Americans discovered we aren’t stuck. Voters have agency. Voters took off their chains.
We have free will!
The election had a lesson for both parties: Old alignments aren’t frozen, and policy-making isn’t trapped between two sides dug into trench warfare. Texas, Kansas, Alaska, and even Mississippi are battleground states, if voters want them to be.
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| Fox News: Trump said the Democratic gains were Fox's fault. |
The losing side in a tsunami election is the one most likely to adjust. Vice President JD Vance was quick out of the gate, breaking with Trump and calling for a new direction: End the Iran war, focus on the cost of living, change our relationship with Israel.
Republican candidates and officeholders also have new cautionary tales. The old ones were Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, and Adam Kinzinger, whose careers ended because they defied Trump. The new ones are Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Senate candidate Ken Paxton, and Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who trails in a race still too close to call. Their ties to Trump sank them, and they are in red states. Republican politicians learned something new: Even in “Trump country,” voters will change their minds about Trump.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s strategy once made sense. Keep the GOP coalition 100-percent compliant with Trump. It proved dangerous, indeed fatal, in any district with less than a 10-point Republican registration advantage.
There was a broad shift in voter behavior. Democratic House candidates who made the race a referendum on Trump -- and most did -- moved the balance their way.
The election will change Democrats, too. The 2024 election taught Democrats the peril of getting too far out in front of the average American on cultural issues like gender and affirmative action. Still, Democrats remained the party of well-educated coastal urbanites and it largely represented their sensibilities. Political consensus said that was the geography for Democrats. The only question was whether the Blue Wall line moved a point or two one way or the other.
That is different now. Voters left the trenches and their traditional party affiliation. Republicans voted for the Democrat. The field has opened up. Voters can vote for change. It can happen. It did happen.
That changes what it means to be a Democrat, because Democrats now include representation from red-state America. Once again, Democrats will represent farmers and ranchers. They will represent cultural conservatives. Five years ago Democrats were furious with U.S Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) a moderate. Now they have elected representative from states almost as conservative as is West Virginia. They will need to adapt. Some Democrats won't want them to. Something new will emerge out of that conflict.
Readers in Oregon may think I am wrong about breaking free of closed-minded party-line thinking, at least among Democrats. How else could Republican gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan have lost the governor’s race? How else could Republican Brad Hicks, with his extraordinary campaign advantages, have lost his state Senate race? Republicans fled Trump, but Democrats did not flee their party.
I think many Democrats wanted to, at least on the governor's race. There is substantial fatigue and dissatisfaction with Oregon’s Democratic leadership. Entrenched parties (and Texas and Oregon both experienced this) slide toward unpopular excesses. The interest groups that shape policy get too much of what they want. We saw it during Covid, when the teachers union, the OEA, made teacher health and safety, not student education, the state’s priority. That sows seeds of discontent.
So why did Drazan and Hicks lose so badly, if their campaign theme of restoring balance in Salem reflected what a critical mass of Oregon voters were thinking? Because Democrats and a critical mass of voters think Trump-compliant Republicans can not be trusted with power; Trump abuses power and Republicans let him do it. Trump looms larger in voters’ minds than Governor Tina Kotek or the Oregon Legislature. Kotek got reluctant votes. Better Kotek than a go-along Republican. Neither Drazan nor Hicks dared to break free of Trump, so they spent a fortune and lost decisively. They didn't read the room.
Both major parties are going through a realignment. A week ago it didn’t seem possible. Now it seems inevitable. It is happening in real time. The 2026 election accelerates that process because voters see that they can make change. They can move the needle. We have government by the people. What a heady thought.
We are free.
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"Happy Days are here again, Happy Days are here, Happy Days are here, Happy Days are here again."
ReplyDeleteMy only hope is the democrats play their hand skillfully, acheiving results on affordability, healthcare, corruption and fiscal responsibility.
ReplyDeleteFor the moment I feel hopeful with the results of this election. It is a massive win!
ReplyDeleteNot so fast. We elected Barack Obama for "hope and change." It's now 2026. The last fifteen years demonstrate that change, whatever that means, is easier said than done.
ReplyDeleteRepublicans got the no they needed and secretly wanted. They don’t like Trump either but were afraid to not bend the knee to him. Now they have some motivation and permission to do so. Some criminals stop their criminal behavior because of the consequences of prison, but others continue along doing life on the installment plan in and out of jail. It will be interesting to watch how many republicans change their obsequious behavior or do they need more consequences.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what Trump will do between now and January 3rd. The Republicans still hold power in Congress until then. Will he be contrite? Or go on the offensive? I think it's a day to day thing, depending on his mood that day.
ReplyDeleteHe might try to work with the new Congress or just veto everything. His mental collapse could trigger anything. Whatever happens, it will be unpredictable.
With all the Democratic wins in the old Confederacy (Note that every single statewide race in Texas and Georgia - from Governor and US Senator down through Agriculture Commissioner and Supreme Court judge were one by Democrats; and the significant gains that Dems made in State legislatures across the South), one can question whether the US Supreme Court's evisceration of the Voting Rights Act was, in fact, incorrect. Perhaps African Americans don't need federal oversight of southern legislatures' redistricting efforts? I certainly don't agree with the Court's ruling, but the 2026 election results add some complexity to the issue.
ReplyDeleteTwo years ago, Republicans were sitting on the top of the world. Two years later, and they are in shambles. Democrats have two years to prove their worth to the voters, or else in two years they will face annihilation, too.
ReplyDeleteWe're now all set: Time for Vance to initiate the 25th Amendment to remove Trump, because it's his only chance to get the top spot. All he has to do is promise pardons to the entire cabinet, plus Trump himself. Should work!
ReplyDelete“The 2024 election taught Democrats the peril of getting too far out in front of the average American on cultural issues …” But did they take that lesson to heart? Governor elect Hinojosa distinguishes herself as a populist, and not a progressive. Progressives inflame the culture war, which is just a distraction from providing concrete material benefits to the working class. If Democrats go back to focusing on “Woke” policies, the pendulum could shift right back just as quickly.
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