Public attention is focused. A majority of Americans don't like ICE's methods. Especially what happened in Minneapolis.
That's the opportunity.
A majority of Americans do like ICE's overall mission.
That is the point where Democrats may screw this up.
The New York Times published a poll showing Americans' views on the tactics ICE uses. A significant number of Americans don't think the tactics are rough enough, A majority of Republican voters approve of ICE tactics. They look at the protests and believe Trump when he says those "paid agitators" deserve what they get. They like that Trump is a bad-ass.
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| New York Times |
This poll is consistent with the Reuters/Ipsos poll I cited yesterday. A majority of Americans support the ICE mission to deport people here illegally. A majority of Americans -- but far from all -- are unhappy with their current methods.
Jeff Mauer's "I Might Be Wrong" Substack displayed a graph that describes the peril for Democrats.
Democrats have lacked a national spokesperson for a decade. Joe Biden never had the communication skills to voice a clear national message, and Trump is, as always, the loudest voice in any arena. Biden walked a tightrope within factions of the Democratic Party, some of whom wanted open borders, some of whom want amnesty for some people, and nearly all of whom recognized the conflict between the contributions immigrants make combined with the unfairness of rewarding lawbreakers. There is no Democratic message. There is only objection to Trump's.
A clear, principled Democratic position is certain to disappoint some people. Every policy includes cruelty and arbitrariness because the situation is complicated. There are mixed-status families. Some people committed some law violation; some did not. Some people own businesses and pay taxes; others do not. Some people arrived as infants; some arrived as adults intentionally breaking the law.
Democrats are not starting at zero in search of a policy. President Obama voiced a clear, but nuanced one.
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| March 18, 2009 in a town hall in Iowa |
So this is not going to be a free ride. It's not going to be some instant amnesty. What's going to happen is you are going to pay a significant fine. You are going to learn English. You are going to -- you are going to go to the back of the line so that you don't get ahead of somebody who was in Mexico City applying legally. But after you've done these things over a certain period of time you can earn your citizenship, so that it's not -- it's not something that is guaranteed or automatic. You've got to earn it. But over time you give people an opportunity.Some Democrats will object. Some see people entering the U.S. as a human right, therefore trumping the value of fairness. Some don't think learning English is a priority. They think it cruel to require people who have roots here to return. Obama said we need to do all the pieces of this for it to seem fair to Americans.
Now, it only works though if you do all the pieces. I think the American people, they appreciate and believe in immigration. But they can't have a situation where you just have half a million people pouring over the border without any kind of mechanism to control it. So we've got to deal with that at the same time as we deal in a humane fashion with folks who are putting down roots here, have become our neighbors, have become our friends, they may have children who are U.S. citizens. That's the kind of comprehensive approach that we have to take.
6 comments:
Peter is correct about what the Democrats need to do. The question is, will Democratic primary voters let them do it? Will the most motivated, furthest to the left, Mamdani wing of the party allow it?
I have my doubts…
Manner-and-mode critiques of immigration law and border enforcement certainly have their place, and recent ugly events in the Twin Cities have put those issues front and center.
That said, for most public-facing Democrats "tactics" is a stalking horse for "Abolish ICE!". Find a Democratic pol who will name ANY cadre who should be arrested and deported, period.
Sound counsel from the blog proprietor.
Look up these two 1996 laws passed by Congress and signed by President Clinton: AEDPA and IIRIRA. These laws were a one-two punch that profoundly changed immigration law. As a result of these laws, there effectively isn't a "line" for many aliens to stand in to eventually obtain lawful status. Politicians such as President Obama and all the Republicans in Congress who speak of "following the rules" to become lawful are kidding us when they don't acknowledge IIRIRA and AEDPA. Maybe more to the point, many of the politicians who passed these laws, and perhaps President Clinton, probably told themselves that no one would seriously enforce these laws by rounding up the illegal aliens who can't get legal status. But the IIRIRA and AEDPA chickens have come home to roost. You who are appalled by the detention of men, women, and children in order to remove them from the United States: What part of "illegal" do you not understand? Democrats: I'd prefer to hear more about constructive proposals for immigration law going forward, and much less complaining about ICE.
Aside from racism, the "system" was working. Cheap labor kept prices down and profits flowing. Republican's economic policy is a failure so Gingrich pivoted to bigotry and voila, Trump!
Not racist you say? Explain to me why ICE isn't perp walking every CEO that hires illegal immigrants? I'll wait.
Yes, we obviously need rational, reasonable immigration policies, but that would require rational, reasonable politicians. Meanwhile, we have an army of masked, heavily armed thugs running amok, terrorizing entire cities and calling their victims terrorists. Trump infamously boasted of being able to shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Ave. and not lose any support. In fact, he’s done worse.
Those who approve of what he’s doing idolize him for his brutality, which they consider “strength.” The 39% or so who wallow in his cruelty and those who make lame excuses for them are the aptly named “basket of deplorable.”
Ds: Ineptitude and misdirection. Fact is, I don’t hear any policy proposals, just personal attacks. Impeach Noem, fire Miller, etc.
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