Canada: The tariff fight coninues

You probably heard:

The Toronto Blue Jays lost to the L.A Dodgers in the 11th inning of game seven.

Many Americans were hoping Toronto would win. 

—- Some dislike Los Angeles and anything to do with it.

—- Some are American League fans.

—- Some were thinking about which outcome would rankle President Trump more.

People focused on Trump may have calculated that he would dislike liberal, Democratic L.A. in the home state of Gavin Newsom, but that he would dislike even more Toronto in the Canadian province of Ontario. Trump would not want to watch Toronto team's celebrating and expressing national pride with Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. 

It is petty, I realize, for anyone to cheer for whatever frustrates Trump, but this is an era when petty things have national and international importance. President Trump threw a fit and put a 10 percent surcharge on Canadian imports because the province of Ontario published an ad depicting Republican hero Ronald Reagan speaking against tariffs. 

College classmate Sandford Borins keeps an eye on the U.S.-Canada relationship. He is a professor of Public Management Emeritus at the University of Toronto. He maintains a website where he shares his thoughts on politics and life in Canada: https://sandfordborins.com This post was published there yesterday.

Borins

Guest Post by Sandford Borins

That Ontario Ad: So Much Hypocrisy

It’s been about a week since Trump went ballistic about the Ontario Government ad quoting Ronald Reagan’s advocacy of free trade and skepticism about tariffs. We’ve seen the reactions of the President, Prime Minister, and Premier as well as several key players (US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra) and a public opinion poll showing more Canadians support than oppose Doug Ford’s decision to run the ad.

I count myself among the supporters of the ad, primarily because it powerfully states the case for free trade, identifying it as the preferred policy of Republican icon Ronald Reagan. I think this is something Americans must know. As advocacy, the ad effectively combines the classic techniques of logos, explaining how tariffs hurt an economy; ethos, using the unmistakable voice and a photo of President Reagan; and pathos, combining images of economic stagnation when tariffs are discussed with images of the Ontario-US border (Niagara Falls, of course) at the conclusion, all accompanied by an appropriate sound track. Here is the ad, and I encourage you to watch, or re-watch it, bearing that Aristotelian trinity in mind.

Click

 Watching the ad, and political reactions to it, made clear the hypocrisy of the main political players. Trump initially was okay with the ad, but then for reasons that have caused much speculation, attacked it as “fake,” “fraudulent,” and a “serious misrepresentation of the truth.” People who worked on trade policy in the Reagan Administration such as Paul Krugman and Douglas Irwin have pointed out that the Ontario ad faithfully represents Reagan’s position on trade and tariffs. As has always been the case and as epitomizes his brand, it is Trump who is faking and fraudulent. 

In a Washington where Republican legislators immediately endorse as revealed truth whatever Dear Leader says, it is refreshing to hear none other than Ronald Reagan cited in opposition to Dear Leader. That said, Doug Ford strikes me as an unlikely truth-teller. In Ontario politics, Ford has been a serial liar, misrepresenting the virtues of his preferred policies (Therme Spa, Highway 413, the 401 tunnel, and nuclear reactors) and the shortcomings of the things he wants to destroy (the Moriyama Science Centre, bicycle lanes, speed cameras, and the carbon tax). 

Though the Ontario ad closely represents Prime Minister Carney’s view of tariffs, Carney apologized to Trump for the ad. While only Trump and Carney know exactly what was said, I hope that Carney gave a “sorry, not sorry” apology, such as “I’m sorry that the Ontario Government’s ad, faithfully stating President Reagan’s views about tariffs, has upset you.” 

Treasury Secretary Bessent, who has taken on the role of chief advocate for Trump’s misguided economic policies, had a different critique of the Ontario ad than Trump. He called it “propaganda” and a “psy-op” intended to “sway public opinion,” which is not calling it fraudulent, and also citing it as “interference in sovereign US matters.” This is the same Scott Bessent who recently designed a $20 billion currency stabilization loan to Argentina just before its congressional elections, contingent on Javier Milei’s party winning the election. 

Five months ago, US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra was speaking to the Empire Club about the importance of Canada’s relationship with the US and about negotiating mutually beneficially outcomes. His mood has rapidly darkened, calling Canadians “mean and nasty” for boycotting travel to the US, and last week swearing about the Ontario Government’s ad at the Canadian American Business Council Gala. Hoekstra, who has a record of undiplomatic speech and action in a previous posting as US Ambassador to the Netherlands, now appears to be transitioning from ambassador to would-be Roman proconsul. 

Grounds for Delay 

In my view, the most desirable effect of the ad is that it has led to a breakdown in negotiations. There are a number of reasons to believe the Trump Administration’s bargaining position will weaken, such as the prospect of the Supreme Court ruling that the Administration hasn’t proven there is an economic emergency that justifies sectoral tariffs, higher prices in the US reducing public support for tariffs, Trump’s declining popularity, and the forthcoming CUSMA negotiations as a more favourable context for Canada. Trump wants a quick win in negotiations with Canada, comparable to some other nations (the UK, Japan, Vietnam). It doesn’t appear that Trump will get it, which will lead to him calling Canadian negotiators nasty, just like he called Minister Chrystia Freeland nasty during and after the CUSMA negotiations. Better nasty than weak. If the Ontario ad has sent this message, then it has been a “worthwhile Canadian initiative”, though in the opposite sense to how that phrase was first used.

 

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