Informal poll: Not Trump.
"Dislike for a candidate does not equate with support for the just any Democratic opponent."
Stephen Koster, a Massachusetts lawyer, becomes a political tourist and goes out on a listening tour.
He discovers people don't like Trump but were otherwise deeply divided. Yikes!
His field report: moderate Democrats could defect if Warren or Sanders is the nominee.
A college classmate was inspired by the Trump presidency to do the simplest and most direct act of political tourism: to talk with people and ask them what they think. The semi-retired lawyer called on acquaintances across the political spectrum from Massachusetts and other states, in his network of friends and clients. It was no surprise to him that a couple of them admitted they voted for Trump out of dislike for Hillary, but that not a single one now liked Trump.
What surprised him was that his interviewees actively dislike two of the Democrats currently leading in the polls, Warren and Sanders.
Warren is number one with college professors, with liberals, with teachers, with nurses, with people with a college degree, with whites. Warren's constituency skews "professional." Warren would have been a natural choice for the people he called. It wasn't.
She frightened them. So did Bernie.
The candidate who did best with my classmate's friends was Joe Biden. My classmate's observations are consistent with the observation of scientific polls on this race. Biden crowds are smaller, the social media chatter is much less, there is less energy and excitement. Young Americans see Biden as the walking dead, out of touch, slow on his feet, mired in the swampy status quo. The Des Moines Register published a poll this morning: Click: Biden's support skews old
With all that, there remains a quiet reservoir of support for Biden--or at least his brand of politics.
Koster's big take-away was realization that some of his interviewees were not at all sure they would vote for the Democrat if Warren or Sanders was the nominee. Moreover, they were already discouraged. With 24 Democrats in the race they were still looking for something different.
He wrote me:
"In answering my questions, one acquaintance described three currently leading candidates using the separate words “unexciting” for one, “too liberal” for a second, and “scary” for the third. This person expressed interest/excitement that “the black” and the “gay vet” were running. When such descriptions are based solely on identity, I suspect support is not very deep.
ABT--Anyone But Trump--will not be on the ticket: real people will be, with their personal backgrounds, resumes, foibles, and actual policy positions. Anyone But Trump may not equate to support of a living individual who proposes Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, court packing, abolition of the Electoral College, slavery reparations, or a wealth tax."
His interviewees skewed old, educated, and prosperous. That is my classmate's network--a portion of the anti-Trump electorate. He sends up a warning flag about the risks of a Warren or Sanders nomination.
Koster's interviewees have something to lose. They had long professional careers. They have health insurance. They own homes. They are retired comfortably or on track for that.
They are among the constituencies Trump is already targeting, seniors who are doing OK. They will raise your taxes! They will put your health care payments into the hands of government bureaucrats! They will try to break up the banks, regulate the drug companies, and eliminate the health insurance industry! Those are true statements. That is exactly what Warren and Sanders hope to do.
Twenty six thousand people showed up in Queens this weekend to cheer Sanders saying that very thing.
Others hear it and think it sounds extreme. They want reform, not "structural change" and not a "political revolution."
Warren is number one with college professors, with liberals, with teachers, with nurses, with people with a college degree, with whites. Warren's constituency skews "professional." Warren would have been a natural choice for the people he called. It wasn't.
She frightened them. So did Bernie.
The candidate who did best with my classmate's friends was Joe Biden. My classmate's observations are consistent with the observation of scientific polls on this race. Biden crowds are smaller, the social media chatter is much less, there is less energy and excitement. Young Americans see Biden as the walking dead, out of touch, slow on his feet, mired in the swampy status quo. The Des Moines Register published a poll this morning: Click: Biden's support skews old
With all that, there remains a quiet reservoir of support for Biden--or at least his brand of politics.
Koster's big take-away was realization that some of his interviewees were not at all sure they would vote for the Democrat if Warren or Sanders was the nominee. Moreover, they were already discouraged. With 24 Democrats in the race they were still looking for something different.He wrote me:
"In answering my questions, one acquaintance described three currently leading candidates using the separate words “unexciting” for one, “too liberal” for a second, and “scary” for the third. This person expressed interest/excitement that “the black” and the “gay vet” were running. When such descriptions are based solely on identity, I suspect support is not very deep.
ABT--Anyone But Trump--will not be on the ticket: real people will be, with their personal backgrounds, resumes, foibles, and actual policy positions. Anyone But Trump may not equate to support of a living individual who proposes Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal, court packing, abolition of the Electoral College, slavery reparations, or a wealth tax."
