Monday, October 7, 2019

Trump Defense: Biden Corruption

If American politics is mostly clean and honorable, then the issue is Trump corruption.


If American politics is mostly corrupt, then the issue is whose side is Trump on.


Trump's defense against impeachment is that Biden is corrupt and Democrats and the media are lying about it.

Fareed Zakaria's one hour news show on CNN on Sunday detailed the case against Trump. He held up delivery of military aid to Ukraine as inducement for Ukraine to target Joe Biden in an investigation, a plan that involved himself, AG William Barr, his personal attorney Giuliani, his Ambassadors, and career civil service employees. Zakaria's show also reported that the case against Biden was demonstrably false. The Ukrainian prosecutor the Obama administration (and the rest of the world) wanted fired was notoriously and flagrantly corrupt, and was failing to investigate and prosecute misdeeds.
Click: Look at Biden

Zakaria's GPS Global Public Square show is serious news, and the story was long and complicated.

An ad came on, 40 minutes into the show. It was short, direct and easy to understand, with a simple alternative truth. Biden was the bad guy, supporting Ukraine corruption.  

It is part of a ten million dollar ad blitz.

The ads outline the simple narrative that constitutes the Trump defense against impeachment.

1. Washington is corrupt, especially Joe Biden. Look at Biden. Don't try to pretend that Trump is breaking any nice, delicate rules. The whole of Washington is a swamp. Biden!

Click: "Coup"

2. The Democrats are sore losers and are trying to steal the election from you. "Democrats are trying to undo the election, regardless of facts."

3. It takes a tough, rule- breaking, unconventional non politician like Trump to fight the corrupt, swampy Democrats. Sure, Trump plays a little dirty because it is a dirty business, but it is for a good cause, you.




Danger ahead: a warning for Democrats. 

Click below to continue:

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Fortress Trump is Fraying

Trump calls out GOP apostasy. Circle the wagons. Shoot deserters. 


Trump tweet:  
    "The Democrats are lucky they don't have any Mitt Romney types. They may be lousy politicians with really bad policies (Open Borders, Sanctuary Cities, etc.) but they stick together!"

Trump is making an example of Mitt Romney. Don't stray, or else.

Trump is not just a political actor. He is leading a big team, unified in large part by what they oppose: taxes, open borders, uncontrolled immigration, liberals, socialists, woke feminists, media elites, political correctness, and people who call them "racist." 

He is sending out an unmistakable message to Republicans troubled by the recent news: stay on the team.

Any GOP officeholder who hopes to have a continuing career in office--or lobbying career after office--can see what happens to deserters. Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake spoke out. Trump attacked. They slunk out of the Senate, knowing they could not win a Republican primary.

Congressman Mark Sanford spoke out. Trump endorsed his opponent, Sanford lost, and Trump gloated. Now Sanford is running for president, Trump brings up Sanford's 2009 affair, and mocks him as one of the Three Stooges.

Lindsay Graham got the message. He faced a dangerous primary. GOP activists in South Carolina whispered to me that Graham was a secret homosexual, my heaven's sake! Graham switched. He is all-Trump all the time.

Trump tweet
Now Mitt Romney. Romney is a particularly dangerous one for Trump. Romney represents the straight-arrow version of GOP, someone in the Mike Pence, John Kasich mold. Pious. Protestant. A presumed alternative to libertine Democrats with their modern secularism. 

As a Senator from Utah, not up for election for four years he is electorally safe. Utah Republicans are uncomfortable with Trump. Romney fits Utah.

Trump understands the threat. He doesn't just disagree with Romney, he mocks mocks him. He came hat in hand begging me to be Secretary of State, Trump says. I rejected him, the so now he's bitter, the phony! Romney choked! Romney is a loser!

Romney is unusually dangerous for Trump, and would be the single most dangerous Republican to the Trump fortress. Nearly all Republican officeholders voted for Romney and publicly supported him. Romney represents the pre-Trump version of the GOP, a version of GOP that brought most officeholders to power. The Tea Party Freedom Caucus populist newcomers are associated with Trump disruption. The conservative disposition is usually against disruption. 

