Messy Democrats: A close up look at a meeting of Jackson County, Oregon, Democrats

No wonder Republicans win elections, even with a flagrantly corrupt, lawless, crude candidate like Trump.

Democrats are a mess. 

Krause at her general election kickoff event

Krause is a very successful grassroots organizer

The good news for Denise Krause: Krause got the endorsement of her local Democratic Party in a Zoom meeting last night.

The bad news for Krause: It was a divided group. She only won 41 to 14, 

Start with her good news. She is at work smoothing the water, reminding fractious Democrats that she respects the four candidates she defeated in the May primary, that endorsements and pledges of support are coming in from unions, advocacy groups, and fellow Democrats from around the county and state, and that polls suggest she is ahead in a matchup against the Republican candidate. 

Her problem is that intra-party politics are a mix of longtime personal relationships, disappointments, policy emphasis, and factions within a group. From the outside, the distinctions seem trivial and petty and not worth risking electing a Republican. Krause narrowly defeated Tonia Moro, who had longer roots with precinct committee people. Krause's grassroots support includes that circle and added to it. Voters needed to make a hard choice between them. People have their friends. 

There was a catalyst for disagreement: whether Krause jettisoned promptly enough, and with sufficient condemnation, an out-of-town campaign consultant who had been accused of a sex crime 20 years ago. 

Personal feelings are involved. Incumbent state senator Jeff Golden had endorsed Moro. Democrats rejected Golden's succession advice. Shortly after the election, Golden emailed and then telephoned me, urging me to attend an event that would feature Oregon state senators in a meeting in Ashland, Krause's home town. The meeting was to raise funds for a staff person for the legislature's environmental caucus. I have been in the situation of the worried host making a last-minute push to fill an event: You call the obvious examples of familiar people. It would have been a perfect event for Krause to attend and be among future colleagues, a place for her to affirm her support for the common cause. Golden did not invite her to the gathering, the person in line to replace him as state senator, the single most obvious and appropriate person to be there. That was a warning sign for me.

Krause's problem is exacerbated by there being a vehicle for dissent: Clay Bearnson, a former Medford City Council member. 

From the Zoom meeting. He attended but, like me, was a non-voting guest.

Bearnson decided to enter the state senate race, filing for office as an Independent, with the support of several members of the Democratic Party who had preferred Moro.

Several Democratic precinct people spoke on Bearnson's behalf at the meeting, one making the point that he was a rebel who would shake up the system. A former Medford City Council colleague, Sarah Spansall, spoke in favor of Bearnson, saying that aside from her, he was the most progressive member of the council. 

The incoming secretary for the local party, Richie Owens, spoke in favor of endorsing Bearnson, but, oddly, when it came time to vote moments later, he marked his ballot with a Red X meaning NO.

Isabella Lee Tibbets, a Democratic candidate for county commissioner, voted NO on endorsing Krause with this red X, and NO on endorsing Bearnson. [Note, that this has been updated. She informed me that I was in error saying she had voted YES on Bearnson.]

Even the party chair, David Sours, did not back Krause with a public word of support, nor a green check mark visible to participants. Most people around him in the Zoom mosaic had green check marks. Not Sours. It is possible that he voted privately, by text message, for or against Krause, but party members looking to the chair to support their elected candidate, did not find it in Sours.

No red X. No green check-mark

Bearnson was not endorsed by the Democratic Party. He got 13 votes; 43 votes opposed endorsing him. Krause dodged that bullet.

I consider this support from the local Democratic party to be underwhelming for Krause. It isn't a good sign. But it is not dispositive, either. Republicans have their own brand problem. 

The tool that Republicans have to win this race -- a growing stockpile of money -- is a poor fit for their task. The Bearnson candidacy is an opportunity to spend a portion of the GOP money supporting Bearnson. (Hey, progressive Democratic Socialists, vote for Bearnson!!! Get who you REALLY want.)  It may work, but there is a problem. This message tends to undermine the argument that Krause is extreme, and the central GOP message is to bring balance to Salem. Bearnson positions Krause in the balanced middle. 

Moreover, regardless of denoted content, a GOP avalanche of ads is a giant statement that Republicans are the big-money party at a moment when billionaire pay-for-play politics and corruption is in the news. Even mere multi-millionaires are intimidated and offended by the raw power of billionaire money in politics. Phil Knight is not content to buy athletic championships for the University of Oregon; he wants to buy a GOP legislature, too. It's a bad look, and a dilemma for Republicans with a million dollars to spend in this tiny media market. If Republican don't spend the money, Krause has an easy lay-up election in a Democratic district. If they do spend the money, their candidates look like the pawn of billionaires elites.

Democrats will do what Democrats do: fracture and fight among themselves. 

Republicans will do what Republicans do: reunify Democrats by bullying them with too much money from the wrong people.

[Note: If people I have written about disagree, or want to put out their own story, I welcome their thoughts and would publish their comments as guest posts over the next few days.]

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