Debate Scorecard

Ever watched a flock of swallows or sparrows fly together in undulating swarms?  

Amazing!

Somehow they are communicating with one another, moving as a group.   I have no idea how they do it.   Humans do it, too--attach and communicate non verbally.

Even rational people who pay attention to issues, who think they are logical, strategic, detail-oriented, even number-crunching engineers,  operate partially as social animals with herd instincts. 

Here is my point about the campaign.    I think yesterday's Republican debate, and the Trump boycott of it, were important pieces of big, non-verbal communication, confirming and modifying the basic understanding people have of the candidates.   Voters' impressions were affected.  

Here's what happened last night:

Trump:   He confirmed his brand.   He won't get pushed around and he stands his ground.  He is a little bit un-trustworthy because it is pretty obvious that he was motivated partially by thin-skinned pique, not principle.    But the big message is clear and generally it confirms what people like about Trump: cross him and he makes you pay.  And he can feel "crossed" by little things, personal things.   So watch out.   People can imagine how he would deal with China, Russia, Democrats, Republicans, regulatory agencies.   Trump would be forceful and bold and insofar as his enemies are America's enemies, they had better give him what he wants. 

Defend Orthodoxy

Cruz and Rubio:   They confirmed that they are smart, verbally adept, and that they changed their minds on immigration/citizenship and that they think these little distinctions are important.   They confirmed they are smart and competent, but they are mere legislators who fight over little points.   This makes them OK as plan B.

Bush:  Bush modified his image.  It is probably too late for him but he made a virtue out of the debate that Cruz and Rubio are having, converting Bush into a genuine alternative to them.   While Cruz and Rubio tried to insist that they are pure and steadfast in opposing citizenship for immigrants Bush said just the opposite, without apology.   And that is the point: he said, without weakness or apology, that their original plan to include immigrants was actually OK.    Bush is making the same argument as Hillary, that progress is hard in the real world of politics and competing interests.  It involves bipartisan compromise.  Bush wasn't weak.  He said something likely unpopular and stood by it.  Republicans many not want a grownup, but Bush now, finally, sounds like one.   

Previous Megan Kelly

Fox News:  They confirmed they are the orthodox Republican news outlet.  Their press release teasing Trump showed they were willing to fight to remain the centerpiece of Republican opinion, punishing heretics who would challenge the Catholic orthodoxy of Pope Roger Ailes.  They defended their brand at the risk of the pretense of journalistic impartiality.   But their brand is not impartiality, it is Republicanism, so they did what they needed to do.   Trump may need to kneel in the snow for 3 days to come back into the fold.

Megyn Kelly:   She modified her image.    She cut her hair.   She went from news kitten to news assassin.  She used "Daily Show" type presentation of video archives to trap Cruz and Rubio in their hypocrisy   exposing their own past with their own faces and words.  Since Cruz and Rubio themselves have defined switching positions as anathema, they are trapped by their own definitions.   This gave Bush the opportunity to say that they were right in the first place and should not have "cut and run."   By showing the past videos rather than using her own voice to quote Cruz and Rubio she looked like a tough journalist with facts on her side rather than the mean spirited personal accuser she appeared to be in the first Fox debate, when she described past behavior in her own voice.   Megan Kelly was the big winner on Thursday.

The New Megan Kelly

Underneath all the policy talk it is my view that voters prefer or oppose candidates based on the simple communication that is as invisible but powerful as whatever attaches birds to a flock.  It isn't the detail, it is the simple impression, the tone and manner and look they present.  You like it or you don't, and you don't get talked out of it easily.

Trump:   Wont get pushed around

Cruz:      Competent strong uncompromising mean-looking Senator

Rubio:    Competent handsome young Senator

Bush:     Competent earnest establishment Bush

Fox:       Orthodox Republican Institution

Megyn:  Actually a journalist