Greg Walden Sabotaged--by his Friends

Greg Walden is being stabbed in the back.   He may not even realize it.  He will soon.

Republicans are making a big mistake, but like lots of mistakes it feels good in the moment and the problems don't show up until later.    

People are suckers for praise.  

There is a lot of action in the political world.  Trump is making news in multiple directions.  Grass roots individuals and groups are organizing and protesting, showing up at Republican Town Meetings.  House members are scrambling,  Michael Flynn is resigning, Senators are confirming Cabinet positions, Fox News is saying the opposition to Trump are all paid phonies, late night comedians are lampooning Sean Spicer and Kellyanne Conway.  Situation normal, same old, same old.

From the Ad: Dems did not keep promises.  

Amidst this noise there is one big mistake underway.   Republican interest groups are trying to raise the pressure on vulnerable Democrats in the House by bashing Obamacare and praising the Republican plan to fix health care.  They have plenty of money so they are helping out safe-seat Republican by running the ads nationally and in the districts of powerful committee chairs like Greg Walden.

Prepare to be thrilled, like these people.

They are well produced and heartwarming.   The ad link I show here is one immediately available via YouTube and it is for a Republican colleague of Greg Walden. (I cannot find a YouTube version of the one on local TV.) In Greg's District his name and face are inserted instead of Rep. Barbara Comstock's.

Click to Watch: 30 Seconds, Call to thank Greg Walden


It is a beautiful ad.   Everyone likes being thanked.  We let our guard down.

Meanwhile, they are running yet another, related ad--also supportive and beautiful and uplifting--with the same arc of Big Problem, then Republican action, then Happy Solution.   Sad to joy in just 29 seconds, thank the Republicans.  We will get just what the public wants and expects: "patient centered health care."  Click to Watch: 30 Seconds, Patient Centered Health Care

See how happy they will be.

These ads must feel very welcome to a Republican House Member, even one in a presumably safe District.  After all, he or she is getting relentless criticism from noisy opponents at Town Meetings and this ad assures people that he or she is working on fixing things, to wait, be patient, and that everything will be great.

It gives support and breathing room, right?  

This is a trap.  Republicans are taking the bait.

The ad is setting up expectations that cannot be met.  The ad is guaranteeing that Walden will be shown to have failed once the reality of what is actually possible sets in.  

Any realistic outcome will be complicated and will cost trillions and there will be some confused winners and some motivated losers.  There will be long articles on the various tradeoffs.  It will not be all smiles.  Of course Democrats will be unhappy--that is a given.  But there will be Republican dissent and there will be gaps, abuses, loopholes, and horror stories.  Someones ox will be gored.

Headline today, Feb 14, 2017

Republicans--especially the House Republican caucus--have given all Americans plenty of reason to question whether they can govern.  They were too much for Boehner, they are a handful for Ryan, and now they have to do the impossible: create a health care system that is simple, inexpensive, and really good, as promised by Trump and repeated by their own team mates, and now by these ads. 

Trump: leaning away

That is why a Democratic candidate should rejoice these Republican ads are running in Walden's district.  The Democrat should pay to run these ads if for some reason Republicans stopped running them.  Walden's friends are making the very point the Democrat would spend time and money to make, and it is far more persuasive when Walden makes it himself:  Walden is in charge.  Call and thank him for making us smile.

A father who promises his child a pony for Christmas and has his 8-year-old picking out saddles had better not put a chapter-book about ponies under the tree and say this is what he meant.    

This blog has received five times the usual number of readers beginning when it raised the possibility of Walden being vulnerable to a general election loss, with readership moving from about 400-500 a day up to about 2,500 a day.   Apparently there is some interest.  

Data-oriented Democrats note that the voter registration shows way more Republicans than Democrats, some 188,000 vs. 142,000.   There are also 143,000 non-affiliated voters.  Are a majority of them available to the right Democratic candidate?   The data-oriented commenters said "no", unless one of two conditions were met.   One is that 2018 is a "wave election" with a big tide of voters rejecting a governing party.  The second is that Representative Walden becomes a symbol of promises unkept and legislative failure.

On the Hot Seat, made even hotter

That is why the ads are a spectacular gift to Democrats.  Republicans are painting the target.

If Republicans bring us a Replacement that is simple, inexpensive, universal and with better quality care then Greg Walden will be just fine, even if it is a wave election.   

Greg Walden isn't being thanked.  He is being set up.