Which Republicans could trigger an impeachment avalanche?
I identify nine.
"The Never Trumper Republicans, though on respirators with not many left, are in certain ways worse and more dangerous for our Country than the Do Nothing Democrats. Watch out for them, they are human scum!"
Trump Tweet
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The most dangerous people are not the Never Trumpers. The dangerous people to Trump are people who represent political movement, people who change to favor impeachment.
Justin Amash, Republican Congressman from Michigan, announced he favored impeachment, and then changed his party affiliation to Independent.
That's one. One is not a movement. This defines Amash as an outlier and traitor. He is not leading a movement. The people with the visibility and credibility to define Republicanism are Senators.
Mitt Romney could easily announce he supports impeachment. He isn't up for election, and he has little to fear electorally. Trump offends Utah values; Romney exemplifies them. It would be an easy vote, and indeed would affirm and enhance his brand: the principled, square jawed hero.
That's one. One is not a movement. This defines Amash as an outlier and traitor. He is not leading a movement. The people with the visibility and credibility to define Republicanism are Senators.
Mitt Romney could easily announce he supports impeachment. He isn't up for election, and he has little to fear electorally. Trump offends Utah values; Romney exemplifies them. It would be an easy vote, and indeed would affirm and enhance his brand: the principled, square jawed hero.
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The fact that Romney has not led on this when he could is a statement in itself.
To be a leader, not an outlier, one needs followers. If three or four Republican senators joined Mitt Romney then each would have the cover of demonstrating that there is a body of Republicans who support impeachment. It would signify that those people aren't Republican heretics or turncoats. They would be team players, playing on a new version of the Republican team, the "principled Republican team." They could praise Mike Pence, and call it a restoration of Republican virtue. It would signify a choice of directions, not abandonment of the team.
To be a leader, not an outlier, one needs followers. If three or four Republican senators joined Mitt Romney then each would have the cover of demonstrating that there is a body of Republicans who support impeachment. It would signify that those people aren't Republican heretics or turncoats. They would be team players, playing on a new version of the Republican team, the "principled Republican team." They could praise Mike Pence, and call it a restoration of Republican virtue. It would signify a choice of directions, not abandonment of the team.
Romney surely would be first.
Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, and Martha McSally of Arizona are all up for re-election in states where Trump is somewhat unpopular. Pundits look at them as potential votes for impeachment I think that is wrong.
If they were to announce they favored impeachment, would they gain any Democratic votes? I expect not. Democrats already have a good candidate. Democrats would think it was an overdue conversion. Would they lose Republican enthusiasm and votes? Almost certainly. No gain, lots of pain--a losing strategy. These are not the low hanging fruit.
If they were to announce they favored impeachment, would they gain any Democratic votes? I expect not. Democrats already have a good candidate. Democrats would think it was an overdue conversion. Would they lose Republican enthusiasm and votes? Almost certainly. No gain, lots of pain--a losing strategy. These are not the low hanging fruit.
Who could do it, out of principle and brand consistency? People like Mitt Romney, people with low risk for doing it.
Lamar Alexander, Mike Enzi, and Johnny Isakson are retiring from office and they were among the seven people who refused to sign onto Lindsay Graham's resolution to condemn the impeachment probe. They could do it. No senator wants to think of himself as a soldier, loyal to a self serving leader. Senators have pride. They want to think of themselves as statesmen. It would be on-brand. It would follow a pattern, that the people who publicly oppose Trump are the ones leaving office: Bob Corker and Jeff Flake. It is a way to go out head held high.
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| Lisa Murkowski |
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is one more. She could do it, especially with the cover of company. She is not running this year, and her brand includes being principled and independent of Trump. She voted against repeal of the ACA and the Brett Kavanaugh elevation to the Supreme Court.
That would be five.
If Romney could lead a delegation of five, consider how the political environment would be changed. Now the news stories would be "Republican revolt" and the teams would be "Trump loyalists" vs. "Principled Republicans." A choice, a comparison.
Consider what that would mean for someone like Susan Collins, who has a tight race in Maine. Now her calling for impeachment would switch from signifying she is abandoning her team into signifying she is a principled senator joining the team of principled Republicans.
"Principle" is a better brand than "turncoat." And if Collins goes, then Gardner, McSally, and Ernst can do it.
