Loophole.
Trump is floating a plan to stay in office past 2028. He is doing it deftly -- by denying it.
He is letting the idea percolate and normalize.
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| For sale at the official Trump merchandise store: $50. |
President Trump is using a well-known technique for testing an idea that risks sharp rejection. Make a "joke" about it. Or suggest an idea by denying it. ("You wouldn't want to come to my place for a drink, would you?") Now the idea is on the table, so an unthinkable idea has become thinkable and a matter of debate. Then maybe Trump can call whatever happens a groundswell of support. After all, Trump now has enormous power over the indicia of popular support -- the media, the Department of Justice and the military, the wealthiest people in the world, and the ability to count and report election results.
Asked if he planned to stay on as president after 2028 Trump told a reporter this week:
I would love to do it — I have the best numbers ever! … Am I not ruling it out? You’ll have to tell me.Then he added,
But I wouldn’t do it. It’s too cute. I think the people wouldn’t like that. It wouldn’t be right.So, of course, Trump rejects the idea. Sure, it would give him more power to express his greatness, but "it wouldn't be right." That would deter Trump, right? Ha!
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| Cox |
As a 46-year lawyer, as a member of the Bar of the United States Supreme Court, as a keenly interested observer of constitutional law issues, and as someone who vomited at the sight of the insurrection against our Republic that transpired on Jan 6, I write to speculate about the various possible grounds upon which President Trump and his advisors (such as Steve Bannon) might be planning to rely as a means of circumventing the restrictions imposed by the 22nd Amendment that otherwise would prevent Trump from seeking a third or even fourth presidential term.
Here is the language of the 22nd Amendment:
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice. . . . ”
The point I wish to make here is that by using the phrase “shall be elected to the office” instead of “shall serve in the office” the 22nd Amendment opens itself up to interpretations that would allow Trump to serve more than two presidential terms.
Here’s how:
Trump could argue that the federal election results in 2028 are invalid (by reason of vague and unsupported allegations of fraud like those which resulted in the January 6th insurrection), and therefore that no one can “be elected” to the presidency in 2028. Thus, Trump can argue that he can assume the presidency by acclamation and not by election, and therefore that he will not have been “elected” for “more than two terms.” I doubt whether Trump will get away with this, just as his minions did not get away with lynching Vice President Pence or changing the Electoral College vote certification on January 6, 2021. But he may try it.
Alternatively, Trump could make a deal, if has not already done so as part of his appointment of JD Vance as his running mate in 2024, that would result in Vance running for president in 2028 with Trump as his VP nominee. The agreement would be that Vance will resign immediately after elected, thereby allowing Trump to become president for a third term as he would not have been “elected” for a third term, thereby avoiding the restrictions of the 22nd Amendment. I find this option very possible, and to constitute exactly the kind of pretense dishonesty that this president is capable of and engages in repeatedly.
Had Trump not been elected in 2024, it is my opinion that he would likely be in Chapter 11 bankruptcy now to forestall the collection of many adverse court judgments that otherwise would have been entered against him. He will therefore do almost anything to hold onto this office. He will do this for compelling personal protection reasons, and certainly not for protection of the republic nor to facilitate the public interest.
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So, it has taken awhile, but someone has finally written up what I suspected and concluded weeks or months ago:
ReplyDelete"Trump has figured out a way to get a 3rd term as our President!"
Personally, I don't think there is any chance that Trump will seek a 3rd term, or get one.
I think that Trump is merely "pressing buttons" to divert attention, and keep TDS alive, by feeding the masses who simply cannot stand him. There is no hope that many will ever stop worrying about what he is doing to the Presidency and the country.
For me, Trump is doing a lot of good as President. Along with that, no leader is perfect; of course there are many things he is doing that are not very good. I just believe that a leader can never be perfect; there just needs to be more good than bad.
And yes, I realize that many will disagree with me. They'll assume I am just another one of those MAGA idiots. So be it, because I am not. I'm not a person who votes the party line. I've tried to make sure I voted for the best person that could do the job at the time.
I don't have any MAGA accessories, no Trump souvenirs, no Trump bitcoins, nor did I, nor do I have any plans to send any money to Trump's campaigns or support groups.
Meanwhile, I am enjoying my sunset years, and making sure that my family is doing OK while they serve the country, preparing our future service members and leaders.
You say, "Trump is doing a lot of good as president." I can see all the good he's doing for himself - avoiding prison for his coup attempt and raking in the profits from his corruption - but for the country? Not so much.
DeleteWill Trump ever just go away?
ReplyDeleteBut, what if Vance liked being President and declined to let Trump take over? What would Trump do? Throw a tantrum. Accuse Vance of lying? Encourage his followers to take Vance out? Scream that he was cheated even though he was cheating? Of course, that assumes that Vance was elected. Nothing certain about that.
ReplyDeleteIt's about time the Democrats get their act together and win. Otherwise, who knows?
Trump bombed Iran, thereby denying nuclear weapons to a regime of jihadist fanatics. That’s a huge positive.
ReplyDeleteIf he follows that up with a peace deal and an expansion of the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia, the Norwegians will have to grit their teeth and award him the Nobel Peace Prize. And it will be fascinating to watch the American left tie themselves in knots, trying to figure out a way to disapprove of it.
I think I understasnd MT's core political orientation at this moment. He is furius at the politica left. Among other things, woke people in universities, including his own Portland Community College, insulted his values by trying to create "equity{ in the ability to do professional-level work in computers. That was stupid of them, but they persisted, thereby abusing the merit orientation of high-achieving people, including MT. He deserves to be angry. Moreover, the college-age left, growing up seeing a powerful Israel, not the Israel that was the refuge of post holocaust Jews, tend to see Israel as an oppressor and Palestinians as an abused and powerless underclass. That is reason for older Jews to think the young left has abandoned common sense. Don't they realize that Jews are the victims here??? Not necessarily. That isn't their observation and experience.
