More trouble for Biden

Justin Amash is running for president as a Libertarian.  He will be on the ballot nationwide.

Justin Amash

It gives left libertarians an alternative to Biden.

Amash won't get a lot of votes, but he can get a few votes in places that would tip the election to Trump. 

Donald Trump unifies Republicans. Democrats are fractured.

Trump gets a few things exactly right for Republicans. He appoints anti-abortion judges and stands by his appointments. He cuts taxes and regulations on businesses. He identifies with the goals of the Republican tribe. 

Most important, the Republican base is unified  in disliking AOC and the Squad, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, the idea of “socialism”, Bernie Sanders, and college town woke values. The ads in this blog's post yesterday make that point, focusing on opposition to and resentment of urban liberal Democrats. They know they are being pressured by progress and are considered to be racist, xenophobic, and homophobic, and they resent being criticized for feeling the way they feel. 

Attacks on Trump don't weaken Trump. They prove his case, that people are out to get him and the people he fights for. Justin Amash's addition as a critic just shows what a multi front war Trump wages. Amash's entry strengthens Trump.

Meanwhile,Democrats are fractured. Trump energizes them but does not unify them. Trump proves we have bad governance, but he doesn't channel the solution. Amash hurts Biden by giving libertarians within the left a place to cast a conscientious vote.

There are several main themes within the left, and Biden represents the biggest one, liberals. The center-left majority of Democrats are FDR-LBJ-Clinton-Obama type Democrats. They believe in markets, but want safety nets and social programs. They are community minded and want social sharing, but they understand that different people have different levels of ambition and ability and they want work to be rewarded and indolence to be discouraged. They want reforms but not revolution. They are not at war with rich people. 

There is also a Sanders-oriented group, Democratic Socialists, who are angry at the market economy and how lopsided its results can be. They are left communitarians. They believe the system is rigged to protect the rich and cheat the majority, so they want more public sharing of the risks and rewards. It favors Scandinavian style socialism. Sanders just endorsed Biden, and some of his supporters will vote for Biden. The ones that don't will not be attracted to Amash. Amash is their opposite.

Jacobin Magazine

Amash will appeal to left libertarians. The left is not entirely collectivist-oriented people. The libertarian left are people unhappy with Biden and government generally because they think it invades their personal space. They often oppose vaccinations. They home school or find left-oriented private schools because they oppose government-imposed conformity. They oppose drug laws. They oppose the post 9-11 Patriot Act rules on banking and other privacy invasions. They worry about pesticides and eat organic food. They may be vegan.  Many are pacifist or anti-war opponents of government. They don't like the police, and they know that Google, Facebook, FBI, CIA, and military are tracking them.

Biden's establishment liberalism is exactly what left-libertarians dislike. He represents supposedly-compassionate government that feels entitled--indeed responsible-- to teach and vaccinate their children, fight good wars, and protect society from the scourge of drugs and care for them. The more communitarian Biden shifts to accommodate the Sanders-oriented communitarian left, the more Biden will lose the libertarian left.

In a landslide, it won't matter. In a close election, Amish will cost Biden.

Republican Congressional Candidates Squabble

Mud Wrestling in Oregon--A Campaign Ad Sampler

Abortion. Carpetbagger. Outside Money. Authenticity.

Click: Atkinson calls the campaign mud wrestling

Oregon's 2nd Congressional District is considered "safely red." It is mostly rural. Think Idaho, not coastal urban. Greg Walden is retiring, as I long ago predicted, and that makes a free for all among Republican candidates. 

Knute Buehler, a Bend physician, came into the race the best known. He had run statewide twice and lost, being swamped by the Democratic votes in the Portland area. He positioned himself in those two races as a moderate, pro-choice, bipartisan, Trump-skeptical Republican. He opposed the Kavanaugh nomination to the Supreme Court. 

That was then. Now he attempts to repackage himself as a down-the-line standard-issue pro-Trump Republican, suitable now for this Republican district's primary. His ad takes the safe approach of criticizing the things rural Oregon Republicans are presumed not to like about Democrats: Portland itself, "Portland liberals," Kate Brown, Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, AOC, "cap and trade schemes," "government takeover of health care," "DC elites," bureaucracy. 

