Would-a, could-a, should-a

     “Four things do not come back: the spoken word, the sped arrow, the past life, and the neglected opportunity.”
           Ancient saying

I could have been fabulously wealthy. I had every opportunity.

You also.

I don't reflect on the new year in a spirit of remorse. Quite the opposite. I have had extraordinary good fortune, starting with having been born healthy in the USA in 1949 to a happy, stable, middle-class family in Southern Oregon. I didn't get polio. I didn't get drafted into the war in Vietnam. And my generation got to enjoy the greatest music of all time.

Part of what buoys my mood is the realization that I had great opportunities presented to me on a silver platter. I don't feel jealous of the Walton or Trump children. I had my chance.

Boomers in my age cohort -- born in 1949 -- were about age 50 in the year 2000, putting us in the full tide of adulthood. It was a particularly prosperous time in America. Many of us had money to invest. The stock market was high and the U.S. was paying down the national debt rapidly at this point in Bill Clinton's presidency. 

I-Mac, circa 2000

$3.2 million. I was familiar with Apple computers throughout the 1990s. The company's stock was readily purchasable as a reasonable, prudent investment. A $10,000 investment in Apple at the beginning of year 2000, not counting the 26 years of dividends, would now be valued at $3,200,000.

$8.7 million. I became aware of Netflix about the time it went public in 2002. I rented movies from them. A $10,000 investment, again not counting dividends, would be valued today at $8,700,000.

$21 million. NVIDIA would have been a bit more aggressive a purchase for me. The company was not widely known, but I was, after all, an investment advisor with access to investment research and could have known about the company.  A $10,000 investment  would be valued today at $21,000,000.

$18 billion. Bitcoin did not exist to buy in the year 2000, but it was available to buy for five cents per coin in 2010.  A $10,000 investment in 2010 would be priced at about $18 billion today.

To be realistic about missed opportunities, I would not have bought $10,000 of Bitcoin. I consider it a fraudulent investment, something with a price but no real value. I liken it to other collectables, like stamps or rare coins, and therefore derivative of other wealth made from owning assets with value. (If a person owns a profitable widget factory, and wants to spend a million dollars on a misprinted stamp with Grover Cleveland's face on it, he can do so. And maybe he can sell it later to someone else who will pay two million, making it a profitable exchange for him. But as I figure it, the wealth came from selling widgets. Without the wealth, there would be no price for the stamp.)

$60 million

$1.8 billion. I would not buy $10,000 worth of something I thought was worthless, in 2010 or now. But in 2010 I might have been open to throwing away money on a totally crazy, stupid investment idea, digital tokens, as a $1,000 flier, if someone had pitched it to me. I might have treated it like buying an ugly painting at a charity auction to help a good cause, or perhaps on a bit of self-indulgence, like spending the extra $1,000 to fly United's Economy Plus on a cross-country trip, with two extra inches of legroom, rather than economy, which is my normal practice. I would figure that I could sell it the worthless investment for a loss in a year and take the tax deduction. That $1,000 flier would be worth $1.8 billion now and I could easily afford a Gulfstream jet. Could-a, would-a, should-a.

I have never bought any amount of Bitcoin. 

Sometimes we know the opportunities we have missed. We don't know some of the tragedies we have avoided: the oncoming car that swerved over the center line a minute after we passed each other, or the blood clot that stays attached to an artery wall and does not break free. Those missed events are out there, too.

I think the world is pretty messed up, and there lots of things that are wrong and could get a lot worse, but I don't have regrets over what I don't have financially. I had every opportunity. 

We all did.

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