Candidate Watch: Jason Chaffetz

The 2020 Campaign has already begun.

A close look at Jason Chaffetz.  He is running for something.

Let me remind readers that this blog began over two years ago, meaning that in less than two years we will be deep in it again.  I attended my first campaign event for the season, one for Hillary Clinton, in August, 2015.  In September, 2015--two years ago this week--I was in New Hampshire meeting multiple candidates.   

They were all there. The candidates below, and more.   Of course, it seems crazy-early to think about 2020.  But actually it isn't too early.  People are already jostling.  If we are not looking now we are missing something that has already begun.

First, a look back:  

September 17, 2015

September 19, 2015

September 20, 2015

September 23, 2015

September 25, 2015

September 26, 2015

At the time I did not know what to look for in a candidate.  No one did.  The issues that motivated people had not yet begun to jell.   That is the very point of these early observations.   Things that don't seem important usually aren't important.  But some will turn out to be important.   So I tried--and still try--to notice everything.

Back then, Donald Trump was just one of many candidates, but his event that week was the biggest.  His was the only one with a high school band greeting visitors. He had a stemwinder of a introduction from a talk show host.   He had the biggest crowd--about 3,000--compared with crowds for Hillary of 250 and 300.   I noticed the way he did not correct the person who said Obama was a Muslim.  People at the time thought that was an error.  I certainly did.  It wasn't an error.  He wanted people to know he did not mind one bit if Obama was described as a Muslim in his presence.  That wasn't a bug.  It was a feature.  I noticed things but did not know if they were important yet.

I noticed that Hillary stood for 2 hours and 15 minutes.  I did not know that her stamina would become an issue.   

I noticed that Lindsey Graham, whom I had seen on the Sunday shows every week or two for a decade, did not draw a crowd, and I surmised that was important but I did not understand why he drew so little interest.   

At the event with Chris Christie I asked the gathering's only hostile question from the front yard of a local county commissioner, a question about Bridgegate, posited as the sort of question that mean-Hillary would ask of him.  His response was that he hardly knew the people who caused the traffic jam and how could he be expected to know what all 60,000 New Jersey employees were doing.  I guessed right then than the George Washington Bridge closure was going to be a major problem that endured since his answer would never hold up.  Those employees were his closes aides.

I watched Rand Paul with his hands in his pocket at a meet-and-greet and thought he was more of an ideologue than a politician and that this would hurt him.  But I didn't know; it was just a guess.

You don't know what is going to be important.  The effort of this blog was to look closely, be open minded, and be ready to notice things that seem little at the time.  Some will turn out to matter a lot.

We will see more of Chaffetz

Let's look at Jason Chaffetz.

He is a Fellow at the Kennedy School.   He is not just there for a drop-in speech.  He is there for at least a semester.  He has students and teaches regular classes.  I saw him repeatedly, talking with secretaries, getting teacher-administration questions clarified, solving problems with student lists, access to printers, etc.  He has a job there.

This is a nice gig for him.  It positions him to be nice to people who will be useful to him, but more importantly, it will give him stories to tell.  He will be able to describe the snooty condescention of coastal elites from the inside.  It wont be sour grapes of someone on the outside.  

I watched how he interacted.  He is in the middle of an interesting re-positioning of himself.   He is charming and friendly.  He is making useful friends. 

First, some quick background.  He is 50 years old but looks 40.  He was elected to Congress in a very Republican district in Utah in 2008, running to the right of a very conservative 6-term incumbent Republican.  Chaffetz was a newcomer-outsider, though he had been the campaign chairman for John Huntsman's gubernatorial campaign and then his chief of staff. He knew his way around. Chaffetz won over the party delegates, which is how primary elections happen in Utah.

In office Chaffetz quickly moved up becoming head of the House Oversight Committee where he became the scourge of Hillary Clinton, investigating her tirelessly on Benghazi and everything else.  He was a frequent news contributor on Fox and elsewhere.  Upon Trump's victory things changed; he did not want investigations of Trump.

His politics in Congress were uniformly conservative hard right, as libertarian as Rand Paul and as Christian cultural conservative as Ted Cruz.   He had a near-zero rating from environmental groups, he said solar energy was bad for the environment, he opposed gay marriage, he wanted to crush Planned Parenthood, he wanted to end Obamacare.   He openly broke with Trump after the Access Hollywood "pussy grab" exposure but then, prior to the election, said he would vote for him.