Click: The new Knute Buehler

Meanwhile, three other Republicans have credible campaigns: Jason Atkinson, a former State Senator from Central Point; Cliff Bentz, a State Senator from the eastern and most rural part of the District, who just resigned his office to campaign for this one; and Jimmy Crumpacker, a candidate who calls himself "NOT a politician," who recently moved from Portland to Bend.

Knute Buehler may win, but he is not a consensus candidate. He is not anti-abortion. That changes everything.

Click: new YouTube ad

Cliff Bentz, has the support of the Trump-oriented grass-roots organizer Sam Carpenter, whose Facebook organization has 90,000-plus friends. Bentz emphasizes his authentic rural roots. He is anti-abortion and it is the first element of this ad, "Like President Trump, Cliff Bentz will protect the unborn."

Click: Cliff Bentz introduction ad

Bentz's basic theme is that he is the real 2nd District guy, the one who fits the area, the regular, no-surprise Republican.

Jason Atkinson is the son of Perry Atkinson, a religious broadcaster and the former Chair of the State Republican Party. Jason Atkinson and his father have impeccable multi-decade credibility as warriors on the anti-abortion issue. Jason Atkinson is a fisherman and has worked to be a unifier on water issues, which means that Atkinson projects an image of bi-partisan good government practicality. This is out of touch with the Trump-style Republican brand of in-your-face confrontation and anger with the Democratic urban liberal enemy. On social issues, Atkinson is perfect, but he may not be pugnacious enough in style to attract Republican primary voters in a multi-candidate race.

Click: Atkinson betrayed by Right to Life

Meanwhile, father Perry Atkinson, is heartsick with disappointment that decades of work in the trenches of anti-abortion action was discarded in favor of a newcomer with no actual record of support for anti-abortion causes. He and son Jason had earned the support of Oregon Right to Life. 

Jason Atkinson has two commercials I have located, the one at the top of this post and this one, which complains that the governor's virus stay at home order is too extreme, that people want to go back to work: 

Click: Virus shutdown too extreme

Jimmy Crumpacker, the wealthy newcomer to the District, just won the endorsement of the Oregon Right to Life organization and its PAC, and therefore its huge mailing list and organization. Their conclusion: Jimmy Crumpacker has the money to win the primary and genuine anti-abortion voters needed to consolidate behind one candidate or else Buehler would win. That meant abandoning old friends and adopting a new one. "The entry of a formidable, self-described '100% pro-choice' candidate, Knute Buehler, into the race made a sole endorsement by ORTL PAC necessary."

Right to Life endorsement

Crumpacker's primary edge, as he voiced it to me in a one-on-one interview, was his ability to self-finance from family and friends and that he had Trump-friendly positions on issues.  

Crumpacker has a big TV presence. He has multiple ads up. They are overtly oriented toward creating name familiarity, with multiple repetitions of his name, linking it to "Trump backer." "gun packer," and sending "Immigrants packing." 

Here are some examples of his ads:

Click: Announcement ad. Cleared brush on family farm.

Click: "I do back Trump's agenda 100%"

Meanwhile, Anyone but Crumpacker. There are well produced ads up saying Crumpacker is an out-of-touch Portland heir, living in his parents' home in Bend, with an opaque work history, a big donor to gay-friendly Portland ballet, and has no legitimate roots in the District.

Examples: 

Click: "What does Crumpacker really do in his spare time?"

Click: Rich Portland elitist buying election

Click: Phony. Anyone but Crumpacker

The ads above have no clear campaign source, and may have been done by a freelance citizen, expressing a First Amendment point of view, not funded by a campaign.

This ad, however, has many of the same elements of style and content is identified as a Knute Buehler ad:

Click: Buehler ad opposing Crumpacker

Who is winning?  Oregon Right to Life's decision was made on the basis of a calculation that the race was between pro-choice Knute Buehler with name familiarity and a record of having successfully raised $20 million in a governor's race, versus an anti-abortion candidate and that Crumpacker was the single most electable of the three. Therefore they concentrated their support on him. He may in fact be the strongest candidate but the carpetbagger issue has traction.  Eastern and Southern Oregon politicians run against Portland and its influence.

