Era of Crisis

Rendezvous with destiny.

There is a school of thought that the broad outlines of human events are shaped by an overarching timetable. 

The theory is that nations and cultures go through periods of rebirth, growth, maturity, and then a crisis that shapes some new status quo. The exact details are fleshed out based on the vicissitudes of elections, climate events, technological change, wars, and the personalities of leaders, but the big picture is set.  

According to futurist authors William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book The Fourth Turning, those life-cycle periods fall into approximately-eighty-year cycles of four generational “turnings.” The authors believe we are now in the final or fourth turning, which is that time of crisis when the whole system turns into something new, initiating a new era or "saeculum."

High school classmate Wayne Taylor is a molecular biologist, medical researcher, and university professor at Charles Drew University and UCLA. He collaborates with Citizens Climate Lobby to slow climate change and promote solar energy for a livable world. As a holistic “big picture” thinker concerned with ecology and the future, Wayne is a close student of the structure outlined by Strauss and Howe. Taylor wrote me predictions about upcoming events. He writes that if we get through this crisis alive, and if we work together to preserve our democracy and vote, we just might come out the other end better for it.

Are his predictions wrong? If readers think they know better, present yours in the comment section.

Taylor

Guest Post by Wayne Taylor                         

                         Consequences of the election of Trump

What can we expect in the next four years of Trump’s second term as US President? Long-term view: Cheer Up. But for now, buckle up!

It will be a chaotic and divisive time of crisis in America, with economic hardship, war, resistance, and then resurgence of Democracy hopefully in 2028. Trump will appoint MAGA extremists as cabinet heads to dismantle essential U.S. agencies like DOJ, CIA, EPA, NIH, HHS, and FDA. Anti-scientific policies from anti-vaxers like Kennedy will cause terrible health outcomes, eroding trust in agencies like the FDA. Trump will install criminals to weaponize the Justice Department to attack his critics but dismiss valid charges against himself and fellow insurrectionists.

Marginalized Americans who voted to elect Trump will be those hurt most by the coming crisis. People wanted change, so they voted against incumbent Democrats; but they will be appalled by the dumpster-fire from Trump’s mean and short-sighted policies.

Economic Hardship. Trump’s full imposition of tariffs on imported goods will impose a sales tax on Americans of about $3,500 per family. This would largely increase monetary inflation which could by 2026 damage the presently-solid economy. Protective tariffs can be beneficial, but Trump would use tariffs to selectively enrich himself, and erode the U.S. economy.

Our economy will shrink due to Trump imposing massive deportation of hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers needed for essential jobs. This lack of willing workers could cause many farms and businesses to fail. To capture these mainly Hispanic folks, ICE Police would do house-to-house searches and racial-profiling in minority work sites. This will again, as in 2017, rip families apart, separate kids from parents, and disrespect older folks, including undocumented asylum-refugees.

MAGA Republicans in Congress might succeed in Trump’s promise to kill Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, seriously hurting our economy by ending good jobs and reversing climate change remediation, to prop-up fossil industries. That would delay the economically inevitable transition from fossil fuels to less-expensive solar and wind energy. But this would not stop it, since coal is already dead. MAGA hubris and over-reach in this extreme agenda will inflame popular revulsion of Trump and resistance against his corrupt cronies.

War. After Trump takes over the U.S. government in 2025, he will withdraw military support from Ukraine, by ending funding of weapons. He will divide NATO. Trump will pose as a “Big Man” bully with Russian dictator Putin to impose a truce on Ukraine, favoring Russia annexing the Crimean and Donbas regions. We will experience worldwide wars as Putin, sensing Western weakness, attacks Armenia, Poland, or Estonia to “regain” territory. NATO and the EU would fight to defend against Russia. The stress on Russians could foment civil war against Putin. In Israel, Netanyahu will inflame the Israeli-Iranian war to retain power and escape prison. China might attack Taiwan or seize Sudan in Africa. Nuclear war is a possibility.

World War III in forms other than a nuclear exchange is another consequence of international chaos. The United States would finally go to war to support the EU after 2028, to save ourselves and European allies from attacks by Russia’s Putin, an evil Fascist like Hitler. We would also help our allies Japan and Taiwan withstand Chinese aggression. Some forms of war would stimulate the economy, but explode national debt, causing unimaginable suffering and lost lives.

Resistance. Trump will be branded as un-American for colluding on the wrong side in the war to help authoritarian dictator Putin and China’s premier Xi. Congress will renew legislation for Trump’s huge tax-breaks to billionaires, but the public will see that as massive corruption. Trump will excite his base in the culture war by pardoning criminal Insurrectionists who invaded the Capitol on January 6th. Most people will be outraged at this immoral President, causing social and political backlash against incumbent MAGA politicians. This resistance will strengthen political support for Democratic leaders, especially men like Governor Newsom, who will have protected Californians from the oppressive dictates of Trump’s administration. Governors of blue states will work together to resist un-Constitutional federal authority. 

Resurgence of Democracy. In the U.S. election of 2028, Republican incumbents will be fired as a blue wave sweeps Democrats into power. Hopefully, if we win the war (the fourth turning crisis) the result will be the demise of MAGA pols at home and defeat of fascistic dictators worldwide. The winners will then establish new normal policies, including better wages for workers, women’s empowerment, renewed respect for science education and truth, with civil rights and freedom for everyone including minority citizens. It’s "Springtime in America," as the new saecular cycle begins.

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