Trump and Kim are in Hanoi, talking about what to do about the nukes.
This could work out. It also might not.
Unpredictable bluster and a domestic audience to impress are doubly dangerous in combination.
Donald Trump has made a virtue out of being unpredictable. He says he keeps other people guessing and nervous. We give wide berth on the sidewalk to people shouting nonsense. They might be off their meds.
It’s a strategy. It may be what got North and South Korea talking, in panic and desperation over what the luntic in the White House was doing, and that set the stage Trump and Kim to meet.
In foreign affairs we have some experience with headstrong, self-confident, inexperienced leaders of countries, people with one eye on domestic politics. History sees them as dangerous bumblers. They get their countries into wars.
Americans--Democrats, too--need to be hoping something good happens with North Korea. Unless the outcome is spectacularly bad, Trump will call it victory. Americans appalled by Trump should not begrudge this, although it will rankle. I even hope he gets awarded a Nobel Peace prize. (Democrats need not fear it assures his re-election. Remember Carter brokered a peace between Israel and neighbors. He looked good for a while, and then Reagan swamped him.)
Progress on the Korean Peninsula is worth the few days of Trump celebration. Then it will be back to the usual.
There is a flaw with the “crazy man” strategy. Kim has reason to fear treachery. He thinks he is safe now--safe enough--because he has hostages at gunpoint, which are the only thing keeping the US military planners from assuring Trump they can execute a “surgical strike.” In range of North Korean missiles are American soldiers, South Korean and Japanese allies, Hawaii, and the Wesr Coast of North America. Maybe the East Coast, too. The “Trump is so crazy he might do it” gambit got them talking, but that same gambit makes Trump an unreliable counterparty.
We saw what happened with the Paris accords and the Iran deal. So did Kim.
History teaches us one additional thing: there is no such thing as a surgical strike. Hope for peace.
2 comments:
It's been said that the main fact regarding these events is that it lends credibility to KJU and his regime.
The "optics" are terrible for the United States. It is the equivalent of the POTUS personally sitting in a meeting with ISIS or the Taliban.
If there was any real value to opening a negotiation with NK it would be done by the State Department and would have clearly defined goals and objectives and a "summit" would be to ratify the agreement. It should be noted that the President didn't participate in the Iran Nuclear Agreement, leaving it to the Dept. of State and Sec. John Kerry to ratify the deal.
The first trip accomplished nothing diplomatically by all accounts, except it appears that KJU was encouraged to be shown standing next to the elected leader of our Republic. It elevates KJM and degrades the US, as does Trump's bullying behavior which very likely had more effect domestically politically than on the NK regime.
Well in hindsight it still amazes me that people thought this was going to work out. There are weapons & proliferation experts all over the internet to get insight from. Jeffrey Lewis, Ankit Panda, Vipin Narang et al.. Everyone has been saying this would end up like the proverbial scene in the Godfather. Trump came out of the bathroom, winging it and unprepared 'as usual' with his d___ in his hand.
Post a Comment