Thursday, January 7, 2016

Ads they see in Primary States

Oregon is "flyover country" when it comes to political ads.   No need to bother here.

When I watch TV is see ads for Ed's Tire Factory and Food For Less, two Medford merchants.   But when I arrive in Charleston, SC next week I will see very different TV, just as I saw very different TV in New Hampshire.

I saw for myself in New Hampshire big media buys for Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.   Hillary presented herself as a fighter for the Forgotten Middle Class.  Jeb positioned himself as really competent and responsible.

In the primary states viewers see hard-hitting ads by the Super Pacs, with the most interesting being among the second tier (i.e. non-Trump) candidates jockeying to be the last  candidate standing as alternative to Trump.   The strategy makes perfect sense.   The only problem is  that there will be one winner and many losers.

So, Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich, and Cruz are all attacking each other through their Super Pacs, hoping to be that survivor.     

This is just a sample of what TV commercials are like in the early primary states.  But they outline what Republicans think are the big vulnerabilities:   Rubio's vulnerability is whether he is fully present and had considered compromise on immigration.  Cruz's is that he is not fully on board in domestic surveillance to stop terror, for privacy reasons.  Christie's is that he had compromised with Obama and other Democrats on Medicaid expansion, common core, plus he got cooties from hugging Obama.  Bush has been damaged by Trump for being "weak"  already but Rubio piles on by showing him to be a hypocrite.

Rubio

Rubio attacks Cruz.  Rubio positions himself as a better hawk, willing to use more intrusive surveillance of phone calls on questionable Americans--which Cruz considers too intrusive, an actual policy difference.   
Rubio Responds to Cruz
Rubio attacks Bush.  Rubio attacks Bush for being desperate and hypocritical in criticizing Rubio now, with recent quotations of Bush praising Rubio.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf_xHVKvIEw


Rubio attacks Christie.   The general theme is that Christie is a moderate who has compromised with Democrats on Common Core, Obamacare, and once said something nice about Obama.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/429213/marco-rubio-attacks-chris-christie-video

Bush

Bush attacks Rubio
Bush attacks Rubio.   The theme is missing hearings and votes i the Senate when security business was being discussed.   
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeb-bush-marco-rubio-super-pac-ad-2015-12




Bush attacks everyone, starting with Trump


Bush attacks Trump, Cruz, and Rubio (Trump for being impulsive, Cruz for weakening domestic surveillance, and Rubio for missing votes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKmz5uoui9E




Cruz attack on Rubio

Cruz

Cruz attacks Rubio.  A Cruz PAC positions Cruz as strong on defense while Rubio is busy filling out a Fantasy Football entry.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU9pAxbHHGY

Cruz attacks Republican Establishment and Rubio on immigration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW38URo-A2Q  
                         also
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-SC1uUiT9s

Christie

Christie hits back
Christie the "Only" Candidate who has prosecuted terrorists
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0n--vIVBwQ

Christie attacks Hillary telling Republicans to stop attacking him
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hliKwBIy94w



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