The election calendar demands it.
The 2024 campaign is underway.
Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are hurting their parties by hanging onto their roles as party leaders. Ron DeSantis is sending signals that he isn't waiting to follow Trump. He plans on displacing him. Biden could still confound Democrats by running for re-election, but I suspect he won't.
New Hampshire's vote is currently scheduled for the first Tuesday in February. In recent decades, that election has followed the Iowa caucuses. This is now uncertain, at least for Democrats, because the confusion over caucus vote-tallying on election night by Democrats soured the Democratic Party on Iowa. Nevada is jockeying to replace Iowa.
By the spring of 2023 candidates will begin appearing in New Hampshire. By that summer every serious candidate will have made multiple trips to New Hampshire--25 or more individual events. They will also need to make a show of presence at conventions of party activists.
National media will describe the size and enthusiasm of the crowds. Candidates appearing to do well will have six to ten cameras and crews on the scene for each event.
 |
A candidate needs a campaign in the spring of 2023 to pay for operations and communication staff, for website management, for a fundraising operation, and for travel by the candidate to and from New Hampshire, Iowa or Nevada, and South Carolina.
 |
| Even losing campaigns need staff and materials |
A campaign probably needs to lease one or more vehicles as a portable campaign HQ in New Hampshire, and to keep the candidate and crew together as they move from event to event.
 |
| Campaign bus |
A great deal is taking place under the surface. Potential candidates are feeling out the landscape. Candidates have "exploratory" campaigns. Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo accepted invitations to speak at a Faith and Freedom event in Texas, where they got national media attention. To be credible at the "exploratory" phase a candidate needs a pre-existing network of donors and supporters.
Trump is trying to block DeSantis from getting campaign traction.Trump attacks Republicans he thinks are disloyal to him personally, which raises the risk for donors and officeholders who might think to help DeSantis, Pence, Cruz, Hawley, or the others. Biden's announcement that he expects to run means that any Democrat thinking of running must position themself in opposition to Biden--making instant enemies and dividing the party--rather than as the successor to Biden. That is making Democrats hesitate.
Both Democrats and Republicans are waiting impatiently, noticing that the calendar is drawing short.
6 comments:
If Trump doesn’t run, whoever runs in his place will need be as crazy and anti-American as he is to gain the support of his cult: refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of Biden’s presidency, promote crackpot conspiracy theories about election fraud, etc. Ron DeSantis certainly fits the bill, but the QAnon Shaman might have more appeal.
Biden shouldn’t have run in the first place. Running again would in itself be proof that he’s non compis mentis. Nominating a woman of color would not only be historic, but would have great entertainment value: she’d have white-wing conspiracy theorists, i.e. the Trumplican Party, foaming at the mouth and abandoning any pretense of sanity. Stacy Abrams would be even better than Harris.
Personally, I feel that Biden-Harris could win again in 2024, as long as Biden stays as healthy as he is now, (and I do NOT think he is senile or feeble). I do wish they could both get out to the public a bit more on what they are doing. Harris is very active, but the press does not pick up on her activities. I go to her Facebook page to see that she is indeed busy.
I can only hope that trump is damaged goods by that time. None of the republicans you mentioned could have the charisma to overturn Biden.
Just my take.
Is dis a system?
Here's something:
I think you have it backwards.
Republicans are waiting to see if Democrats will indict Trump ("The Democrats are going to take care of the son of a bitch for us.") Until that happens, or doesn't, Republicans are in limbo. Trump will tease a run until the last minute, maybe even start campaigning unless he's stopped cold. I'm not sure even an indictment will hold him back. There's money to be grifted, after all.
The punditry says he won't risk losing which sounds about right. The big question in the media is what's holding up the DOJ?
In the meantime, my guess is Democrats have agreed to run Kamala Harris and by holding off the indictment, which is inevitable in my view, they keep the Republicans from moving forward with an alternate candidate. An indictment in the fall, after the midterms, would mean a trial a year later. Just about every other Republican hopeful would be called to testify, as well as that great new band "Rudy and the Proud Boys".
I so agree that Presidrnt Biden needs to let go of his Party Leadership role, and become a Senior Stateman. As does Nancy Pelosi. Should the President appear on my Primary Ballot in 2024,I will not vote for him, or support his Candidacy , but vote for any other remotely qualified Democratic Candidate.
Looking for a Democratic candidate that can beat the GQP nominee, the party of conspiracy theories, alternate facts and wing nuts, with a few exceptions. If there is a Democratic primary, maybe someone will attack Kamala Harris the way that she attacked Joe Biden during the debates. (I can't remember if she did that more than once. Maybe it was twice.)
Post a Comment