Romney represents a return to "normalcy." He is a known, formerly respectable, alternative brand.

Romney alone will not topple Trump, but he could start a cascade. If a second and third person speaks up--Republican Senators Susan Collins and Cory Gardner, perhaps, combined with one visible opinion host on Fox--the dam could break.

Trump may well have described him correctly, as someone who doesn't work quite hard enough, and as someone who chokes. In that case, he will mumble about being "troubled" but do nothing more.

But he might speak out and be the pebble that starts the landslide.





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Saturday, October 5, 2019

Democratic Senate Takeover: Possible and Difficult

     "The factor that poses the greater challenge for Democrats is that the President will almost certainly be running for re-election."

      Political Scientist Peter Lemieux


Twenty three senate Republicans are up for election.

Fox website today

Donald Trump doesn't appear to be in trouble with Republicans. For now, Fox News and Talk Radio have Trump's back. Trump partisans hear a clear, strident message:
   Democratic sore losers.
   Witch hunt.
   Collusion? Of course, for a good cause!
   No quid pro quo.
   What about Biden?  
   And Hillary? 
   And Obama

In this media context where Trump voters hear a unified message of Trump's innocence and victimhood, conviction in the Senate is nearly impossible. 

A more plausible question is whether a 2020 election would allow Democrats to get the 4 extra seats necessary to gain a majority--or 3 plus the Vice President if they win the White House. They are in Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, and Arizona, states that were nearly dead-even in the 2016 presidential race, and tougher races in Montana, Texas, and Iowa. A small percentage point move could be dispositive.

Peter Lemieux is a numbers-oriented political scientist in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He is a college classmate; the founder and principal at Cyways, an internet consultancy; a lecturer at MIT (where he got his Ph.D.) He shares some of his political insights at his blog http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org   He writes that Donald Trump will likely have coattails. 

Lemieux
My Democratic readers will have a hard time believing and integrating this, but a great many voters support Trump. GOP voters may not exactly like and admire Trump, but they consider him to be on their side, fighting socialists, liberals, abortion, liberal courts, overly-woke feminists, affirmative action, uncontrolled immigration, and sharia law taking over America. Democrats may consider this ridiculous or racist, which is yet another reason why Trump succeeds, because many Republican voters resent being thought ridiculous and racist for thinking the things they think.

And the economy? I consider it very fragile and possibly headed to recession, but likely not in time to rescue Democrats. We will see.


Guest Post by Peter Lemieux 

I don't expect the Senate to convict Trump, but I would like to see a number of the Republican Senators up for re-election in 2020 be put in the uncomfortable position of defending him.  Flipping four seats would give the Democrats the majority in the Senate; flipping three seats and winning the Presidency accomplishes the same result.

How likely is a Democratic victory?  My little model of Senate elections identifies a handful of factors that influence the national popular vote for Senate.  One advantage for the Democrats is that the crop of Senators who won in 2014 is lopsidedly Republican.  Twenty-three Republicans won election that year compared to just thirteen Democrats, and the Republicans won a majority of the national popular vote for Senate.  The concept of "regression toward the mean" applies in Senate elections -- a Senate "class" that does well in one election does less well six years later. That might cost the Republicans a couple of percentage points next November.

The factor that poses the greatest challenge for Democrats is that the President will almost certainly be running for re-election.  In years the President is on the ticket his co-partisans in the Senate have won some four percent more of the popular vote than in years where the President is not running.  This is a substantial advantage, though it remains to be seen whether Trump is as great a positive influence as Presidents have been historically.

The other significant factor is the state of the economy.  I rely on changes in real disposable income per capita as a summary measure. Right now that figure is about 2.3%, or pretty close to the postwar average.  If the warning signs about the economy prove prescient, a weaker economy could hurt the Republicans chances in next fall's Senate election.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2016/02/01/a-simple-model-of-senate-elections/

For those wondering about the influence of presidential approval, I find that matters only in off-year elections.