Crumpacker will be easy to portray as a Portland phony, pretending to be local, and that attack is underway.

Buehler will be easy to portray as a pro-choice moderate phony, pretending to be a good Republican, and that attack is underway as well.

"The stakes are higher than ever before."

     "My father and his re-election campaign are all that stand between the revenge-hungry, far-left extremist party of SOCIALISTS and their goal of rolling back all of the Trump Administration's pro-American conservative policies."

     Donald Trump, Jr.  Fundraising letter received April 28

A close look at a fundraising pitch.

Normally right now I would be participating in the on-air pledge drive of my local public radio station, Jefferson Public Radio. The virus intervened.  

I have been helping the JPR pledge drive for three decades and have some insight on what makes the phones ring with donations. The solicitations use the tools of importance, urgency, membership, and recognition.

Were I on air I would be telling people that our public radio network is valuable to them, evidenced by the fact that they are listening now. We say the pledge window is short, so please give now. We tell them that by donating they become "members" of the station's listeners' guild. We tell people we would love to recognize them on the air. 

I just got my daily fundraising solicitation from the Trump campaign. On entry at events volunteers get your name, zip code, phone number and email. That gets you on the fundraising lists. I get two letters from the Trump campaign every day.

Urgency

The solicitations use those familiar tools of importance, urgency, membership, and recognition. The Trump campaign targets presumed strong supporters. The solicitation is not a "bridge builder" to Democrats or swing voters. The word "important" does not do justice to the stakes said to be involved. It is a matter of life and death, freedom or tyranny. America has a sworn enemy, Democrats:

     "Democrats long for a country that will tolerate absolutely no dissent from their extremist socialist agenda, and they will do anything to ensure the people who voted for my father are unable to organize again."

Responding is urgent. There is an "April-End-of-Month Deadline" with a need "to absolutely CRUSH our $5,000,000 goal. but we can't do it without you." So there is a triple match! 

A ten dollar contribution means $40. A $20 contribution means $80. There is a deadline for getting in on this great opportunity.

Donations to the campaign change ones status, from mere voter and supporter to member of a group, people who will receive special notice of news and opportunities to advance the cause.

And there is recognition from President Trump himself. "I'm sending my father a list of everyone who steps up to help us reach our $5 MILLION GOAL. Will he see your name, Friend?" Yesterday's solicitation said, "Don’t worry, there is still time to make sure President Trump knows that you stand with him in his fight to Keep America Great." 


The other solicitation. The second email is a shopping list for merchandise, with special offers of MAGA hats, Trump belt buckles, flags, bobble heads, bottle openers, and commemorative coins. These are not presented as campy or ironic. They are to be worn with pride. 

This coin is the JFK half dollar, with a colorized image of Trump replacing Kennedy's profile, tabled Donald J. Trump "The Chosen One." They are available for $16.97.

The public radio station reserves the pledge drive to one week bursts, twice a year. The Trump solicitation engine is simultaneously messaging and fundraising. Democrats are tyrants. Biden is senile. Democrats are socialists. AOC will take away your beef, cars, and liberties. It goes on every day, direct from Trump to the voter, reminding them that it not just Trump who is under attack, it is them, by the Democratic and media elites:

"The Chosen One"

"The Fake News is working hard with their Democrat partners in the hope of TAKING DOWN YOUR PRESIDENT. This has never just been an attack on me. It’s really an attack on YOU."

The problem with defending Judge Greif

It isn't just the shocking texts by Judge Lisa Greif. 

It was her judicial misbehavior, revealed in her own words.

Someone spoke up for Judge Greif in a letter to the editor of the local newspaper yesterday.  

No discussion of Greif's re-election can avoid the elephant in the room, her text messages saying she wanted to kill or body slam a colleague. They also show her secret involvement assisting a litigant using what Greif called her "moles." They came to light in the discovery process of a court case involving a nonprofit organization providing services to her court. 

They caused an uproar. Lawyers called for her to resign, as did editorials in local newspapers.