DeleteWith that said, MT's comment here is part of a familiar pattern, observing that the foolish and blind left is ignorant of and unwilling to see Trump's achievements beause, after all, the left is still that woke, Trump derranged, group that fails to recognize Israel's morality and worth. But that blinds MT, too, in my opinion. It forces him to accept an alternative fact as regards any longterm value to the bombing of Iran's nuclear facility. Google the subject. It set Iran back a couple of months -- maybe more. But every action has a reaction. Iran has now moved everything deeper underground and made it more secretive and it raised the status of hawks inside Iran. A Pyrrhic victory. Or Fools Gold. Or a short term win for a longer term loss.
To continue a theme of this blog, backfire and turnabout, I think that MT likely has tied himself in knots trying to see Trump as a peacemaker here, when in fact he is a very loose cannon, spreading chaos. It is true that sometime good things grow out of the chaos of an inconsistent, haphazard factor in a complicated situation. I can see how the Arab states, Iran, and Israel all might be wondering what the hell that mad cowboy is up to, and that maybe they should cool their talk and actions because the madman might do anything at any time. But I suspect that Norway will decide that Trump's announcement that this is a dog-eat-dog world and that rules don't aply anymore, including in Europe, will not sound like peace to them. They remember 1940 and German occupation. Germany was the big, aggressive dog.
Regarding MT's specific examples: Estimates on how much the bombing set back Iran's nuclear program range from a few months to a couple of years (i.e. not much). And anyone who thinks Trump has brought peace to the Middle East isn't paying attention. He may have helped negotiate a ceasefire, but it's already fraying at the edges.
DeleteOpinions differ on how much the military actions in July set back the Iranian nuclear weapons project.
DeleteA lot of attention has been focused on the enriched uranium they already had. That uranium was in the form of uranium hexafluoride, which is a toxic gas that can be used in centrifuges to separate isotopes of uranium. Converting that gas back into a metal, which is what you need for a bomb, is no small task and requires an industrial plant.
Iran had one of those at Isfahan, but as of July they don’t have one anymore. If they try to rebuild it, it will likely just get bombed again. If they try to build a new one underground, that can be bombed or otherwise sabotaged as well.
People with an anti-Trump or anti-Israel attitude will of course denigrate the effectiveness of the military actions of July. But no one can deny the level of intelligence penetration that Israel achieved, or the Israeli and American ability to fly bombers into Iranian airspace at will. Iran is further from getting nukes than they were, and what happened in July can happen again as many times as needed to keep them from getting nukes.
I am not a total fan of Donald Trump. But I also do not suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome. This allows me to recognize when he accomplishes something positive. The Abraham Accords were a positive accomplishment. If Trump manages to expand them now to places like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, that will also be a positive accomplishment.
Trump got the living Israeli hostages out of Gaza. That’s a positive accomplishment. If he gets the dead ones out as well, that will be another one. If he helps install a non-Hamas regime in Gaza, that will count as well.
If all of this happens just because Trump is a scary random actor, so be it. I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth.
But here’s another possibility: the Arab Middle East countries are run by unprincipled nepotistic autocrats. Perhaps in Trump they recognize one of their own, understand his motivations, and feel more comfortable dealing with him than they did with a virtue signaling liberal like Joe Biden. They know that Trump is not going to turn on them all of a sudden because of something or other about “human rights.” Maybe that’s why Trump was able to put together the Abraham Accords. Maybe it’s why he’ll get an extension of them to Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
And if he does, he will deserve that Nobel Peace Prize, regardless of whatever else about him that might irritate people on the left.
FYI: It was tRump’s own Defense Intelligence Agency that estimated Iran’s nuclear program had been set back by “a few months.” The Pentagon later claimed the strikes had set it back by up to two years. Either way, hardly a “huge positive.” As for his Middle East peace plan: “Israel launches strikes on Gaza after Netanyahu orders ‘powerful’ attacks” https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c891ex72nj7t
DeleteThe problem with another term is that he will be 82 years old. He has enough physical problems now. In 3 years what kind of problems will he have? He can hardly walk right now. He's going downhill fast. So, I don't think he will be able to do anything in 2028 except get assistance from an aide. Everyone can readily see that. So, relax everyone. It won't happen.
ReplyDeleteHouse Speaker Mike Johnson said on Tuesday that he does not "see the path" for President Donald Trump to seek a third term.
ReplyDelete"It's been a great run, but I think the president knows, and he and I have talked about, the constrictions of the Constitution, as much as so many of the American people lament that," Johnson said during a news conference on Capitol Hill.
Johnson said he had spoken to Trump Tuesday morning. The president is currently in Japan for a three-country tour through Asia.
"I don't see a way to amend the Constitution because it takes about 10 years to do that," Johnson, a constitutional lawyer, said. "As you all know, to allow all the states to ratify what two-thirds of the House and three-fourths of the states would approve. So I don't, I don't see the path for that, but I can tell you that we are not going to take our foot off the gas pedal."
Time to relax...
ReplyDeleteThis is the news report from yesterday's comments by Trump on Air Force One (source: Axios):
"I guess I'm not allowed to run": Trump concedes third term won't happen
Time to get upset about the next thing that Trump does.
Here is a possibility:
ex-President Trump becomes an advisor to the person who wins in 2028 and is elected President, and that President actually listens to him.
I hope we all realize that the Clintons as well as Barack Obama had the ears of President Biden and VP Harris. And their staffers, too.
I don't know who is going to win in 2028, but we certainly live in interesting times.
Trump, before the election; I don't know anything about Project 2025. Deflection and diversion are his go-to tactics. Quite successful.
ReplyDelete