Four points matter

The impeachment and resignation of Richard Nixon had a massive negative effect on support for Republican senators in 1976.  All three of the factors I mention above pointed in the Republicans favor:  the Democrats had won a substantial majority of the vote in the anti-war election of 1970; President Ford was running for re-election; and, the economy was doing reasonably well.  Yet the Democrats won over 56% of the popular vote for Senate that year, a result outside the bounds of statistical error.  Watergate seems the most likely explanation for the 1976 outcome.

https://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2018/04/23/the-strange-case-of-1976/


              ---   ---   ---



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Friday, October 4, 2019

The Purloined Collusion


Trump has a strategy. Hide in plain sight. 



Trump campaigning: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you will find the 30,000 emails that are missing."

Trump to Stephanopolis: "This is somebody that said 'We have information on your opponent.' Oh, let me call the FBI. Give me a break. Life doesn't work that way."

Trump to Ukraine: "I would like you to do us a favor though."


In Edgar Allen Poe's story "The Purloined Letter" the object that was sought was placed openly on a desk. Since the searcher's assumption was that the hidden letter would be well hidden, they ignored it. 

It was hidden in plain sight.

Richard Nixon left office because of a frame of reference. Democrats, Republicans, and Nixon all agreed that it was morally and legally wrong for a president to use the power of the office to obstruct an investigation of a crime by falsely telling the FBI that this was in fact a secret CIA operation and they should not investigate it.

Nixon did that and hid it. When that truth was revealed, he was done. He knew, and his actions demonstrated, that what he was doing was both wrong and important--a basis for impeachment.

Trump has changed the frame. In the Russia probe he claimed "No collusion, no collusion, total exoneration." The issue there was whether there was unmistakable proof he intentionally coordinated with Russia to influence the 2016 election. 

But now, in the face of strong evidence of collusion with Ukraine, Trump says of course. Collusion is in plain sight, which means the issue simply must be something else, and Trump supplies it: did Hunter Biden, and therefore Joe Biden, do anything wrong, maybe, possibly.

Trump does not need an answer, only an arguable basis for there to be a question, and there can always be questions, especially from people who refuse to accept any answer.

The power of shamelessness. Donald Trump has an astonishing ability to be non-self-reflective, and his partisans want desperately for him to be guiltless, so they accept his story. He seems so confident.

Trump apparently feels no need to be consistent. He criticized Obama for golfing, then golfs many times more. He criticized deficits, then raises them. He says Mexico will pay for a wall, then he does it. He says 'no collusion' then says of course he colludes, with Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and now China, openly, proudly, so it cannot be a crime or impeachable offense. Otherwise he would have been embarrassed, right?

He put the smoking gun on display, so the issue at hand simply must be something else. Hunter Biden.



Thursday, October 3, 2019

Whistleblower story is getting complicated.

     "The case docket of national security whistleblower lawyers like me have been against the FBI, CIA, NSA, and intelligence agency contractors for lying, setting up the innocent, domestic spying, etc.  Only in the age of Trump and Democratic resentment could those agencies now be the heroes, authors and celebrated pundits.  It is obscene."

               Thad Guyer, Whistleblower Attorney


Democrats and much of the media jumped on the hero whistleblower bandwagon. The story was messy from the beginning, with Trump pointing at "Crooked Biden." 

Congress may end up looking crooked, too. This could backfire. 

Whistleblowing can be professional suicide for the whistleblower, but it puts into danger everyone associated with that whistleblower. Institutions under attack look at every possible basis for undermining the motives and credibility of the whistleblower.

Trump was blasting Adam Schiff from the start. "Pencil neck." "Traitor." This morning the Fox and Friends hosts are grinning; the Fox website headlines "Shaft from Schiff?" If Schiff is tarnished it tarnishes the overall impeachment effort.

To do whistleblowing right, one needs to be clean as a whistle.

