"You don't understand. I could'a had class. I could have been a contender. I could have been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am. Let's face it."
Marlon Brando, playing Terry Malloy, On The Waterfront
Mike Pence is at a decision point. He could be a contender.
Mike Pence was in the room. He was an eyewitness. He can testify to what Trump said and heard, what he knew, when he knew it, and what he said his intention was. Mike Pence could pick up the phone, call Benni Thompson, the January 6 Committee Chairman, and say he wants to testify on camera now. I would expect his in-person testimony to be devastating to Trump. We already know a great deal about what Trump saw, said, and did. He did much of it on camera and Trump has already bragged about much of it.
Trump may survive these hearings because Trump's behavior was done so openly and shamelessly that many--maybe most-- Republican voters think it is OK. That may change if they hear Pence describe Trump. We know what Pence thinks; he has said it. But we haven't heard it as testimony under oath: Trump wanted me to help him overthrow the election, and I wouldn't because it was illegal, morally wrong, and unconstitutional.
Pence's testimony would stand apart from tell-all authors. He would not be pleading the Fifth Amendment or refusing to cooperate. He would be doing his duty as a citizen who observed a crime. Of course, he would catch hell for it among Republicans. He would be called a back-stabber. He would be accused of lying for political gain, to pave the way for his own presidential ambition. That criticism would be his visible war wounds, the price paid for his courage. The GOP is still Trump's party. A potential outcome would be some version of what is happening now to Liz Cheney. That's a risk. Pence would be beloved, but by all the wrong people. Accolades from Democrats and pundits are worse than worthless if one is trying to ingratiate oneself to the GOP primary electorate.
Public testimony is Pence's best path to the presidency. His testimony might sink Trump. Trump is feared, not loved. Pence's revelations could start a cascade of people abandoning Trump. We saw it happen in the immediate aftermath of the Access Hollywood tape. That time the GOP was stuck with Trump, three weeks before the election. People aren't stuck this time.
Pence is taking a dive. Apparently he won't be testifying publicly. Trump will likely survive and thrive. Republican voters will be able to avert their eyes from Trump's effort to overturn the election. Pence praises Trump for everything but that one little disagreement, and says he would have gone along, if only he could have. This does not condemn seditious intent, only Trump's means.
Pence perhaps imagines himself in Iowa or New Hampshire, in a primary election in 2024 against DeSantis, Cruz, Hawley, Don Junior, and a half dozen others. Pence perhaps imagines himself Trump's logical successor. He isn't. Trump was his own successor and Pence blocked it. He is Trump's enemy. Pence is pulling his punches for no good purpose. He will get booed in New Hampshire and Iowa. Pence is taking a dive for the opportunity to come in fifth in the Iowa caucuses.
His chance to make a clear case against Trump is now. He won't be persuasive doing it later as part of a campaign, explaining that he was a reluctant kill-joy.
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| From: The Wire |
In the words of the Omar Little character from The Wire, "You come at the king, you best not miss." He didn't come at Pence in January, 2021. He did his duty. But as Trump sees it, Pence went after him. That was once.
Pence gets a second chance to be a contender, if he will take it.
11 comments:
Personally, I don't think much of Mike Pence. As a republican, I would never vote for him. If Trump were to hypothetically die tomorrow, then Mike Pence would not become the standard-bearer for the GOP. Next in-line after Trump is Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis is the Crown Prince in-waiting.
Mike Pence could never get elected to a National office by himself. If Pence wants to continue in politics, then he'll need to run in an Indiana state election (or for congress). Pence has little following outside of Indiana. He's about as exciting as drying paint.
If you recall, Trump pulled Pence out of obscurity. Trump wanted someone as a running-mate with Washington DC experience, but he didn't want someone who would overshadow him. He got that in Pence. Pence was Trump's lapdog.
So, Pence might grow some courage, and consider taking-on Trump, but GOP voters would immediately reject Pence as the lightweight that he is.