Consider what that would mean for someone like Susan Collins, who has a tight race in Maine. Now her calling for impeachment would switch from signifying she is abandoning her team into signifying she is a principled senator joining the team of principled Republicans.
"Principle" is a better brand than "turncoat." And if Collins goes, then Gardner, McSally, and Ernst can do it.
Will this happen? I expect not. I don't think Romney can get people to join him. I don't know if he has had closed door visits with them to plan the mutiny. Still, there were seven senators who rejected Lindsay Graham's Senate Resolution, so there is potential there. And if he gets to three or four he can get to nine.
Bankruptcies, dam failures, and an impeachment happen the same way: gradually, and then suddenly. At this point we are waiting for Romney to decide how he wants to be remembered: as the feckless loser who lost an election and then was powerless in the Senate, steamrolled by Trump, or as the hero who brought integrity and principle back to the GOP and America.
Bankruptcies, dam failures, and an impeachment happen the same way: gradually, and then suddenly. At this point we are waiting for Romney to decide how he wants to be remembered: as the feckless loser who lost an election and then was powerless in the Senate, steamrolled by Trump, or as the hero who brought integrity and principle back to the GOP and America.
Peter’s Approach is Exactly Right-- Focus on the Jurors
ReplyDeletePeter's post cuts right to the heart of the future of the impeachment effort and Trump's reelection prospects-- it's all about the jurors, i.e. senators. Jurors decide who is more harmful to society, a lawless citizen or a lawless cop; or which is more valuable to a community, employees reporting wrongdoing or executives growing businesses and jobs. GOP senators will decide if its better or worse for America that Trump’s presidency continues or ends. Three compelling questions will determine if Republican senators vote to end Trump: (1) Are Trump's accusers themselves innocent of wrongdoing; (2) was Trump’s misconduct far outside our expectations of him when he was elected; and (3) would GOP senators by removing Trump protect the rule of law in its broader form or simply reward lawless Democrats?
Two precedents are predictive: (1) Cavanaugh’s confirmation trial, and (2) the Mueller special counsel investigation that acquitted Trump of Russian collusion, and found lack of jurisdiction over obstruction of justice. The humiliating failure of Democrats on both has seriously eroded trust in the media that a winning impeachment effort requires. Cavanaugh's conduct as a high school and college undergrad presented GOP senators with no politically credible issues as to “the rule of law”. The Mueller investigation proved nothing—not even obstruction-- by the clear and convincing evidence that Republican senators will demand. Nor has any Trump misdeed I’m aware of been far outside the nation’s expectations of him. America knowingly elected a dirty street fighter famous for dodging indictment to achieve his ends, and he won’t be removed for delivering exactly that to his GOP base.
More consequentially, in the Cavanaugh and Mueller precedents the accusers were themselves tainted by the overtly partisan prosecution—i.e. Democrats bent on 2016 revenge under a false flag of “the rule of law” that the GOP wasn’t buying. It will be the same with impeachment. House Democrats who’ve screamed for impeachment literally foaming at the mouth from day one have zero credibility in the Senate. It’s undisputed that Biden's son was getting rich in the Ukraine while the Vice President demanded removal of the prosecutor investigating the company making his kid rich. “It was not illegal” is no defense but a Trump defense. As to protecting the rule of law, removing Trump would insure election of a secularist, socialist or anti-capitalist Democrat whose campaign pledges threaten GOP orthodoxy that God and Capitalism are the cornerstones of our constitutional democracy, indeed of the rule of law itself. Thus, even if Trump is guilty of “quid pro quo” in “the Ukraine”, hesitant GOP senators will easily reason that it’s absurd to lay claim to saving the republic by installing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders in the oval office. Call it acquittal, call it jury nullification, the GOP Senate removing Trump from office is a self-destructive Democratic fantasy.
A failed impeachment will strengthen Trump's reelection bid by giving him his biggest win yet. The GOP will turn it into a trial of Joe and Hunter Biden, the FBI adulterers, Comey leaks, the IG report against FBI officials, and the new DOJ “Durham criminal probe” of Obama’s intelligence chiefs for spying on the Trump campaign. It may be better for Trump to have Romney and a few other GOP “traitors” proving that the war against corrupt political elites and their lawless hoaxes is bipartisan. If Trump’s presidency is to end, it won’t be by the GOP Senate. If he is reelected, the failed impeachment will go down in history as a major factor in Democratic defeat.