Today, we add a perspective from whistleblower expert, Thad Guyer. Attorney Thad Guyer specializes on litigation on behalf of employee whistleblowers. A big part of his practice is representing federal employees, many of which he does on behalf of GAP, the Government Accountability Project, a national program promoting corporate and government accountability by protecting whistleblowers. Others he does independently at T M Guyer and Ayers & Friends, PC Click: http://www.guyerayers.com


Guyer

Guest Post by Thad Guyer


The more we hear about the Ukraine whistleblower complaint, the more tarnished it looks.  First, Mark Zaid, the whistleblower's lawyer, says 60 Minutes has put out fake news about his client "needing protection".  Click 

Second, Tom Devine, a founder of GAP, who has participated in litigating over a thousand whistleblower cases, has chastised Congress over the flagrant outing of the whistleblower, and defended Trump's security chief for actually handling the case correctly.  Click: On the Media.  

Third, the New York Times has set off a new firestorm in reporting that Shifty Schiff, staff had undisclosed contacts with the deep state whistleblower before he and Zaid filed any whistleblower complaint, this apparently contradicting Schiff's prior answer that he had nothing to do with whistleblower complaint and read about when everyone else did. See below.
Click: NY Times today
The reason Zaid, Devine and I and other whistleblower lawyers are critical of Shifty Schiff in this is that it is another instance of our clients explicitly using confidential/anonymous channels to make disclosures and otherwise not mess up their careers. This whistleblower's career is now over. This is exactly what Diane Feinstein (or her staff) did to Blasey Ford (and my friend and fellow whistleblower attorney Debra Katz)-- they breached confidentiality and outed her to use as political fodder, and really wrecked her life. Yes, once outed, then our clients have to fight for their professional lives and that has the bitter-sweet success for their lawyers like Mark and Debbie and Tom. 

But all of us now are cautioning our clients that they cannot trust Congress in the age of Trump-hate to honor their word, because politicians will make sure a leak happens.

Politically of course, the impeachment based on Trump's Ukraine call is already dead, and will drag Democrats to the bottom of the swamp. If you want to impeach Trump after Mueller gave him a pass without findings of fact of criminality of any kind, then you better be very clean yourself, Sam Erwin kind of clean, or else you are going to be killed in the airstrike you called in on your enemy.  

Trump has only just begun to win this one big time.

Yuk.


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Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Bedrock Values of Progressives and Conservatives

"Government is here to help a people thrive."  

"No, government is here to protect our freedom."



Citizens who talk with neighbors confront the simple fact that Americans disagree with each other on fundamental values.


Just what are those differences?


Today's post is a Guest Post by Rod Kessler. He is a college classmate. He taught English at Salem State University in Massachusetts for 31 years. He recently served as a delegate to the Massachusetts Democratic Convention. His own politics are progressive.

Rod Kessler
He has tried to make sense and put into words his observations gained on the doorsteps of neighbors while he canvassed for a local issue. His conclusion wasn't that the people who disagreed with him were simply infected by Fox News. Nor was the difference ethnic or political tribalism. Nor is it differing responses to the archetype characters, personalities, and body language that this blog says animates political leadership.

He wrote up what he thought were the bedrock differencesL a matter of principle, differing conceptions of the role of government.


Guest Post by Rod Kessler


"Getting Down to Bedrock"


I am a progressive, but I think I understand that deep down we are different from conservatives.  

What progressives believe deep down:

            
The Individual and Society
When functioning well, the community promotes the greater good of everyone. We’re in the same boat, and by contributing together we improve everyone’s common lot. If someone else needs a leg up, we as a community must lend a hand; should we need a leg up, we look to the community for help. 

Government
The government, essentially, is “us,” not “them,” and we trust it to take care of us.  It is the instrument by which the community promotes the greater good.  Understanding that regulations are in fact protections, we look to government to maintain the infrastructure and ensure public safety, to protect the environment, to safeguard foods and medicines. Government is the community’s tool for achieving the public good.

