GOP Escape plan: Keep Obamacare

Danger ahead for Democrats.   Town Hall protests saying "Save the ACA" might succeed.   

Democrats should quit talking about saving Obamacare.  They should start demanding that Trumpcare be really, really good.

Greg Walden may have a way out of his mess.  Fail big.  Then blame Democrats.

Republicans have already figured out that they cannot govern.  They will not replace Obamacare with anything, much less "something terrific."  They are already shifting the message.

It is still Trix

The GOP strategy on Obamacare was politically perfect.  They unanimously opposed it but it got passed over their objections.  They refused to allow fixes to the drafting errors and problems that emerged when Obamacare went into effect, which made its operation more clunky than necessary.  The worse it worked and the more people who were unhappy, the better.  The strategy worked and they won big: House, Senate, White House.  

They said they would replace it with "something terrific" which needs to be worked out, just wait and trust us.  Meanwhile, they have clunky Obamacare to complain about.  It does not get any better than that.

Same but better.

But there is a big problem: They promised to repeal and replace Obamacare.  

In fact Obamacare solves some genuine problems in the health care payment system.  Greg Walden, Chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, knows there is no policy or legislative solution.  This blog has suggested this will be a big problem because will have failed miserably and publicly at his job.  But maybe not.

Walden has an escape hatch.  Fail, but fail smart.  

Don't repeal and replace Obamacare. 

Be careful what you wish for

The ideal political messaging is for Republicans to keep Obamacare, keep it working badly, and blame Democrats   

They can make halfhearted efforts to fix one or two items that can get through the House and Senate, then claim that they fixed the worst of it.   They will have something to show.  They can say they improved it. They may get Democratic votes, thus demonstrating they can govern.  

Key to the strategy is keeping the name Obamacare and claiming that the Democrats won't let them create the "something terrific" they wanted to give Americans.    Keep running against "Obamacare."

Republicans need to appear helpless.   Donald Trump won't like this but perhaps Congressional leadership will explain that either Trump will be blamed or Democrats will be blamed.  Trump will choose Democrats.

Falling into the GOP trap

Wouldn't Republicans be letting down the people who voted for them and who expect Republicans to create something better?  Yes.  It will not matter.

Republicans are comfortable being a party of objection, not a party of governance.  GOP voters do not want or expect government to work.  Indeed, they expect it not to work.  A successful health care replacement would be contrary to the GOP brand, and in any case it is impossible for Republicans to implement.

Democrats are poised to fall into the political trap of looking like they are winning by keeping the Obamacare/ACA brand.   People at the rallies and Democratic incumbents may consider it a victory if Obamacare is "saved."  I can imagine Chuck Schumer on television saying that Democrats united with grass roots protesters saved the ACA.  Democrats will like seeing this.  It would be a grave error. 

New strategy

It is the GOP's turn at bat.  They want to break Obamacare and replace it.   Democrats should let them.  

The worst outcome for Democrats is for Republicans to fail at replacing Obamacare and for Democrats to be blamed for the ongoing mess.  Democrats need to lose in order to win.   The new health care system should be Trumpcare.

Keep Obamacare, blame Democrats

Democrats need to make clear to the public that Obamacare's future has been handed over to the Republicans.  Democrats won't want to do that, but it is the reality of the GOP majorities in the House and Senate and presidency.  President Trump is already messaging that he "inherited a mess" and Republicans, guided by their message guru Frank Luntz, are starting to get clarity on what they need to do: claim they are fixing Obamacare, not repealing or replacing it.  

Republicans are figuring out they need to make a political virtue out of their broken promise and their inability to govern.  Keep the Obamacare brand to run against.  Do essentially nothing, which is all that can pass anyway.  In branding, emphasize the improved, not the new.

Waldon talking point:  "fix it."

Republicans have a plan: fail and blame Democrats.

Democrats have plan: resist Trump.  They can resist him but they must simultaneously make clear that Trump is the guy carrying the ball and that any mess that emerges is his mess. That is the trap Trump will fall into.  Democrats have not yet gotten clear that Trump's grandiloquence and brand as the change agent is their best asset.  Let Trump claim credit for being in charge.   Then the mess his his.  

For Democrats, the upcoming new, improved health care isn't Obamacare.  It is Trumpcare.  

Democrats need to stop trying to save the ACA and start demanding that Trumpcare be really, really good.  If it is, then Trump deserves to win.  But it won't be good.