Democratic incumbent Governor Tina Kotek is stuck with the gas tax and what it represents.
Her Republican challenger, state Senator Christine Drazan, is stuck with Trump and what he represents.
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| Christine Drazan and Tina Kotek |
Eighty-three percent of Oregonians voted "NO" on Measure 120, the gas tax, registration, and fee hikes referendum. Democrats passed the measure in a special session to keep the Oregon Department of Transportation from laying off snow plow drivers and closing DMV offices. Republicans quickly gathered petition signatures to put it on the May ballot, giving voters a chance to rescind the "Democratic tax." Democrats have large majorities in the legislature, and Democrats hold all the statewide offices. Tina Kotek is up for re-election this year.
The measure was a litmus test on how feel people about taxes, yes, but also about how they feel about Democrats. Oregonians were voting about the cost of living, homelessness and homeless encampments, Oregon's low rank in education, the hollowing out of Portland's downtown, the high cost of housing, job losses in Oregon, Oregon's 10 percent state income tax, and Oregon losing population because people are moving to other states.
Tina Kotek has a problem. Drazan is a credible candidate, an establishment Republican. If the election is a referendum on Kotek, I predict Kotek will lose.
Kotek needs to change the frame and make the election about Trump and his Republican enablers and sycophants. Kotek is an incumbent, so it is inevitable it will be in part about her; she is stuck with that. But she isn't stuck with its being a referendum on her alone. It can be two referenda: on Kotek and Trump. Trump makes that possible; inevitable, even. He insists on being the center of attention, always making news, always shocking, always ferocious in his opposition to Democrats. The news is about him, him, him. That suits Kotek's frame perfectly. Trump has been open about targeting blue states, and his attempts to ban vote-by-mail put this attack front and center right at election time.
Let the two faces in the voters' minds be Kotek's and Trump's. Let Trump be seen as the dangerous disrupter.
Shape the referenda with Kotek in the role of Oregon's embattled defender; Trump is the troublemaker.
-- Gasoline prices are high? Kotek didn't go to war with Iran; Trump did.
-- Tariffs raising prices and destroying the markets for wheat and wine? They are Trump's tariffs. Oregon led the states in filing objections to the tariffs.
-- Grocery prices are high? Blame Trump's ICE for targeting the wrong people: farm workers in stead of criminals.
-- Home building is down? Trump's tariffs on Canadian softwood and steel raised the price of new construction.
-- Education is struggling? Trump cut the Department of Education.
-- Forest management is neglected? Trump's DOGE made disastrous cuts to the U.S. Forest Service, over Oregon's objections.
-- Taxes are high? Trump gave tax breaks to billionaire campaign contributors.
On Tuesday I wrote a controversial post saying that a Democrat running for Congress has a longshot chance of winning election in my bright-red congressional district. How? By avoiding making it a comparison election between a Democrat and a Republican. Instead, make it a referendum election on Trump and his GOP enablers.
Kotek has the same opportunity. A comparison election with Drazan makes it about Oregon discontent, and voters want change. That positions Kotek as the villain. But a referendum on Trump makes Kotek a hero, Trump the villain, and Drazan a sidekick of the villain. Trump likes being the strong guy in charge of everything. Let him play that role. Be the guy who created this status quo.
Drazan will be talking about the gas tax, as the symbol of what is wrong with Kotek. That's her best play. Kotek will be talking about Trump, as the symbol of what is wrong with Drazan. That's Kotek's play.
Kotek is more popular than Trump.
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-- Home building is down? Trump has refused to sign a landmark bipartisan housing affordability bill passed by Congress unless it first helps him rig the midterm elections.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the gas tax: I kind of like having drivable roads.
Would a republican governor allow a free and fair election?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that “Your life sucks, but it’s someone else’s fault.“ is not going to be a winning position for an incumbent governor who had four years when she was supposed to be making your life better.
ReplyDeletePresident Trump has been president for 5 1/2 years and he says your life sucks and it was Obama's fault. Then it was the rigged election's fault. Then it was Biden and Hillary and Obama's fault. Then it was Canada and Mexico's fault, Then he said it was Mexico's fault what with them sending their criminals, then it was Muslims fault because they are Muslim, and the fault of people from shithole countries, then Haitians and Somolis fault. He says it forcefully and he sticks to the story. Michael, what makes you think that Kotek saying it is Trump's fault would not be persuasive when Trump says it is other people's fault, and it seems to work pretty well.
DeleteDonald Trump has a ton of charisma, which enables him to put a message across effectively. Tina Kotek has no charisma. Her camera presence is best described as: invisible. The only thing she has going for her is the Democratic Party label.
DeleteI do not think Kotek has what it takes to “change the frame.”
Donald Trump has a ton of charisma to those who find a fat, ugly, lying crime boss appealing. Like attracts like.
DeleteI voted for the gas tax, even though it is regressive. But financially stressed people did not have that option.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I live in Florida. No state income tax. I get to keep it. I get to spend it. If you lived in Washington or Nevada, states that border Oregon, you'd get to keep it, too. In Oregon, if you made $75,000 for the year, you would fork over $6277 to the state. That's not including your Federal taxes. California takes 13%.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how the states with no tax function. What are those people are losing without a tax on their income. What services are they missing?
There's a problem with the tax system in this country. Every state treats it differently. From 0%-13% and everything in between. Do people want to be taxed? Of course not.
If I was running for Governor of Oregon, I would propose a statewide vote to decide if state taxes were necessary. List all those things these taxes pay for and let the people decide if they really need them. If they decide they can live without those things, like some other states do, then bring the tax rate down to zero. The world won't end if that happens. People will just have more money in their pocket.
The only taxes we have in Florida are the sales tax and property taxes. The Governor is now floating an idea to end property taxes. That would save me $5000/year. Even now, there is no property tax on cars, just homes.
That the way to run a state.
I concur.
DeleteI too left Oregon for Florida.
We've had 1,000 new residents per day come to Florida. Yes, there are state income taxes for businesses. And yes there are reasonable property taxes and a sales tax.
And yes property taxes are on the path to be even lower. And there are sales tax holidays each year for hurricane prep supplies and school supplies.
Somehow, Florida runs a surplus each year, too.
Of course, there are pros and cons for living in Florida. Most of us who moved here in recent years have figured things out. Business is booming. Roads, new homes, and businesses are being built.
Perhaps there are a few things Oregon could learn:
- why are people leaving? Especially those who are upper income, and were paying those high taxes. That means the remaining residents have to pick up the tab to run state and local government.
- is there something to learn about how to run effective and efficient government agencies? Why are state and local expenses higher per resident than most other states?
- Oregon K-12 school outcomes are declining and hovering near the bottom. Why? Again, Oregon spends a lot on education. The spending per student is above te national average, and the states spending less seem to have better K-12 outcomes.
Is there anything Oregon leaders can learn from other states? Are they even trying?
Sure, the justification for higher taxes is to provide more funds to run the state and cites. That said, how do other states and cities seem to do more for less $$$ per resident? Are there fixed costs and obligations that overwhelm the ability to pay?
Right. 80 year old mean fat man with charisma.
ReplyDeletePeter Sage is a sorry-assed propagandist, who tries to associate everyone with Trump. First, Peter knows nothing about Christine Drazan and her positions, and secondly it's likely that Drazan voted for Joe Biden and not Trump.
ReplyDeleteThen Drazan has an opportunty to win this election by saying publicly that she didn't vote for Trump and say why. That confounds my proposed strategy for Kotek. The question is whether it is true and she is willing to say it aloud, and whether Republican voters will tolerate that and still support her. Maybe they will. She should try it out.
Delete