The Market
If capitalism is a powerful mechanism for organizing the community’s economic life, unregulated capitalism inevitably leads to dysfunctional levels of inequality, to social injustice, and ultimately to political unrest. The marketplace needs regulations that limit the monopolistic amassing of resources and allow for sufficient redistribution of wealth to maintain social well-being—to preserve a middle class, for example. 

What the conservatives believe deep down:

The Individual and Society
Whether we’re born into the world in better or worse situations, each has the potential to achieve and prosper, and, ideally, society promotes our doing so by not placing obstacles in the way. One’s fate, then, will be in one’s own hands—and so will others’ fates be in their own hands. Naturally, those with strong charitable feelings could choose to lend a hand to the needy, but doing risks undermining recipients’ work ethic.

Government
We need enough government to maintain civil order, protect our borders, and help keep the world safe for the operation of free markets. We need a strong army and effective laws—and law enforcement—to protect property and the day-to-day functioning of personal and commercial life.

Government oversteps its role when it interferes with the individual’s freedom to achieve and prosper. There’s the risk in democratic societies that the majority will impinge on the rights of that much smaller group whose success has produced wealth and productivity. So-called “entitlements” such as social security, universal health care, welfare, food stamps, are ways that the undeserving numerical majority seeks handouts from the successful. Beware government’s tendency to grow too big and corrupt. 

The Market
A freely functioning market is good because competition is good. There are risks to markets. First, cronyism, when personal connections pick winners and losers. Then there’s governmental interference—laws going back to the trust-busting days of Teddy Roosevelt that hobble players in the competition. The freely functioning market can usually weed out destructive practices and products.

Progressives and Conservatives talk past each other.

Progressives and conservatives see issues differently because of deep-down assumptions. To progressives, the right wing’s attacks on healthcare-for-all sound like heartless selfishness. Aren't we supposed to help each other? To conservatives, progressive efforts to promote social justice through affirmative action sound just plain unfair. Shouldn't ability and hard work be rewarded without a thumb on the scale?  What is cooperation and community to a progressive seems like dependency and robbery to a conservative. What is freedom and fair competition to a conservative seems like cruelty to a progressive.





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Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Trump polling in California gets even worse


Trump is losing by more than 2 to 1 in California. Things were bad, and they are getting worse for him.


He doesn't care. He has an electoral college strategy.



Click: Call Berkeley IGS
The Berkeley Institute of Intergovernmental Studies released a poll this week showing only 29% of Californians now planned to vote for Trump; 67% opposed him. This is even worse than his 30 point loss in 2016. It was a robust poll of over 4,500 people. 

The problem is that in the electoral college, Trump can only lose California once. California is 10 percent of the country, and its numbers get figured into national numbers. Trump is in trouble nationally, but in the nation excluding California, it isn't so bad. As Trump supporters note, Trump won the popular vote in the country, once you exclude California.

In California 69% of voters disapprove of his job performance. In California 72% think the country is on the wrong track. Those indicators of Trump weakness that show up in national numbers. Democrats who take comfort in a 4 point lead of a Democrat over Trump, or a persistent 4 point spread in an Approval-Disapproval figure, would be underestimating the California affect on a national poll. A 52-48 split against Trump means an electoral college victory for him, because in that mix is the California 10% of the country splitting 70-30 against him. That 10% piece moves the national number 4 points.

In the electoral college, losing big in California is no worse than losing in a squeaker--55 electoral votes--and Trump is running against California for the financial and cultural benefit of the swing states. The 2017 tax bill's limit on deductions for State and local taxes penalized blue states like California, while lowering taxes in red states with low income taxes. Trump's big message on immigration plays badly in California, with its huge population of Latinix and Asians, but is received better in states in the Upper Midwest, with a predominately white native-born population spooked about demographic change.

For Trump's base, California is the horror story to avoid. It has prosperity, sure, but with high taxes, congestion, alternative lifestyles, and non-Hispanic whites are already a minority. 

California matters in a popular vote, and it is how we look at most polls, but that is not how we elect presidents.  Democrats need to win big to win at all.




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