Dr. Kerri Hecox wrote a letter to the editor supporting Greif, who is running for re-election this May. This is the first such letter I have noticed.

 Dr. Hecox wrote:

     "I am aware of the publication of Judge Greif's private text messages. I viewed the news coverage for what it was: public airing of private thoughts. I think if any of us were to have our private thoughts/conversations published on certain subjects we might wish we had said things differently. My experience with Judge Greif is that her public life is devoted to public service, which is what I look for in an elected official."

That may be Dr. Hecox's experience, and I am happy for Judge Greif that she has friends and supporters who stand by her, and happy that Dr. Hecox's experience was a good one. But it is not the experience of people whose lives were affected by the behavior revealed in Greif's own words. Nor is it the experience of the court system itself.

Greif gets a defender

Greif and her friends have advanced various excuses for her behavior. Greif has said she is sorry and won't do this again. She has said her offenses were now over two years prior, and she is a better person now. She misled viewers on KOBI-TV Five on Five interview by minimizing her behavior.

Dr. Hecox is positing a different tack, that the texts are irrelevant because they revealed private thoughts not Greif's public life. That is incorrect.

The messages revealed by the lawsuit's discovery process do in fact involve several that are personal and gossipy regarding food, drink, friends, and enemies. They would be embarrassing to Judge Greif and would have great entertainment value had I revealed them. I deleted those. 

The text messages I reported are ones that bear directly upon her public role as a judge because they reveal judicial misbehavior that affects the impartiality and credibility of the court system. That makes them of public interest. 

1. A judge is expected to be impartial in both deed and appearance. Her texts reveal that she was actively, but secretly, assisting a litigant extract a higher settlement by organizing the feeding of "dirt to a "mole" in the local media as part of that litigant's media strategy.

2. A judge is expected to maintain respect for the court system. Her multiple texts insulting a fellow judge were addressed to a person who regularly appeared before that judge as a court witness.

3. A judge is prohibited from using the prestige and power of the office for the private use of herself or her friends. The texts reveal her intent to hush an employee who was speaking in opposition to the interests of Greif's litigant friend. ("I will alert some of the DAs.") Judge Greif was a former board member of an organization that competes for funding with OnTrack, the organization being sued by her friend, and the one Judge Greif was attempting to destroy.

4. Any employer--in this case the public--has a duty to assure the safety conditions of a workplace put into question when an employee puts in writing thoughts of killing or assaulting a fellow employee.

Click: see and read the original texts verbatim

Greif's behavior is not supposition or guesswork. The texts are a confession. Her actions are admitted, even celebrated, by Judge Greif herself. "Those bitches are going down!" Greif wrote. The exclamation mark was Greif's. She was not a reluctant participant, dragged into someone else's plot. Greif was doing it herself, she did it for months, and her texts reveal she was loving it.

Formal Complaints Filed. I am aware of at least two attorneys who have spoken publicly about filing formal complaints to Oregon's Judicial Fitness Commission, concluding that this behavior was improper: retired judge Phil Arnold and attorney Michael Brian. At the urging of another senior jurist, I, too, filed a complaint. I am aware of at least one additional one from an attorney.

Judge Greif is not in trouble because of the personal gossip she shared. She is in trouble because her texts self-report behaviors that undermine the impartiality and credibility of the court system.

Note:

Multiple attorneys have warned me it is dangerous to criticize a sitting judge. They have ways to make trouble for anyone, especially an attorney and their clients, I have been warned. I know many attorneys. I am married to one. Nobody but me decides what goes into this blog, most certainly not my wife. She doesn't ask about this blog and she doesn't even read it. 

In 2008 my family made a $500 political contribution to Judge Greif in her contested election.

Humor Sunday

Today, two videos, both well done.

Click: 50 seconds

They are a one-two punch at Trump. 

Satire:
The first one mocks Trump, but in a way less likely than usual to trigger offense from Trump supporters and the swing vote Trump-curious.

It is cute, not nasty.

Comedian Sarah Cooper did a lip sync duplication of some of Donald Trump's comments on disinfectants. Trump's voice is paired with her face and body. She nails the lip sync so perfectly that she appears to be the speaker, making Trump's comments seem weird and laughable on their face--in this case, her face.

