There is a idea circulating in the media and around Facebook: Trump is changing his tune on foreign interventions, in Syria and NATO and elsewhere.
This blog said the same thing, in recent posts. Maybe we are wrong.
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| This blog, yesterday. Trump was at a policy fork. |
Video and twitter evidence show Trump saying, adamantly, that Obama should back away from involvement with China. He is on tape saying NATO is obsolete. Some progressive doves voted for him, thinking he was the peace candidate. Doesn't that make Trump inconsistent, and at a political crossroads?
Thad Guyer says no. Guyer says that Trump has been consistently hawkish from the beginning, throughout his campaign, and now.
Guyer has an advantage not taken by most members of the media: he reads this blog. A premise of this blog is that words with their objective denoted meanings are not the primary message in political leadership. Policy and intention is communicated by tone, mood, emotion, and body language, not words.
Guyer has an advantage not taken by most members of the media: he reads this blog. A premise of this blog is that words with their objective denoted meanings are not the primary message in political leadership. Policy and intention is communicated by tone, mood, emotion, and body language, not words.
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| Trump: Stay out of Syria, said angrily. |
The idea has circulated that Trump should be taken seriously, but not literally. I agree wholeheartedly. The underlying premise of that comment is that there is something communicated that is bigger and more important than the actual words. Exactly.
Trump's tone has been utterly consistent. He is tough, brave, inconsistent, flexible, and will not be pushed around by others, either personally or as leader of the USA. He is a bully and proud of it. He is selfish and proud of it. If someone injures him--or America--he will counterpunch hard. That is what Trump is consistent about. He is inconsistent about how to accomplish this--keep NATO or change NATO; back off or bore in; love Russia or confront Russia--but these words are irrelevant. Not inconsistent. Irrelevant.
Trump's tone has been utterly consistent. He is tough, brave, inconsistent, flexible, and will not be pushed around by others, either personally or as leader of the USA. He is a bully and proud of it. He is selfish and proud of it. If someone injures him--or America--he will counterpunch hard. That is what Trump is consistent about. He is inconsistent about how to accomplish this--keep NATO or change NATO; back off or bore in; love Russia or confront Russia--but these words are irrelevant. Not inconsistent. Irrelevant.
Look at the headline in the story above, "Stay the hell out of Syria." The important words are not "stay. . . out of Syria." The important words are "the hell." What we are seeing is anger, bellicosity, willingness to break a rule of civility with a light swear in a public speech.
He was not communicating Syria policy. He was communicating total foreign policy, a whole way of looking at the world and dealing with conflict. He was communicating the big, important thing, a policy of belligerent domination and a demand that things be done his way.
Thad Guyer documents this premise with the following long guest post comment:
“10 Video Clips Showing Media’s in an Alternative Reality on Trump’s Mideast so-called Non-Intervention Promises”
It’s as though something has been put in the water, with the media (left and right) saying that Trump has gone from being against military intervention in the Mideast to now, suddenly, talking about intervention. We’re in a la-la land. Here is a quick collection of 10 video clips I found showing that without doubt, as clear as can be, Trump told (warned) voters he’s a militarist from head to toe, and will not even rule out using tactical nuclear weapons on ISIS in Syria.
These span 18 months, from pre-candidacy, to Republican debates, to Clinton debates. Trump repeatedly states his primary military strategy—remain unpredictable, anything goes, he’ll decide who gets blown up and when. And he’s been unambiguous that he’s a “fast” war hawk, want to use NATO, no nation building, no occupations, no trying to police the world, just attacking adversaries “fast and furious”. He even said that if the generals need to deploy 20 to 30 thousand troops to knock out ISIS, he’ll consider that “to make it fast”. Watch and listen for yourself.
