Trump is loyal to Trump, not to Republicans

Trump is stabbing Republican leadership in the back.   It is good politics for Trump.

Besides, they don't have a majority that can do anything, and the Democrats do.

Let's make sense of this photo.

Trump was elected because he put together minority of people, in an anti-immigrant, populist revolt against the status quo.  That minority was a majority of Republicans, who generally stuck together under the brand name "Republican" even though the policies being advanced contradicted longstanding Republican policy.  He cobbled together an electoral college coalition of white populists and Hillary-haters and evangelical Christians plus Republican brand loyalists.    Republicans and Republican-leaners are about half of the electorate.

The minority leverages up to create a governing majority under the Republican brand.

But there is a grave problem for Trump. The Republican brand encompasses people with sharply different views.   There is no majority within the Republican caucus on any issue of significance.  He has tried to find it there and cannot.

There is no Republican majority on immigration.   All Republican officeholders know it is safe to condemn Obama and Hillary generally, but there is sharp division on immigration generally and on what actually to do with young children brought here by parents illegally.   Some call them "criminals" and "illegal aliens" but it it difficult to attribute criminal intent to a 4-year-old who came here with parents, and the Republican coalition breaks down over what to do with them.  Some argue that families break up all the time when adults do illegal things.  Be tough and deport non citizens.   Others want some sort of path to something: perhaps citizenship, perhaps something less, permanent residence but not citizenship.

He is a dealmaker, not a Republican

The majority coalition probably exists, if Democrats want it to.  People here illegally will be allowed to stay, but not become citizens and voters.  Each side will call it victory.  Trump will tell his base that he got the important thing: they will always be second class people, voteless and subject to deportation for misbehavior. 

There has been a majority in Congress waiting to congeal, on immigration, on health care, and perhaps on "tax reform".  It is a unified block of Democratic votes, plus the votes of more moderate Republican Senators from blue states who need to tack to the middle to stay in office, plus Republican congressmen from districts which are either blue or which have significant numbers of people who would be hurt by the Republican position on issues.   Some Republicans think mass deportations simply too inhumane   On health care some Republicans will defect to protect people currently getting Medicaid expansion.  On taxes, some will defect to a Democratic tax plan because the Republican version would be too evidently for the benefit of the top earners.

Trump could sell it to Republicans, and he has already set the stage.   He has sharply criticized Republican leadership.   He calls himself a "dealmaker", not a partisan (except on issues of Christian identity and the Courts) and he can call this a successful bipartisan deal.   Trump will sell this as a victory and promises kept.    It will be partially true, arguably true, close enough to true that Trump will call it winning.  He will emphasize the stigmatization of immigrants here illegally, not the fact of their presence.  Trump's appeal was about respect and status and legitimacy for white Americans and a pushback against liberal snobbery.  It was not about absolute numbers of immigrants.  Trump will give his base what they really wanted: validation that the traditional order is in place and respected by the government.

Good politics for Trump

He will have allies.  The establishment media will change memes, calling Trump a surprise who is "growing with the office."  The business community will be happy to get something, anything, on taxes.  Talk radio people who will blame weak GOP congress, not Trump.  Fox will celebrate whatever Trump does, and they can be trusted to help sell the "Trump the dealmaking hero" meme.   Republican strategists and pundits will take comfort in the fact that the immigrants who get to stay won't get to vote Democratic.

What will fight this development?   Breitbart, calling it inadequate.  Republican holdouts with presidential aspirations including Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Cotton, Sasse.   The Republican leadership, which will feel displaced because it will in fact be displaced.   That is the highest risk element for Trump--taking on the Republican establishment--but he did it in the campaign and attacks on the establishment GOP was part of the Trump brand: loyalty to the American people, not the Party establishment.  

Trump thrived by criticizing McConnell and Ryan, and I expect much more of it.