It is done for humor, and Cooper is an attractive young woman, which, put together, takes away the meanness, leaving just the absurdity.

I consider this to be very effective political satire.

Click, watch, be amused.


Uplift: "One America."

The theme of this ad is American unity. The ad is constructed in a familiar way, with scenes of skyscrapers, bridges, and national monuments, which then segues into hospital and other health care workers and people applauding of them. 

America, can't we all get along? 

Firefighters applauding hospital workers

Biden: "Hard as it is to believe, maybe something good can come out of this terrible crisis. Maybe this crisis will help us see how much our broken politics has cost us. The anger. The insults. The divisiveness. And maybe it will help us see the power of what we can get done together."


This ad does not project Biden as a commander, as a pillar of strength. This is not Hector vs. Achilles, two equal warriors in a contest of power. Trump wins those contests. Biden has changed the contest.

The ad risks being so soft focus nice to be totally forgettable. It is political mush, Mr Nice Guy fluff. The ad has a single simple idea, peace and unity. That's what Biden offers. The alternative is Trump.

Trump discovered that Republicans, stirred up by the Tea Party, had developed a taste for a good, hard fight. Take the battle to the Democrats. Make the libs cry. Tell the woke scolds that this is America, that we are proud to be white, or male, or Christian, or born here in America, or drive a pickup, or own a gun, or prefer the company of people like ourselves, and we refuse to be embarrassed or be called deplorable because of who we are. Republicans decided they were in a war against the dominant culture, a culture defined by financial and cultural elites, and finding themselves there, they were going to win it by backing a fighter, Trump.

Click: "One America." 2 1/2 minutes

The ad rejects the premise. 

Biden is the nominee because Democrats chose him over Sanders. Democrats wanted unity and peace. The ad puts out there the expectation that a majority of voters want to end the civil war. The harsher and nastier Trump is--and he will be harsh and nasty--the more it may serve to prove the Biden case, that Trump is all about division. Americans may be sick and tired of that.

If the goal is unity, not victory, then Biden isn't "sleepy," weak, or a bad fighter losing a war. He would be the clear-eyed one, the Commander in Chief leading toward victory in the war we actually want won, the war to re-unify our country.

Tara Reade

Democrats: the female accuser is always right. 

Stormy Daniels tells her story. No matter.

This is just beginning for Biden. It won't end.

Trump has teflon on issues of women because Trump has his story down pat, and the story fits the Republican brand.  It is the opposite for Biden

Trump denies every accusation, indignantly, and insults the woman while doing it. There are literally dozens of accusers. It doesn't hurt him. His team knows that he is their man. Male voters reward him. Married white women do as well, identifying with their husbands' interest in protection from accusation. People can consider that a woman in a position to complain must have been in some way asking for trouble, sending off flirty signals, or being where she shouldn't have been. Republicans believed Kavanaugh.

The Access Hollywood--grab them by the pussy--tape was shocking in its vulgarity but it, didn't finish off Trump. It, too, fit a traditional notion of men as natural sexual adventurers, on the prowl. It was the nature of men--of males--to be constantly sniffing the air for signals of sexual opportunity. That is the nature of the sexes and biology. Guy want sex; good girls said "no" and were clear about their virtue. 

Democrats have a constituency of people who reject that notion of blame and compromise.  Biden hammers this point in his town halls: respect women, never pressure women, men must behave, no means no. It is Democratic orthodoxy. A corollary of that orthodoxy is that when a woman complains the man must, by definition, have misbehaved, because offense is defined by the woman's sense of boundaries, not the man's. "What happened," is not defined by some objective reality. "What happened" is what the woman perceives. A corollary of that is that any man who objects to the accusation is dishonestly attacking a truth-telling woman, victimizing her once again, disrespecting her sense of boundaries, asserting male privilege.

We see how this works. As Elizabeth Warren asked of Bernie Sanders, "Did you call me a liar on national television?" No win.

Here it comes: 

Below is the Fox News introduction page this morning.  Eight of the nine stories are about Tara Reade's accusation. 

