Greg Walden Retirement Talk

Greg Walden. Short timer?

Heads up. This may be Greg Walden's final term.

I have been saying it for over a year now: Congressman Greg Walden is likely to pack it in.

Democrats and Republicans will be jockeying for the open seat in 2020.

Talk of Greg Walden retirement is now seeping out into the mainstream political commentary media, most recently today's Daily Kos, which made reference to a Politico speculation, that maybe Oregon's Greg Walden would not run for re-election in 2020.  

Oregon media hasn't noticed it yet.  Newsrooms have thinned out, but they will catch up. The signs are building.

Status, power, and misery. 

Daily Kos, today

This blog has been observing repeatedly that Walden's heart has not been in this.

To review:

 1. His skill as a fundraiser and legislator elevated him to leadership in the GOP. He had both status and power. He was Chair of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee at a time when his committee handled two of the most important issues in America, health care and the ACA repeal, plus telecommunications including net neutrality.

2. "Mr. Chairman." Having achieved status and power in the majority party, it was glorious to have the big office, staff, and influence and association with the most important issues and players in American government.  Lobbyists came to him, paying tribute. The money poured in, both for his own campaigns and for him to re-distribute to others in the GOP caucus. It had to feel great. 

3. Now he isn't. The House now has a Democratic majority. Now he addresses someone else as Mr. Chairman. He moved offices.

4. Being Chairman and in Leadership was actually miserable for him, because it put him in constant conflict with himself. Walden is actually a "moderate" by GOP standards, but there 
are powerful voices within the Republican caucus--and Trump's--pushing policies that 
Walden must accommodate.  Walden isn't stupid or ideologically cruel. He realizes his
constituents actually benefited enormously from the ACA, but he helped lead a party with a policy objective of reversing those benefits.  It was made harder by the fact that the GOP caucus is so deeply divided that two GOP speakers have resigned in frustration. He isn't herding cats. He was also herding lemmings.

5. Walden had to parrot the "GOP company line" which turned him into a dissembler, and then a fugitive in his own District.. He had told District audiences with apparent sincerely that he supported expanded Medicaid for the working poor in his District and that he would preserve healthcare access to people with pre-existing conditions. He had to stop having public meetings in his District. 

My prediction throughout 2018: Walden would leave the congress after this term. 

Free at last. Free at last.

A key indicator: Walden broke ranks.

On January 5 this blog described an important new development, one ignored by Southern Oregon media. Walden was one of seven Republicans to vote to end the shutdown. This was a huge "tell."

Walden got his conscience back.


.

Now what?  He could just stay where he is. 

Being Ranking Member of Energy and Commerce is not all bad: there is some status and the lobbyists still call to pay tribute. And since his responsibilities now are to obstruct, not create, he has more freedom to be himself. He can raise lots of money and once again flood the District with billboards and TV. The seat still has a strong Republican lean.

But I am guessing this is his final term. 

Walden has options. There is a better life available to him, and time to pursue it. 

He is a superb fundraiser. Smooth. Pleasant. Comfortable with corporate money men. Not too ideologically rigid. Knowledgeable about how Congress works. Respected by his colleagues. He could be so happy as a lobbyist, perhaps for the drug industry, or better yet for the broadcast industry. 

He would not have Freedom Caucus crazies to accommodate. No looking constituents in the eye and telling them that Republican and Trump efforts to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions really, actually, means keeping protections for pre-existing conditions. Walden knows better, and that kind of dishonest verbal footwork has got to be miserable for him. 

Politico, today

Greg Walden doesn't consult with me about his retirement plans, but I hear about him from others. He is happier now, they tell me. And he should be.

But my guess is that he doesn't like the demotion from "Mr. Chairman" and there is such very green grass available to him if he leaves the Congress. Been there. Done that.

I expect him to finish out this term and move on. The fact that he is now on a watch list for resignation by the national media means that others are waking up to this.