Perhaps Pence can become a democrat?? Republicans don't want him.
Curt Ankerberg
Medford, OR
If someone supported me being hanged by a mob, I would no longer have any loyalty to that person. Seems to me it’s in his own interest to protect democracy. Is he really brave if he doesn’t testify?
If Pence came forward as you suggest, he'd probably be formidable in 2024. It's plausible that a substantial number of conservatives backed Trump in 2016 because of Pence. His rectitude counterbalanced Trump's odious characteristics. A lot of people say Desantis is the one to beat. Pence could be the one to beat Desantis if he showed some guts now. Otherwise, Pence looks like a chump. Put another way, Pence will be a sad footnote in history unless he comes forward now; if he comes forward, he'll be a profile in courage, and in hindsight he'll realize it wasn't so hard to be courageous in public now, just as he was courageous on January 6th.
Pence isn’t exactly admired by people with real conservative values. Back when he was still in Trump’s corner, he looked more like a department store mannequin than a person. It’s hard to reconcile his acquiescence to Trump’s wanton cruelty – such as his policy of kidnapping asylum-seeker’s children – with an actual human.
Finally, at the end of his term, he refused to do something that would blatantly violate his oath of office. Nowadays, officials who do that put their life at risk, so some consider it heroic. Not Republicans – to them, that makes him a traitor.
Nor is he a hero anymore to his Evangelical community. For the first time in years, he skipped their Faith and Freedom Conference. Trump was there lambasting Pence and others – I guess that’s what Christians do. If Pence were to run in 2024, it’s hard to imagine who his base would be.
Looking ahead, throwback candidates like Mike Pence & DeSantis will greatly motivate Democrats and probably many Independents. Pence is too religious (or at least acts like it) and DeSantis is Ump 2.0. Same goes for Junior.
All 3 would be absolutely dreadful in the White House.
I think what you are suggesting would be earthshaking.
However, timing is everything. This is Pence's moment. As the hearings move on his role, and importance, will be diminished as attention goes elsewhere. At this point no one thinks Pence is any kind of hero for his actions. At best he is praised for "doing his job", something akin to a participation trophy. If he stepped forward now he would become the John Dean of this affair. However, it wouldn't be a principled decision, it would be utterly political, and would have ramifications beyond the hearings. For instance, it would make the split in the party even bigger, and perhaps be the tipping point against Trumpism.
At the moment, the only Republican I see who has a chance against Trump for the presidential nomination is DeSantis, who looks like a sane, competent version of Trump. Pence has all the charisma of a block of margarine.
Different topic than Mike Pence, but I'll bet that a large portion of the people who read this blog collect social security (I do).
Last year, we got a 5.9% increase in our social security payments. In light of the current inflation rate, what do you think that the social security rate increase will be at the end on 2022? 10% (ten percent)? If it's not, then retirees are losing-out big-time to Biden's inflation.
Curt Ankerberg
Medford, OR
As I follow the analogy, anyway, Pence would be more like Terry’s brother and right hand man to Johnny Friendly, Charlie the Gent. Except maybe our Charlie has avoided his hit and is now debating whether to testify. Terry is like a younger go-getter, a better Cawthorn..
Friendly’s part-threatening, part-blustering, part-desperate final dock scene recalls another Budd Schulberg masterstroke, when Lonesome Roads realizes his hold on the public and his posse is gone for good after he’s caught deriding those “rubes” who funded his rise.
On a potentially Trumpless future, I also see DeSantis as the frontrunner, with Tim Scott and Elise Stefanik in the mix, including as veep candidates. The latter two also as a Trump running mate; Scott as a possibility to crucially break with Trump on character grounds.
Dan Crenshaw as a long shot. Or a VP.
Liz would win against all of them. Independents and castrated Republicans and cynical Democrats drowning in the tears of another Biden run would vote for leadership if nothing else.. bombs be damned, go Liz! Just don’t take my social security and Medicare away, weep, weep. I love blondes.
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