8 of 9

The Trump-GOP-Fox line of attack is visible here: 

    ****Prod Sanders' supporters to shun Biden.

    ****Fan the flames of feminist suspicions.

    ****Criticize the media for coddling Biden.

    ****Criticize Democratic hypocrisy.

Any Democrat would get some version of this. Trump's 2016 election was carried on the back of the demonization of Crooked Hillary. Donald Trump does not want this election to be a referendum on him. It must be a a choice. 

Democrats should count on this, incorporate it into their thinking, and plan their campaigns accordingly. By election day Trump and his media allies will have shown Biden to be a dangerous, corrupt, morally compromised person, one who is worse--far, far worse--than Trump on any measure of fitness.

Drink Bleach

Yesterday's post: 

     "a welcome change from trying to predict whether Donald Trump's antics are helping his re-election chances."

                    Herb Rothschild, comment on yesterday's post

Twitter commentary

I am back at it. There is so much material.

Trump doing something so improbable and ridiculous it requires explanation.  Surely this time he has gone too far.

Yesterday the president of the United States suggested injecting disinfectants into a COVID-19 patient. Alternatively, he said, maybe we could just shine light on a patient, maybe ultraviolet light, and that would be a quick cure. Disinfectant "knocks it out in a minute, one minute."

Democrats are having fun with this. It is an archetypal Trump experience. Trump is rambling, moving on from pitching hydroxychloroquine to suggesting other potential quick fixes. He heard scientists say sunlight and bleach kills viruses on metal playground equipment. He needed to chime in. Maybe we could just drink some, he suggested. Or inject it. The professional people around him attempt a steely face respectful silence as they hear him put this out there.

Click: Dr. Birx reaction to Trump. 50 secs.

There are multiple stories here worth consideration, and the video link adjacent focuses not on Trump, but on Dr. Deborah Birx. Birx and Andrew Fauci join a growing list of advisors who understand they must bite their tongue, be careful not to contradict Trump directly, and serve their consciences and country by sweeping up behind him, fixing his errors, minimizing his damage. They will clarify and expand, not contradict. 

Her face is eloquent, yet another example of the brutal honesty of body language. Watch and listen. There is no question what she is thinking. It's irresponsible, dangerous quackery by Trump. Will people people start sipping bleach? One can read her face, thinking, "When will he stop. What a mess to clean up."

Surely this must be bad politics for Trump, another devastating nail in his political coffin.

I think not. 

One simple trick. Americans did not invent the idea that there is some marvelous and powerful outside force that sweeps in to resolve a story or situation, the deus ex machina. Humans believe in miracles. Quarterbacks throw a "Hail Mary." Cartoon Superman and Mighty Mouse sweep in to save the day. I get a popup ad every single day telling me "You can cure your toenail fungus with this one simple trick."  

This morning the Huffington Post--which leads with the featured article mocking Trump for his dangerous simplistic solution--has two stories just below the lead, one saying that stretching is the simple answer to your virus stress and anxiety, and another recommending deep breathing as the simple solution to lung congestion from COVID-19. Simple.

Americans learned an implicit lesson coming out World War Two and the next decade: firepower and invention. Somewhere there is a scientist with the answer, be it an atomic bomb or a vaccine. It might be right under our noses. 

Trump lacks the eloquence of Franklin Roosevelt, but each have the same message of hope and persistence. FDR: "The country needs, and unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all try something."

Democrats see a dangerous blithering idiot. Dr. Birx sees a problem to sweep up. But a great many Americans will see a president open to anything, maybe grasping at straws but if straws are all there are, then, sure, grasp at them. They see an optimist, impatient to get back to normal, someone wanting to look under every rock. We may already have invented the solution, and what with all the already-approved medicines out there, surely one of them does something. Or bleach.

Answer:  Yes.

It is so easy to make Trump look silly that Democrats could mis-read this one. Democrats could come across as mean spirited and condescending. Worse, they could re-affirm themselves as the Party of "No." No hope. No change. No get well. No go back to work. Not willing to try stuff.

Trump looks ridiculous, but he looks ridiculous trying to get people healthy and back to work. The fact that Democrats are making a fuss over it will make sure that Trump's suggested experiments will be noticed.

