrat, who will be made to seem wacky, extreme, and dangerous.

A great many people will want the less-risky candidate, and Trump will be positioned to be that person.