1. Trump (October 2015), “I want to be unpredictable in Syria”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7oz2fBXljc
2. Trump (November 2015) trashes Bush and his ISIS strategy. Citing the need to stop war atrocities, Trump screams: 'We gotta knock the shit outta these people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqSjiupxJ-0&feature=youtu.be
3. Trump (November 2015): “ISIS killing civilians has gotta be stopped, and I’m going to bomb the shit out of them”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OES7kbWZ70Y
4. Trump (January 2016): “Going to knock the shit out of ISIS and will happen fast”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHOaNdHkXs8&feature=youtu.be
5. Trump (February 2016): “The global warming we need to worry about is from nuclear weapons” launched by North Korean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWD4wmTTbR8
6. Trump (March 2016) won’t rule out tactical nuclear weapons against ISIS, “we need unpredictability”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSnVb4i_ZZ4
7. Trump (March 2016) Republican debate: “I would listen to the generals, but I would - I'm hearing numbers of 20 to 30,000 [US troops]. We have to knock them out fast”.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/trump-iraq-syria-220608
8. Trump (September 9, 2016): Invoking generals Patton and MacArthur, “don’t announce military strategy” and “never say we won’t put boots on the ground, let ISIS think its going to go through hell”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyRc7jaKfiI&feature=youtu.be
9. Trump (September 26, 2016) at 2rd debate: “We have to get NATO to go into the middle east with us and knock the hell out of ISIS.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ5DZmg5_zg&feature=youtu.be
10. Trump at debate (October 10, 2016): “I’m going to defeat ISIS, and knock the hell out of them”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrRIiwkbWPs&feature=youtu.be
1. Trump (October 2015), “I want to be unpredictable in Syria”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7oz2fBXljc
2. Trump (November 2015) trashes Bush and his ISIS strategy. Citing the need to stop war atrocities, Trump screams: 'We gotta knock the shit outta these people!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqSjiupxJ-0&feature=youtu.be
3. Trump (November 2015): “ISIS killing civilians has gotta be stopped, and I’m going to bomb the shit out of them”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OES7kbWZ70Y
4. Trump (January 2016): “Going to knock the shit out of ISIS and will happen fast”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHOaNdHkXs8&feature=youtu.be
5. Trump (February 2016): “The global warming we need to worry about is from nuclear weapons” launched by North Korean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWD4wmTTbR8
6. Trump (March 2016) won’t rule out tactical nuclear weapons against ISIS, “we need unpredictability”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSnVb4i_ZZ4
7. Trump (March 2016) Republican debate: “I would listen to the generals, but I would - I'm hearing numbers of 20 to 30,000 [US troops]. We have to knock them out fast”.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/trump-iraq-syria-220608
8. Trump (September 9, 2016): Invoking generals Patton and MacArthur, “don’t announce military strategy” and “never say we won’t put boots on the ground, let ISIS think its going to go through hell”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyRc7jaKfiI&feature=youtu.be
9. Trump (September 26, 2016) at 2rd debate: “We have to get NATO to go into the middle east with us and knock the hell out of ISIS.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ5DZmg5_zg&feature=youtu.be
10. Trump at debate (October 10, 2016): “I’m going to defeat ISIS, and knock the hell out of them”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrRIiwkbWPs&feature=youtu.be
2 comments:
The question is, how would the Russians respond? Would they just denounce that kind of action, or would they send in planes to duke it out with us?
Yes, Trump has a big mouth and pandered to the crowds, but national interest, and rationality in the Pentagon will temper any actual military adventures, (one hopes). The Syria strike, 59 missiles, was done on counsel with the military, though it seems to me for the point of sending a message one Tomahawk would have done just as well and saved some money. One wonders what options were considered...what had been gamed out for this eventuality?
So Exxon is sent home with a scolding and Russia punctuates it with a UN veto. So much for winning, though I doubt the message is lost on Trump supporters. Meanwhile, Congress waves their little flags and breathes a sigh of relief. We responded to the outrage and shook our finger at Assad, who now knows what the West will do little to intervene and will continue as before.
The West is not going to go to war with Russia over Syria. Exxon's oil deal and Trump's indebtedness are making accommodation in the national interest and will drive their actions, however narrow that may be. Russia may very well be able to bankrupt Trump and while it's probably a threat that they aren't eager to carry out it seems sufficient to give them influence over him, and it also appears that Exxon, who must know this, is willing to go along.
Time is playing a big role in all this. Exxon needs the revenue and soon to keep the stock price up. Russia's economy is tanking and unrest is growing. Trump is under pressure to lift sanctions or face financial ruin. Of course, this is all speculation but those of us on the sidelines have little else to do but try to make sense out of fog and shadows.
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