Net-net, this is probably good for Trump. 

Tipping Point

Death Trap

Big changes are set in motion. 

In 1972 Chinese Premier Zhoe Enlai was asked about the effects of the French Revolution. "Too early to tell," he answered.

The story got around quickly. So wise, people agreed. In fact, it was a misunderstanding. He thought the question was about the student riots in Paris in 1968. Four years, not two hundred years, were not enough time, he meant. 

His original response is the one that is remembered and enjoyed for its profundity. Human events are path dependent. One things leads to another to another to another.

So these predictions are two hundred years early.

1. Downtown urban real estate will be re-priced downward, now, then forever.

High prestige tall buildings are temporarily understood to be pools of infection. Ten, fifty, seventy story buildings were previously desirable places for professionals, a corner office on a high floor proof of success. Now their offices, lobbies, common areas, and especially their elevators are understood to be virus traps. Dangerous for the senior partners, a lawsuit liability as it involves employees told to come in to work. Now the lowliest of spaces, an empty one story vacant store front in a nondescript strip mall outside the central city would be more usable as office space. This is a reversal of fortune that will never quite end, because it led to something: increased and normalization of telecommuting.

2. Telecommuting for professionals.  The shutdown accelerated immersion into virtual meetings, and people have coped. It works pretty well. Much of the in-office interaction and communication had already migrated to electronic notes, and instant messages replaced slips of paper, but this was showtime.  It saves a commute and public transportation is another danger. People will still meet physically.  New and junior employees need the proximity and interaction of group settings to establish culture, and supervision is easier when people are nearby, but the leadership of organizations, and much of its prior paperwork, can move off site much of the time. Telecommuting has gone from exception to rule,

3. Electronic public meetings. The technology has improved. Video conferencing has become easy enough to do that novices and the general public can have satisfactory experiences through virtual meetings. Americans experienced sudden immersion. Political meetings, service club meetings, church meetings, non-profit and civic meetings are taking place electronically. As organizers learn new presentation skills, like how to integrate power point slides into presentations, people will see them as viable, sometimes much better, alternatives to getting together. 

4. Universal health care. The virus presents a confluence of multiple forces: People are sick; it is a contagious disease, so there is public interest in the health of others; people are made jobless by government order; health care is connected to employment; the pandemic is described as a war against an invader against us all, calling for a time of unity and sacrifice. This pushes reset. The political system is allowed to change dug-in positions.

Trump just announced that uninsured people with COVID-19 would have their expenses paid directly to health care providers by the government at Medicare rates. This is Medicare for All, at least for this disease, announced by a Republican. It isn't universal health care, but it is a start, and it comes at a time when Americans are re-defining more and more jobs as essential for public safety: health care workers, food growers and distributors, delivery people, and more. People realized that we count on the system that delivers toilet paper to our stores. We count on others being healthy to show up for work. That re-defines the debate. 

5. Public utility socialism. Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman put it this way, quoted on CNBC: "When government is called upon to protect you on the downside, they have every right to regulate you on the upside. So capitalism is changed."  In the financial crisis of 2008-2009 both presidents Bush and Obama protected the financial system, which meant bailing out banks, which left their structures intact. It may have been good policy, but it was terrible politics.

The result was populist uprising, the Tea Party which evolved into Trump on the right, and Occupy Wall Street and Bernie Sanders on the left.  Politicians learned, and will insist of visible prices to be exacted from companies experiencing a bailout. Airlines may be re-defined as transportation utilities. it won't stop there.

The public is barely aware of the extraordinary support the Fed has given to corporations by buying corporate debt in the secondary market to support prices and provide liquidity. This included high yield debt, now put on the Fed's balance sheet. In time the consequences of this will be understood. The public will want to be repaid.

Meanwhile, the oil industry has shrunk to less than 3% of the SP500. The world has cheap oil. The government, and eventually the public, will realize that regular and reliable flow of oil and natural gas from producers to utilities and refineries for motor fuel are essential to the well being of the economy. Exxon and Chevron will survive, but possibly as public utilities, coddled and regulated.

This is just a start. If the future were imaginable we would have all bought Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple when they were tiny. Who knew?