His interviewees skewed old, educated, and prosperous. That is my classmate's network--a portion of the anti-Trump electorate. He sends up a warning flag about the risks of a Warren or Sanders nomination.
Koster's interviewees have something to lose. They had long professional careers. They have health insurance. They own homes. They are retired comfortably or on track for that.
They are among the constituencies Trump is already targeting, seniors who are doing OK. They will raise your taxes! They will put your health care payments into the hands of government bureaucrats! They will try to break up the banks, regulate the drug companies, and eliminate the health insurance industry! Those are true statements. That is exactly what Warren and Sanders hope to do.
Twenty six thousand people showed up in Queens this weekend to cheer Sanders saying that very thing.
Others hear it and think it sounds extreme. They want reform, not "structural change" and not a "political revolution."
5 comments:
The irony is enormous. In what has been described as the most consequential election in 100 years, where the incumbent Tweeter in Chief has destroyed decades of norms, abused power for his enrichment, trampled the Constitution, and perhaps permanently degraded the status of the other two branches government with an imperial executive theory, the ABT crowd is willing to sit out the election if Warren or Sanders is the nominee, likely because it is afraid that they may have to pay a wealth tax or cede their favored position. It's the epitome of "I've got mine, so screw you!"
Elders, don't you know that our work at this age is release - release of political power, status, the death grip on the extractive economics killing the planet, etc., etc., etc. You can't take it with you ...
When will they ever learn?
Just like 2016, if Democrats don't vote for the Democratic nominee Republicans will win.
The disintegration of the Republican party as they increasingly embraced bigots, religious zealots and racists has left a lot of people stranded, like flotsam on the beach after the tide goes out. It's not all that comfortable anymore to be a moderate Democrat. One could vote for a Clinton or a Kerry and feel good about themselves. Obama? Uh....OK.
Sanders? Warren?
Yeah, scary.
Look, the Republican hard right (Regressive) shift revealed that a lot Democrats are in the no mans land of the mushy middle and exposed the fact that their values are more aligned with Newt than they thought. Time to rethink what it means to be a Democrat and more importantly what Progressive values have meant historically and what they offer for the future.
In other words, one must now actually chose a side, and take a hard look at which one Sen. Biden is actually on.
There is a reason that Sens. Sanders and Warren message is resonating and moderates who resist it may just be in denial.
First off: Sanders isn’t a Democrat, but caucuses with the Democrats. Secondly: Warren is a scold in the same “let’s start a revolution” camp. Both are too old and would be over their heads in the presidency. Someone once told be the definition of a leader is they have followers. True Sanders and Warren have followers but not among the rank and file average Joe and Jane voter. Biden is also too old but hasn't had a heart attack or any other ailment I know of at this writing. Couple Biden to Amy and I think you’ve got yourself a Democratic ticket that will win against Trump?Pence.
First of all, how can a Sanders or a Warren be half as scary as trump?? And usually (except for trump,there are checks and balances to prevent the most extreme programs from being implemented. Congress and the courts would weigh in. Maybe a default candidate that everyone is overlooking, is kamala Harris. She did draw the crowds at first, and has faltered, but if she were the nominee, that support would pick up.
I would like Pete as VP choice, just to see him debate Pence! What fun!
I disagree with one person above, that Warren would be overwhelmed by the job. she is NOT Hillary, and Not Sanders. I'm still for her.
But then I am one of those poor but educated democrats.
"His interviewees skewed old, educated, and prosperous." I'm not surprised and I'm betting the pro Biden fellow fits in that demographic. Those mostly young folk standing behind Bernie in Queens know they are getting shafted by the financialization of our economy. In the 90's and 2000's you survived by taking out an equity loan, now you kick the can down the road with student loans (thanks to Joe Biden, no longer qualifying for bankruptcy). The game is debt and indentured servitude and those who own enough stock based on the Ponzi scheme are the winners. Let's stop calling these Democrats moderate and centrists; let's call them what they are: "liberal corporatists." Bernie' stents (many "elders" have them) just gave him a new lease on life; I hope his campaign aides can keep up with him. And I must remind folks that the revolution is not about Bernie Sanders; it is a movement that began with the Battle for Seattle, followed by Occupy and now Our Revolution and the Green New Deal which connects climate, jobs and equity. Real change is coming...not "hopey changey change."
Andy Seles
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