He is good looking, has jet black hair, he is well spoken and articulate, and he was considered a rising star.  Then he abruptly quit Congress saying he wanted to spend more time with his family and became a Fox contributor.   He said he did not like being away from home so much, sleeping on a cot in his office.   But there he was at the JFK school, once again 1,500 miles from home.   Strange.

His behavior at the JFK school offers signs that Americans will see much more of him.  I expect him to be a candidate for president in 6 years, and possibly in 2 years.  

He is giving off the signals.

***At a study session I watched him circle the room twice, meeting and shaking hands with the students.  As he went around the second time he remembered which people he had met ten minutes before, and which ones had filed in later.  He wants the human contact.

***He did not use the word "Democrat" as an adjective.  Republicans and Fox News people have a style manual which involves referring to "Democrat legislation" and "Democrat thinking".  Newt Gingrich taught it: mess with the opposition party brand.  Turn the word "Democrat" into a slur.  Chaffetz did not do that.  He said "Democratic."  At Harvard.

***He introduced a visitor to his class: Dan Balz, of the Washington Post.  He did it gracefully and respectfully, saying Balz was a towering figure in journalism.  He is ingratiating.  He is making friends.

***He made two mentions within an hour of his work with Senator Ron Wyden, and his efforts for bipartisan legislation.

Speculation and guesswork, based on bits of behavior and body language (which this blog has consistently argued are, actually, the most important things):   He has a pathway to the White House.:

1.  Avoid loser issues.   His exit from Congress means he can wash his hands of the two-direction stink of health care.  Either Republican officeholders are stuck with failure to repeal and replace, or, worse actually, they are stuck with having created something unpopular.   Chaffetz saw first hand at his Town Meeting that this issue is a loser.   So is investigating Trump or failing to investigate Trump.  Lose-lose.

2.  Stay visible on Fox News, and pick up some Harvard glitter.  He can pick and choose issues, look like an expert, stay on the side of Republican electorate, with tough talk but without tough votes.  After he leaves Harvard he will be in a perfect position to mock it.  He will have stories to tell of liberal arrogance, of the liberal bubble, of the vegan bicyclists multicultural elitists sitting in the classes he taught.   He can tell the stories and roll his eyes in helpless dismay.  This is perfect for him.

3.  Run for Utah governor, or not.  Trump showed that being a TV star is qualification enough.  If he doesn't run for governor he can stay on Fox News.  If he runs and wins the Utah governor race, he has the supposed ideal qualification--Congress plus Governor--the one that John Kaisich has.  Kasich showed that Republican primary voters did not insist on qualifications and experience in government.  They wanted an angry tone and conservative politics plus media celebrity.

Safe Ground on Fox:  Investigate Hillary

4.  Libertarian Moralistic Conservatism.  Run essentially on the platform of Donald Trump on immigration, trade and cultural issues and sound like Ted Cruz on religious issues, but be understood to be nicer than Ted and a fresh face alternative to Trump.  Keep bashing Democrats and liberals on TV but be nice in person.

Chaffetz smiles. He brings waffles to the hosts on Fox and Friends.  Click Here: Resentful, angry, accusatory, outraged.    Chaffetz is perfect for Fox News..  

Click Here: Trump is right. Shut down government.

5. Be a Tea-Party-Acceptable-Non-Trump.  There is an assumption built into this, that Trump personally is exhausting, and people will have had enough.  It is unclear to me if people will want this a lot longer.  People want to be entertained, but they also want "normalcy."   A great many voters will want Trump-ism, but not Trump.  

Watch Chaffetz on Fox.  He is a successor to Trump, the next generation.  He is clean of the multiple issues around Trump: the tweets, the marriages, the emollients, Russia, Trump University, plane rides, Cabinet choices.   He is both Trump and a fresh start. 

Leading the Class

On Fox he is still banging away at Benghazi, media bias, Hillary Clinton's email servers, the visit between Bill Clinton and AG Loretta Lynch, Obama appointees that Trump has not replaced, and the FBI failure to do more investigations of Hillary Clinton, when they instead waste their time in a witch hunt.   This is safe ground.

Is there room for that kind of candidate?  We will see.  He is positioning himself.